USAF should buy newly designed air refuelers to meet China threat: Report

WASHINGTON — The US Air Force requires a slew of investments to shore up its air refueling fleet, from targeted infrastructure spending to designing a new tanker with greater range and fuel offload capacity, according to a think tank report. 

Published today, the report by Hudson Institute experts Timothy Walton and Shane Dennin — titled Resilient Reach: Redesigning Aerial Refueling for Contested Global Operations — offers a comprehensive view of the Air Force’s air refueling capacity. The service currently relies on “vulnerable forward bases” and tankers with insufficient range, increasing the risk of defeat in a direct conflict with China, the report says.

Among its findings, the report notes that the Boeing-built KC-46 Pegasus — which is slowly replacing the Air Force’s Eisenhower-era KC-135 Stratotanker — “lacks the range, offload and survivability” to prevail in a conflict with Beijing. To retain the Air Force’s aerial refueling advantage, the report recommends three key steps for future tanker planning:

• Develop and field a medium-sized tanker with greater range and fuel capacity, such as a blended-wing body (BWB) aircraft. Assuming a fleet of 510 tankers, acquiring 260 KC-46s and 250 BWB refuelers could cost an estimated $397.6 billion across R&D, procurement and sustainment — about $15.5 billion less than simply buying only the same number of Pegasus aircraft, according to the report.
• Strengthen airfield resilience with infrastructure investments and improved defenses, along with steps like adopting greater distributed fuel storage. The authors estimate these measures could cumulatively cost approximately $35.5 billion. 
• Equip tankers with new mission systems to boost connectivity, improve operations and aid self-defense. The report estimates these upgrades could cost roughly $13 billion, including $8 billion necessary to outfit a fleet of 260 KC-46s.

Following what military officials have described as the platform’s success in recent combat operations like Epic Fury, “[t]here’s a temptation for the Air Force to continue buying KC-46s,” Walton told Breaking Defense in an interview ahead of the report’s release. Still, “there’s clearly a need for a new approach that goes beyond what the KC-46 provides.” 

Boeing did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Air Force last year unveiled plans to order up to 75 additional KC-46s while the service studies options for a next-gen tanker. Walton reasoned that 75 aircraft “should be the upper limit of that buy” and argued that the service should prioritize developing a new tanker. Depending on future budget constraints, that approach could require trade-offs such as trimming KC-46 procurement.

The report outlines five different approaches to the Air Force’s tanker fleet, ranging from purchasing only Pegasus aircraft to fielding a mix of KC-46s, KC-135s and specialized, low-observable refuelers designed to offload fuel closer to the fight. Though each approach has its own strengths, Walton highlighted fielding a medium-sized BWB aircraft as a desirable and “fiscally achievable plan” — adding that such an aircraft could enter service around 2032. 

The Air Force is funding a BWB demonstrator aircraft designed by startup JetZero, which military officials have described as a potential candidate for future mobility missions. Walton said the report used a “representative” BWB model, and that while JetZero’s aircraft may fit the bill, other vendors could offer viable designs. 

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Iranian strikes that have destroyed US aircraft on the ground also underscore the need for more resilient base infrastructure, including hardened fuel storage and aircraft shelters, Walton said. Top military brass have championed passive and active defenses at airfields, but not everyone agrees with measures to build more hardened aircraft shelters, including Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Ken Wilsbach.

“It’s probably most contentious to assert that tanker aircraft should also be under consideration for hardened aircraft shelters, or at least hangars that can cover them from observation,” Walton said. “But I think in light of what we’ve seen from Operation Epic Fury, it’s necessary.”

Walton argued that the Air Force could fund more resilient infrastructure through existing plans to increase spending on facilities, especially if those funding levels are sustained. As large aircraft that serve a critical need, refueling assets are often seen as high-priority targets, though Walton noted that hardened shelters have generally been built for fighters.

“It’s not necessarily more money, but it’s prioritizing the amount of money in the out-years,” he said. 

The Air Force is incrementally equipping its mobility aircraft with modern communications equipment and exploring self-defense systems that could defeat enemy attacks. But the service has previously failed to meet ambitious targets for fleet connectivity, and Walton acknowledged that limited resources could constrain the report’s recommendations for new mission systems, including communications, self-defense and autonomy technologies.

“Moving forward, the Air Force will have to weigh its available budget to spend” on new mission systems alongside competing priorities, he said, like resilient infrastructure and fielding a clean-sheet tanker. “And that might lead to some hard decisions.”