Western Media: "Salvo Warfare" May Change the Nature of Middle Eastern Conflicts

According to a report by Reference News on March 9, the Spanish website "Confidential" published an article on March 5 titled "Welcome to the 'Salvo Warfare': Can Iran Challenge the Combined Forces of the United States and Israel?" The authors are Enrique Andrés Pretel and Lucas Proto. The full text is excerpted as follows:

On the 5th, the joint strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran entered their sixth day, and both sides still face many critical questions: How long will this war last? Can Iran withstand the combined military power of the U.S. and Israel? First, it is necessary to analyze the type of conflict currently unfolding in the Middle East—welcome to the realm of "salvo warfare."

The characteristic of "salvo warfare" is the large-scale engagement of missiles, drones, and various munitions. This war reflects a dual game between both sides regarding beyond-visual-range precision strike capabilities and defensive forces.

Spanish military analyst Guillermo Prida said: "The proliferation of sensor technology has made the battlefield transparent, allowing both sides to observe enemy movements in real-time and in detail. Coupled with the large-scale diffusion of precision-guided weapons, this means that any visible target could be destroyed: frigates, tanks, fighter jets, troop assembly areas. Therefore, whoever can gain the salvo advantage can win the war."

Several premises need to be clarified first. First, in the eternal struggle between spear and shield, the shield is always more valuable, takes longer to produce, and is harder to obtain. Each of Iran's drones may only cost a few thousand or tens of thousands of dollars, while interceptors from Israel and the U.S. are worth millions of dollars, and the cost of interceptors is far lower than the weapon systems they protect, such as aircraft carriers and frigates, as well as infrastructure like military bases, refineries, or airports.

The second factor is what Prida refers to as the "power of precise balance." He likens it to an ancient strategic principle: nuclear deterrence, which states that if a smaller country possesses nuclear weapons, it can stand on equal footing with a major power in terms of deterrence. In this case, a country can overcome the significant economic and military asymmetry with its opponent through the diffusion of lower-cost, smarter weapon systems.

This is changing the nature of warfare and the strategic landscape. Mechanized maneuver warfare is no longer mainstream, and conflicts between large platforms have given way to mid- to long-range exchanges, as demonstrated on the battlefield in Ukraine.

The third factor to consider is that "salvo warfare" cannot change a country's regime like a ground invasion can. The role of long-range attacks is at most to weaken the opponent and then allow a more favorable opposition to take over, or to bring a successor within the same regime who is willing to negotiate and make concessions to power. In the case of Iran, although Khamenei and some other political and military leaders died in the initial bombings, the aforementioned situation has not yet occurred.

Given this, can Iran truly continue to counter the world's most powerful military, the United States, and Israel, which has the finest military in the Middle East, on the battlefield of missile exchanges? According to the latest estimates from the Israel Defense Forces, Iran possesses about 2,500 ballistic and cruise missiles. Other analysts estimate the number to be between 3,000 and 6,000. Additionally, military experts believe Iran has tens of thousands of drones in storage.

Iran's strategy is to use drones and cheap missiles to exhaust the opponent's defense systems, in order to strike high-value targets with more advanced weapons. Whether this tit-for-tat conflict can continue depends on its production capacity. According to estimates from the Israel Defense Forces, in the 8 months from last year's hostilities to the current outbreak of war, Iran's arsenal has added as many as 1,000 missiles (125 per month). Meanwhile, Iran may produce up to 10,000 suicide drones each month.

At the current rate, Iran's missile stockpile will begin to face issues in less than a month. However, they can still continue to use drones to harass the enemy, although the destructive power will diminish.

What about the United States? Senior officials have warned the White House that if attacks on Iran continue at the current pace for more than 10 days, certain key reserves may be depleted. Production speed is the main limiting factor. In 2024, the annual production of the "Patriot Advanced Capability"-3 segment enhanced missiles is about 620 units, with each missile costing millions of dollars and requiring complex assembly and integration processes. Additionally, Western countries' arsenals have already been strained due to the four-year war in Ukraine, which has consumed a large number of such missiles from Ukraine's air defense systems.

Israel faces a similar dilemma. Before the current conflict erupted, Israel's "Arrow"-3 missile defense system already had insufficient stockpiles. If the conflict continues, Tel Aviv will have to decide which targets need priority protection. (Translated by Wang Meng)