What is Japan's Intention in Introducing Attack-type Unmanned Submarines? Expert Analysis

According to news from Japan on the 24th, the Japanese government plans to officially revise the "Three Security Documents" through a cabinet meeting by the end of this year, and it is expected to propose an increase in defense spending in line with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's stance. Additionally, according to news from Japan on the 27th, several relevant individuals revealed that the Japanese government has begun researching the comprehensive development and introduction of unmanned submarines capable of anti-ship attacks, as part of the so-called strengthening of the defense system on the Pacific side.

Recently, Japan has not only gradually increased its defense spending but also introduced various weapons and equipment to strengthen its so-called "defense capabilities." What are the main considerations behind Japan's preparation to introduce attack-type unmanned submarines? What impact will this have on the regional situation?

Japan aims to create a counter-network in the Western Pacific

Meng Mingming, Assistant Researcher at the Political Research Office of the Japan Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: I believe Japan's introduction of unmanned submarines and other equipment has the following purposes: First, from the perspective of geopolitical strategic goals, Japan's core consideration is to build a so-called enduring defense depth on the Pacific side. With the continuous rise of China's naval power and the ongoing enhancement of its blue-water capabilities, Japan believes it needs to comprehensively monitor and impede the long-range projection of the Chinese navy over a broader area. In the past, Japan's focus on countering China was mainly concentrated in the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, but this time, by deploying unmanned submarines and other equipment primarily on the Pacific side, the goal is to rely on key maritime areas around the Ogasawara Islands in the Philippine Sea to construct a larger submerged monitoring and strike network. It hopes to constrain and compress the operational space of the Chinese navy in the broader Western Pacific, providing more leverage for its maritime confrontation with China.

Japan accelerates military transformation to build an offensive collaborative system

Meng Mingming, Assistant Researcher at the Political Research Office of the Japan Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Second, from the perspective of the concept of military operational transformation, Japan is accelerating the construction of an offensive operational system that integrates manned and unmanned systems. The unmanned submarines envisioned by Japan are not only capable of reconnaissance but can also carry weapons, and there are plans for deep interconnectivity and cooperation with naval vessels and conventional submarines. Due to the low cost of unmanned systems and the reduced risk of personnel casualties, they are very suitable for prolonged attrition warfare in high-intensity conflicts. This means that Japan's defense policy is rapidly transitioning towards possessing substantial counterattack capabilities, reflecting Japan's strategic intention not only to be able to wage war but also to engage in long-term warfare.

Japan intends to seize future technology and strengthen Japan-U.S. strategic coordination

Meng Mingming, Assistant Researcher at the Political Research Office of the Japan Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Third, from the perspective of future war preparation intentions, Japan aims to seize the initiative in advanced technologies for future warfare. In the conflicts in Ukraine and between the U.S. and Iran, unmanned systems have shone brightly. Japan hopes to narrow the gap with countries like China and the U.S. in military technology by introducing and developing unmanned systems, thereby enhancing its military capabilities. By introducing offensive unmanned systems, Japan also hopes to demonstrate its strategic value to the United States, thereby securing closer military strategic coordination between Japan and the U.S.

Japan uses technology to offset demographic disadvantages and advance a new militaristic system

Meng Mingming, Assistant Researcher at the Political Research Office of the Japan Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Finally, from the perspective of domestic political needs in Japan, the country is currently facing severe aging, and the Self-Defense Forces have long been understaffed, with the Japanese public being highly sensitive to personnel casualties. By vigorously developing unmanned systems, Japan aims to use technological advantages to offset demographic disadvantages and maintain the scale of its combat forces; on the other hand, it also seeks to avoid the attention of domestic peace and anti-war forces, thereby advancing the construction of a new militaristic system more quickly and smoothly.

Japan's actions will exacerbate regional security tensions

Meng Mingming, Assistant Researcher at the Political Research Office of the Japan Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Although Japan's actions are cloaked in the guise of defense, they will only have a more detrimental impact on the regional situation. They will not only significantly intensify strategic mutual suspicion between China and Japan but also introduce new complex variables to the security situation in East Asia. This severely undermines the spirit of Japan's pacifist constitution and caters to the confrontational behavior of alliances, which not only fails to achieve its proclaimed defense goals but also compresses the strategic space of relevant countries, plunging the region into a deeper security dilemma and making Japan itself the biggest source of risk to peace and stability in East Asia.