What Political "Calculations" Are Hidden Behind Japan's Plans to Develop Nuclear Submarines?

According to Japanese sources on the 7th, insiders say that the Japanese government plans to revise the "Three Security Documents" within the year, considering the inclusion of content related to "exploring the introduction of nuclear-powered submarines," which has sparked opposition within Japan.

What are the political "calculations" of the Japanese government?

Meng Mingming, an assistant researcher at the Japan Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the Japanese government's attempt to include research on introducing nuclear submarines in the revision of the "Three Security Documents" reveals the following political "calculations":

First, the Japanese government aims to use a "salami-slicing" approach to break the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles."

Right-wing forces led by former Prime Minister Taro Aso have been advocating for a so-called "reflection on the Three Non-Nuclear Principles." The Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno and Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi have also repeatedly stated that Japan should discuss the possession of nuclear submarines.

However, as a defeated nation in World War II, the Japanese public has long been influenced by the pacifist constitution and anti-nuclear sentiment. If the current government openly attempts to introduce nuclear submarines, it will inevitably provoke strong criticism and backlash both domestically and internationally. Therefore, the government uses low-sensitivity language such as "research" and "discussion" to test external limits, reducing domestic and international vigilance and aversion to nuclear military issues, with the aim of gradually normalizing and legitimizing the untouchable nuclear taboo, leaving a platform for future policy discussions.

Second, the Japanese government seeks to completely break the current "defensive defense" boundaries and pursue offensive, sustained confrontation capabilities in deep sea and open ocean.

Unlike conventional submarines that are positioned close to shore, nuclear submarines have long underwater endurance and the ability to covertly deliver long-range strike weapons, making them highly threatening offensive weapons that can substantively build a military system capable of combat and prolonged warfare in the open ocean.

Third, the Japanese government's nuclear ambitions are also a risky maneuver taking advantage of U.S. strategic adjustments, seeking to break free from the post-war system.

As the U.S. struggles to maintain its hegemonic power, it has intentionally supported Japan's "strategic autonomy" in recent years to share the burden. Among these options, allowing Japan to possess nuclear capabilities to maintain and extend U.S. deterrence in East Asia is one possibility. Japan also hopes to leverage the indulgence of the U.S. and the West to break the nuclear taboo, accelerate its departure from the post-war system, and realize its ambition of becoming a military power.

What are the dangers of this move by Japan?

Meng Mingming believes that as the only country to have been bombed with atomic bombs, if Japan openly possesses nuclear submarines, it will completely tear away its long-claimed image as a "peaceful nation," sharply deepening strategic doubts among neighboring countries, pushing the East Asian security situation into a more uncontrollable predicament, and causing serious impacts on the international non-proliferation system, threatening the stability of the international situation.