Regarding the election, US media reports that the US military may resume operations against Iran.

Source: Global Times
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Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, October 8 - According to a report by the American Axios news website on the 7th, the Pentagon instructed the U.S. Central Command several days ago to prepare for the resumption of significant military operations against Iran. Sources from the U.S. and Israel indicated that the operations could restart in early November, before the U.S. midterm elections, and may even occur a week earlier than the Israeli parliamentary elections on October 27.

The report stated that the Pentagon has not set a specific date for the resumption of operations against Iran, and U.S. President Trump has not yet made a final decision. A White House official, who wished to remain anonymous, stated that Trump "holds all the cards" and can use all options at any time. A Pentagon official mentioned that the Defense Department's task is to develop military options and present them to Trump.

Earlier on the 7th, The Atlantic reported that Trump is considering airstrikes against Iran before the midterm elections.

During a speech on the 6th in Sparrows Point, Maryland, Trump stated that military action against Iran "must come to an end," adding that "the only question to consider is in what manner, soft or hard."

The Axios news website stated that resuming significant military operations means large-scale bombing of Iran's energy, infrastructure, and nuclear facility targets. The U.S. and Israel are likely to act in coordination, with the Israeli military also participating.

On the 7th, Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. An Israeli official stated that the call took place after Netanyahu convened the national security team to discuss policy towards Iran that day. Netanyahu also spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio on the 5th.

Trump's national security team met for several hours at Camp David on the 2nd to discuss issues including the Iran conflict. An Israeli official noted that part of the meeting focused on the potential resumption of military operations, but Rubio stated afterward that the meeting focused on "long-term" foreign policy planning.

Since the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28, the U.S. has conducted airstrikes, maritime blockades, and economic pressure against Iran, with sporadic conflicts continuing, resulting in a stalemate of neither war nor peace. Axios reported that discussions about resuming military action are increasing due to the lack of progress in negotiations mediated by a third party between the U.S. and Iran. Some Israeli officials believe that the likelihood of resuming military action before the midterm elections is low, but cannot be ruled out; however, the possibility of resuming after the elections has "significantly increased."

If the Iran conflict escalates again in the next three to four weeks, it could impact the U.S. midterm elections due to rising oil prices and other factors. A report by AFP on the 5th indicated that various polls reflect that American voters are generally concerned about their "wallets." Among these, the Iran conflict, due to its effect on energy prices, is becoming increasingly unpopular domestically, turning into a domestic issue that affects American livelihoods.

Considering the possibility of retaliatory strikes from Iran, the Israeli parliamentary elections may also be affected. A renewed escalation of conflict or heightened tensions could politically benefit Netanyahu. At this stage, the political situation in Israel is tightly contested. The latest polls show that Netanyahu's Likud party is only slightly ahead of the anti-Netanyahu camp led by the Integrity Party, unable to secure a majority of seats. (Ocean)

Classification
Region
West Asia
Analytical Domain
Operational
Primary Category / Secondary Categories
Military Operations / Political-Military
Subcategory
Airstrike
SALUTE Report
Size
Not specified
Activity
Preparation for potential military operations against Iran
Location
Iran
Unit
U.S. Armed Forces, Israeli Defense Forces
Time
November 2023, possibly before October 27, 2023
Equipment
AirstrikesBombs
Summary

The Pentagon has instructed U.S. Central Command to prepare for potential military operations against Iran, possibly resuming airstrikes before the November midterm elections. U.S. President Trump has not finalized his decision, but discussions indicate a focus on significant strikes against Iranian energy and nuclear infrastructure. Coordination with Israeli forces is likely, as rising oil prices from renewed conflict could influence U.S. domestic politics.

Key Facts
  • Pentagon directed U.S. Central Command to prepare for operations against Iran.
  • Military actions may resume before U.S. midterm elections in November.
  • Trump has not made a final decision on military action against Iran.
  • U.S. and Israel may coordinate military operations against Iranian targets.
  • Rising oil prices due to conflict could impact U.S. elections.