Will the US and Israel Launch Attacks on Iran Again?

[Global Times Special Correspondent Chen Yang] Against the backdrop of rumors that the United States and Israel are preparing to launch airstrikes against Iran again, Iran announced on the 25th that it had shot down a U.S. military "LUCAS" low-cost drone, further drawing attention to the situation. Multiple foreign media outlets believe that various signs indicate that the U.S. and Israel are intensifying preparations for a new round of airstrikes, but the ammunition shortage issue that has troubled the Pentagon remains unresolved.

U.S. and Israeli Targeted Preparations Continue

According to Al Jazeera, the "LUCAS" drone is a product of the U.S. military's reverse engineering of Iran's "Shahed-136" long-range suicide drone, with costs significantly lower than traditional precision-guided munitions. Notably, U.S. drones have recently been active around Iran, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated on the 20th that its air defense forces shot down a U.S. MQ-9 "Reaper" drone over the Strait of Hormuz on the night of the 19th. Analysts believe that the U.S. military's ongoing drone activities are intensifying reconnaissance and electronic intelligence collection on key Iranian targets—an important step prior to military strike operations.

The U.S. "Power" website's "Battle Zone" channel also mentioned that there has been frequent fighter jet activity over Iraq recently, deepening speculation about a new round of airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. According to U.S. Axios, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin made a surprise visit to Israel recently and met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leading to speculation that the two sides may have discussed actions to strike Iran. Subsequently, dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refueling aircraft flew over Syrian and Iraqi airspace from the 19th to the 20th, turning back to Israel just before entering Iranian airspace, with flight paths highly similar to those of attacks targeting Iran.

The "Power" website's "Battle Zone" channel further analyzed that Israeli activities over Iraq are likely to "become a prelude to significant aerial operations against Iran." At the same time, conducting flight missions relatively close to the Iranian border will provide opportunities to gather intelligence on the current status and deployment of Iran's air defense systems.

Combat Capability Dilemma Remains Unresolved

The U.S. New York Times reported that U.S. officials and others familiar with the discussions revealed that the U.S. and Israeli militaries have "formulated specific plans to strike Iran again after the U.S. midterm elections." The report stated that the U.S. and Israel are planning "a brief but intensive operation" lasting three to five days, with targets potentially including Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenals. Officials supporting the operation indicated that another round of large-scale attacks could push the Iranian economy to the brink of collapse and force the country to make diplomatic concessions.

However, there is widespread skepticism about this. One of the significant reasons for the previous gradual reduction or halt of airstrikes against Iran was the shortage of troops and excessive ammunition consumption. So far, these dilemmas have not been fundamentally alleviated. For example, U.S. military bases around Iran have suffered heavy losses in Iran's ongoing retaliatory airstrikes, forcing U.S. aircraft to take off from air bases farther away from Iran, such as Jordan, and requiring aerial refueling to maintain long-range strikes against Iran, greatly increasing the complexity of operations and reliance on refueling aircraft. The Israeli Air Force's refueling fleet is outdated, and launching long-range strikes against Iran also requires assistance from U.S. refueling aircraft, but currently, U.S. refueling aircraft have not been redeployed en masse to the Middle East.

Another main force for previous airstrikes against Iran was the U.S. Navy's carrier strike groups. The U.S. Navy has assembled the "Bush" and "Washington" carrier strike groups in the Middle East. U.S. Fox News reported that the "Roosevelt" carrier strike group and the "Makin Island" amphibious readiness group, which carries the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, are heading to the Middle East, expected to arrive by the end of November. However, according to previously released U.S. Navy plans, the "Roosevelt" is replacing the "Washington," which will return to the Western Pacific, meaning that the U.S. Navy will only be able to assemble three aircraft carriers in the Middle East for a very short time in the future.

Moreover, the large-scale airstrikes envisioned by the U.S. and Israel will inevitably face fierce retaliation from Iran, and whether the duration of the new conflict will truly be limited to "three to five days," as envisioned by the U.S. and Israel, remains uncertain. Unlike the situation when airstrikes were launched at the end of February this year, the ammunition for the U.S. and Israeli air defense missile systems has already been severely depleted. A report released by the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) in October acknowledged that the ammunition consumption resulting from airstrikes against Iran has led to a "strategic inventory shortage" for U.S. forces, with industrial capacity facing bottlenecks in replenishing ammunition, and the quantity of ammunition produced in just six months far from filling the gap.

Iran Issues Countermeasure Warnings

In response to the possibility of renewed airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel, Iran has also issued warnings in kind. Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman Ramazani recently warned that seven major underwater cables cross the Strait of Hormuz, implying that Iran could damage these cables if attacked. At the same time, there have been consecutive attacks or mines encountered by tankers attempting to pass through the strait. The British Maritime Trade Operations Office stated on the 23rd that the volume of vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, as recorded by the agency, is about 70% lower than pre-conflict levels, indicating that the maritime security threat level in the area remains "serious."

Additionally, there are many voices of doubt even within the U.S. and Israel. An Israeli Defense Forces official told the "Power" website's "Battle Zone" channel, "Trump and Netanyahu previously described the results of earlier rounds of airstrikes as decisive, even as a complete victory, emphasizing the total destruction of Iran's ballistic missile capabilities, its production and supply chains, and nuclear infrastructure. This raises an obvious question: If the results were as decisive as they claimed, what has changed now that makes it necessary to confront again?"