Yemen's Houthi Forces Capture Mocha, Changing the Dynamics of Red Sea Shipping Control

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, September 11 - The Yemeni government forces and Houthi armed groups confirmed on the 10th that the Houthis captured the strategic Red Sea location and port city of Mocha that day. The change of control over this key stronghold could directly reshape the geopolitical landscape of Red Sea shipping.

Strategic stronghold in the Red Sea changes hands

Local residents in Mocha told media reporters that on the 10th, Houthi armed personnel were seen everywhere in the city, and many shops were closed. Some residents left the city, fleeing to the Yemeni government’s base in Aden.

Mocha is located about 80 kilometers from the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which had long been garrisoned by military forces supporting the Yemeni government. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is another important shipping route in the Middle East, accounting for about 12% of global goods traffic. After the outbreak of the Iran conflict at the end of February, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was obstructed, increasing the importance of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for global oil supply.

This photo provided by the Houthi Media Center on August 9 shows Houthi armed forces launching drones at an unknown location. Xinhua News Agency (Photo provided by Houthi Media Center)

This summer, the Houthis intensified their offensive against government forces and announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, which supports the Yemeni government. Before launching this round of offensives, the Houthis had already controlled large areas of northern Yemen, including the capital Sana'a and the important Red Sea port of Hodeidah, but had not yet taken control of the coastal areas directly overlooking the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

The Saudi-led coalition announced on the 9th that the Houthis launched ballistic missiles and drones at several cities in southern Saudi Arabia. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree stated on the 10th that Saudi Arabia had carried out 64 airstrikes on Yemen in the past 24 hours. The Houthi-controlled Masirah TV reported that the southwestern Taiz province, where Mocha is located, was hit by 10 rounds of airstrikes.

Several residents of Mocha said that the Yemeni government forces launched airstrikes targeting Houthi reinforcements in western Taiz province. The Yemeni military urged civilians to avoid several roads leading to Mocha.

Risks of Geopolitical Crisis Spillover

Some analysts say that after the outbreak of a new round of conflict between Israel and Palestine in October 2023, the Houthis launched maritime strikes against Israel, demonstrating their ability to create risks in the Red Sea using drones and missiles. Now, with the Houthis capturing the key Red Sea stronghold of Mocha and continuing to advance towards the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and surrounding islands, the shipping pattern in the Red Sea faces new changes.

Barra Hibban, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in the UK, believes that the mountainous terrain around Taiz province allows the Houthis to gain strategic high ground overlooking the western coast of Yemen. After taking Mocha, the Houthis' ability to control and even blockade the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait has increased.

Andreas Krieg, a security expert at King's College London, believes that once the Houthis "control the coastal areas of the Red Sea, their maritime deterrent capability will inevitably strengthen."

After the outbreak of the current Israel-Palestine conflict, the Houthis frequently attacked Israeli and American vessels passing through the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestine, leading many international shipping companies to abandon Red Sea routes through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Data from the UK-based Lloyd's List Maritime Intelligence shows that at that time, shipping volume through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait dropped by about 60%. This year, due to the impact of the Iran conflict, shipping volume has rebounded somewhat, as Saudi Arabia has been transporting more crude oil from eastern oil fields to the western port of Yanbu and exporting it through the Red Sea.

Many are concerned that the ongoing clashes between the Yemeni government forces and the Houthis could lead Yemen back into large-scale conflict. If the Yemeni civil war fully restarts, the Yemeni people will suffer greatly, and global energy supplies may also be impacted.

"This rekindled war should serve as a wake-up call for everyone," warned Hans Grundberg, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen, at an emergency meeting of the Security Council on the 10th. "This effectively marks the end of more than four years of relative calm in Yemen following the UN-mediated ceasefire," and if the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences will not be limited to within Yemen.

In 2014, the Houthis seized Sana'a, forcing the Yemeni government to relocate to the southern port city of Aden. In 2015, a Saudi-led coalition intervened in the Yemeni conflict to support the Yemeni government in combating the Houthis. In April 2022, the Houthis and the Yemeni government reached a ceasefire agreement under UN mediation. Since then, the ceasefire has largely been maintained, resulting in a "North-South division" in Yemen, with the Houthis controlling most of the north and the Yemeni government controlling the south and east. (Yang Shuyi)