Zero Time Difference | The US and Iran Hit the Pause Button, What Next?

On the morning of April 8, Beijing time, as the deadline for the U.S. ultimatum to Iran approached, both the U.S. and Iran simultaneously eased their stances and agreed to a temporary ceasefire for the next two weeks.

The U.S. side specifically emphasized: "This will be a mutual ceasefire!" Iran also stated that it would ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz during the next two weeks. Meanwhile, Pakistan announced it would invite delegations from both the U.S. and Iran to further negotiations in Islamabad on the 10th, aiming to reach a final agreement to resolve all disputes.

Upon the announcement of the ceasefire, the international community finally breathed a sigh of relief. After all, just less than 12 hours earlier, the U.S. had declared: "Tonight, all civilization will perish."

In recent days, global nerves have been highly tense, and this is not the first time the U.S. has set a "countdown" for Iran. From the 48-hour ultimatum issued by the U.S. to Iran on March 21, demanding it open the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its power plants and other infrastructure, to extending the deadline by 5 days on the 23rd, then another 10 days on the 26th, and finally setting a new deadline of "8 PM Eastern Time on April 7," the U.S. has initiated one round of extreme pressure after another.

Inside the United Nations headquarters, the Secretary-General expressed deep concern, stating that "no military target can justify large-scale destruction of community infrastructure or deliberately inflicting suffering on civilians"; in the Gulf region, countries like Qatar announced preparations for "any sudden situation"; on Capitol Hill, some politicians worried that this war "would drag the U.S. into a third world war," bluntly stating that "the annihilation of a civilization is a war crime"… Just hours before the ceasefire announcement, Brent crude oil prices surged to historic highs, and the worries and anxieties in the international market were evident.

So, is the temporary ceasefire after 40 days of conflict really due to the effectiveness of extreme pressure?

The ceasefire is in place, but it is not entirely what the U.S. wanted. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council issued a statement early on the 8th. This statement revealed the main content of 10 ceasefire terms submitted to the U.S. through Pakistan, and the U.S. also indicated acceptance of these principles as the basis for negotiations. A comparison shows that these 10 principles are quite different from the 15-point plan previously proposed by the U.S.

The negotiation principles proposed by Iran include several "hard demands": "U.S. combat troops must withdraw from all bases and deployment points in the region," "full compensation for the damages suffered by Iran based on estimates," and "unfreezing all of Iran's frozen overseas assets and properties." Analysts point out that these demands from Iran are hard to reconcile with the outcomes the U.S. hoped to achieve through extreme pressure.

The ceasefire is what the world hopes for, but it is just the first step. How the U.S., Israel, and Iran act in the next two weeks will be the real test.

First, the ceasefire must be uncompromising. To smoothly advance subsequent negotiations, it is crucial to ensure that all parties involved in the conflict refrain from using or threatening to use force. Reports indicate that even after the announcement of the ceasefire, air defense alarms still sounded in the Middle East. Any unilateral military action by either side would undoubtedly undermine the hard-won easing of tensions.

Second, the U.S. and Iran need to regain the feeling of negotiation. The upcoming negotiations in Islamabad will test the sincerity and courage of both the U.S. and Iran. Iran has experienced "backstabbing" during the negotiation process multiple times and has expressed "complete distrust" of the U.S.; negotiations do not mean the end of hostilities. To truly restore peace, both sides need to deepen a consensus: war is absolutely not a solution.

Lastly, it must be said that the "new grudges and old hatreds" between the U.S. and Iran cannot be resolved in two or three days, and the next two weeks are unlikely to be smooth sailing. However, one thing is clear: force cannot bring peace; a political solution is the right path.