Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
Russia Goes to Geneva with an Exhausted Army — What Lies Behind the Kremlin's Negotiating Position
Russia is advancing with a depleted 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Zybyne, Kharkiv Oblast, as of February 2026. The Kremlin announced that Vladimir Medinsky will lead negotiations in Geneva starting February 17, aiming for terms that suggest the capitulation of Ukraine. Despite capturing territory, the Russian army operates at only 40% personnel strength, indicating systemic exhaustion. Concurrently, Ukraine has reported extensive damage to its energy infrastructure.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 17 2026Loading...Russian losses in the war exceeded 1.25 million — the rate of decline is accelerating contrary to forecasts
Russian Armed Forces have suffered over 1.25 million personnel losses in the conflict as of February 15, 2026, with daily losses reaching 1,250. The rate of casualties is increasing, surpassing previous peaks, and the military is struggling to replenish its ranks effectively. Equipment losses are also significant, including over 11,672 tanks and 24,037 armored vehicles, indicating a severe degradation of military capability.
Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 15 2026Loading...219 Drones and 24 Missiles in One Night — Russia's Massive Attacks on Ukraine's Energy as a System of Depleting Air Defense
On February 12, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive combined strike involving 219 drones and 24 ballistic missiles against energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Odessa, and Dnipro. This operation aimed to exhaust Ukrainian air defense capabilities while targeting civilian heating during extreme cold. The cost-effectiveness of the Russian strategy highlights a significant disparity in military expenditure between the two sides.
Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 13 2026Loading...Rotating Cables Against Drones — Desperate Improvisation or the Birth of a New Tactic for Russian Air Defense
The Russian Army is testing an experimental drone defense system using rotating cables in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as of February 2026. This system, developed by the 70th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment, aims to address the threat posed by FPV drones, which existing air defense systems have struggled to counter. The prototype was showcased on Russian state television, highlighting a shift in military tactics.
Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 12 2026Loading...Ukrainian FPV Interceptors Against "Lightning" Drones — The Formation of a New Layer of Air Opposition
Ukrainian FPV interceptors destroyed over 300 Russian 'Molniya' drones in February 2026, indicating a significant shift in aerial warfare dynamics. The 'Molniya' drones, which operate on pre-programmed routes, are being actively countered by specialized units like the Ukrainian Security Service's 'Alpha'. Russia's Ministry of Defense is attempting to centralize drone operations to enhance effectiveness, but this may create vulnerabilities.
Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 11 2026Loading...UMPB-5: A New Word in Airstrike Tactics or the Evolution of Inevitability
Russian Aerospace Forces conducted continuous airstrikes over Ukraine in January 2026, dropping 5,717 guided bombs, including the newly developed UMPB-5. This weapon allows strikes from distances of 50-60 km, keeping aircraft safe from Ukrainian air defense systems. A recent strike on Kharkiv resulted in 33 civilian injuries, highlighting the impact of this new tactical approach.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 10 2026Loading...Strikes on NPP Infrastructure: Escalation of Winter Campaign and Limits of Effectiveness
Russian forces conducted airstrikes on nuclear power plant infrastructure in Ukraine on February 6-7, 2026, deploying 408 drones and 39 missiles. Ukrainian air defense successfully intercepted 406 of these, but 34 managed to strike 19 locations, severely impacting energy generation. This operation represents a strategic shift in targeting high-voltage substations, aiming to disrupt the energy supply and increase pressure on Ukraine amid ongoing negotiations.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 10 2026Loading...Rocket R-60 on Shahed Drones — Evolution of Tactics or a Sign of Desperation
On February 8, 2026, a Ukrainian STING interceptor shot down a modified Shahed-2 drone equipped with an R-60 missile. This incident marks the third confirmed use of R-60 missiles on drones, indicating a tactical shift by Russian forces. The missiles, originally designed for air-to-air combat, are now being adapted for drone warfare, reflecting the challenges faced by Russian forces in achieving operational effectiveness against Ukrainian air defenses.
Dmitri VolkovMon Feb 09 2026Loading...Blocking Starlink and the Collapse of Russian Military Communications: Systemic Dependence on Stolen Technologies
On February 5, 2026, SpaceX and Ukrainian authorities blocked Russian access to Starlink terminals in Ukraine, causing severe communication issues for Russian troops. Military bloggers reported that without Starlink, operators lost real-time video transmission capabilities, leading to decreased artillery accuracy. This incident highlights the Russian military's reliance on foreign technology and the systemic vulnerabilities in their communication infrastructure.
Dmitri VolkovMon Feb 09 2026Loading...Strikes on Ukraine's Energy Infrastructure: Returning to the 2022 Strategy and Limits of Effectiveness
On February 7, 2026, Russian Armed Forces launched a large-scale strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, deploying 450 drones and over 70 missiles targeting thermal power plants and key substations. This operation signifies a return to a strategy of attrition, aiming to disrupt Ukraine's energy supply. However, Ukraine's energy system has adapted, mitigating the long-term effects of these attacks.
Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 08 2026Loading...
