Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
M1 Abrams vs Leopard 2 vs T-90 vs Type 99: Modern Main Battle Tank Comparison
The ongoing war in Ukraine has highlighted the performance of various main battle tanks, including the M1 Abrams, Leopard 2, T-90, and Type 99. The M1 Abrams is recognized for its advanced armor and active protection systems, while the Leopard 2A7V has faced significant losses due to vulnerabilities. The T-90M has demonstrated improved survivability, and the Type 99A's capabilities remain largely untested in combat. This analysis underscores the importance of active protection systems in modern armored warfare.
Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 18 2026Loading...
396 Drones on the Night Before Geneva — Russian Military Doctrine of Pressure in Negotiations
Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine with 396 drones and 29 missiles on February 16-17, 2026, as negotiations in Geneva continued. Ukrainian air defense successfully intercepted 367 drones and 25 missiles. The military actions are part of a strategy to exert pressure during diplomatic talks, highlighting the ongoing conflict and the complexities of the negotiations.
Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 18 2026Loading...
201 square kilometers in five days — the loss of Starlink exposed the flaws in the Russian military command system
Ukrainian forces reclaimed 201 square kilometers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from February 12-16, 2026, following the disruption of Russian communications due to the loss of Starlink terminals. This operational failure led to significant challenges in command and control for Russian troops, halting their assault actions in several sectors. The transition to less effective geostationary satellites further complicates Russian military operations.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 17 2026Loading...Russia Goes to Geneva with an Exhausted Army — What Lies Behind the Kremlin's Negotiating Position
Russia is advancing with a depleted 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Zybyne, Kharkiv Oblast, as of February 2026. The Kremlin announced that Vladimir Medinsky will lead negotiations in Geneva starting February 17, aiming for terms that suggest the capitulation of Ukraine. Despite capturing territory, the Russian army operates at only 40% personnel strength, indicating systemic exhaustion. Concurrently, Ukraine has reported extensive damage to its energy infrastructure.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 17 2026Loading...Russian losses in the war exceeded 1.25 million — the rate of decline is accelerating contrary to forecasts
Russian Armed Forces have suffered over 1.25 million personnel losses in the conflict as of February 15, 2026, with daily losses reaching 1,250. The rate of casualties is increasing, surpassing previous peaks, and the military is struggling to replenish its ranks effectively. Equipment losses are also significant, including over 11,672 tanks and 24,037 armored vehicles, indicating a severe degradation of military capability.
Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 15 2026Loading...European Machines at Factory No. 9 — How Russia Overcomes the Main Bottleneck of Its Defense Industry
Russia is modernizing Factory No. 9 in Yekaterinburg by acquiring 22 industrial machines from Europe and Taiwan to enhance its artillery production capabilities. This effort aims to increase the output of artillery barrels and components for the Coalition system, addressing a critical shortfall in military production. The reliance on foreign technology underscores vulnerabilities in Russia's defense industry amid ongoing sanctions.
Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 14 2026Loading...219 Drones and 24 Missiles in One Night — Russia's Massive Attacks on Ukraine's Energy as a System of Depleting Air Defense
On February 12, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive combined strike involving 219 drones and 24 ballistic missiles against energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Odessa, and Dnipro. This operation aimed to exhaust Ukrainian air defense capabilities while targeting civilian heating during extreme cold. The cost-effectiveness of the Russian strategy highlights a significant disparity in military expenditure between the two sides.
Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 13 2026Loading...Where Will Russia Find People for War in 2026 — Budget Crisis and Shift to Coercion
By 2026, the Russian Army will transition to coercive recruitment methods due to budget constraints, requiring 25,000 to 40,000 new contract soldiers monthly. Regions such as Buryatia and Tatarstan will likely face increased recruitment pressures, while Moscow and Saint Petersburg remain relatively insulated. The reliance on financial incentives has diminished, leading to a potential second wave of mobilization as military losses continue to rise.
Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 13 2026Loading...Rotating Cables Against Drones — Desperate Improvisation or the Birth of a New Tactic for Russian Air Defense
The Russian Army is testing an experimental drone defense system using rotating cables in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as of February 2026. This system, developed by the 70th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment, aims to address the threat posed by FPV drones, which existing air defense systems have struggled to counter. The prototype was showcased on Russian state television, highlighting a shift in military tactics.
Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 12 2026Loading...The "Nut" Base near Krichiev — Strategic Deterrence or an Expensive Gesture with Four Missiles
Construction of infrastructure for the 'Oreshnik' missile system was observed at the Krichiv-6 airfield in Belarus on February 9, 2026. The Russian Armed Forces are preparing for the deployment of 4-6 units, despite currently having only 3-4 systems available. This development indicates a strategic move to enhance military presence in Belarus and signal political integration with the country.
Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 12 2026Loading...Ukrainian FPV Interceptors Against "Lightning" Drones — The Formation of a New Layer of Air Opposition
Ukrainian FPV interceptors destroyed over 300 Russian 'Molniya' drones in February 2026, indicating a significant shift in aerial warfare dynamics. The 'Molniya' drones, which operate on pre-programmed routes, are being actively countered by specialized units like the Ukrainian Security Service's 'Alpha'. Russia's Ministry of Defense is attempting to centralize drone operations to enhance effectiveness, but this may create vulnerabilities.
Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 11 2026Loading...UMPB-5: A New Word in Airstrike Tactics or the Evolution of Inevitability
Russian Aerospace Forces conducted continuous airstrikes over Ukraine in January 2026, dropping 5,717 guided bombs, including the newly developed UMPB-5. This weapon allows strikes from distances of 50-60 km, keeping aircraft safe from Ukrainian air defense systems. A recent strike on Kharkiv resulted in 33 civilian injuries, highlighting the impact of this new tactical approach.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 10 2026Loading...Strikes on NPP Infrastructure: Escalation of Winter Campaign and Limits of Effectiveness
Russian forces conducted airstrikes on nuclear power plant infrastructure in Ukraine on February 6-7, 2026, deploying 408 drones and 39 missiles. Ukrainian air defense successfully intercepted 406 of these, but 34 managed to strike 19 locations, severely impacting energy generation. This operation represents a strategic shift in targeting high-voltage substations, aiming to disrupt the energy supply and increase pressure on Ukraine amid ongoing negotiations.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 10 2026Loading...Rocket R-60 on Shahed Drones — Evolution of Tactics or a Sign of Desperation
On February 8, 2026, a Ukrainian STING interceptor shot down a modified Shahed-2 drone equipped with an R-60 missile. This incident marks the third confirmed use of R-60 missiles on drones, indicating a tactical shift by Russian forces. The missiles, originally designed for air-to-air combat, are now being adapted for drone warfare, reflecting the challenges faced by Russian forces in achieving operational effectiveness against Ukrainian air defenses.
Dmitri VolkovMon Feb 09 2026Loading...Blocking Starlink and the Collapse of Russian Military Communications: Systemic Dependence on Stolen Technologies
On February 5, 2026, SpaceX and Ukrainian authorities blocked Russian access to Starlink terminals in Ukraine, causing severe communication issues for Russian troops. Military bloggers reported that without Starlink, operators lost real-time video transmission capabilities, leading to decreased artillery accuracy. This incident highlights the Russian military's reliance on foreign technology and the systemic vulnerabilities in their communication infrastructure.
Dmitri VolkovMon Feb 09 2026Loading...Trump Wants Ukraine Peace by June—Before Americans Vote in November
The U.S. administration has set a June deadline for Ukraine and Russia to negotiate a peace deal, with talks scheduled in Miami. President Zelenskyy expressed skepticism about the feasibility of the proposed terms, particularly regarding the Donbas region. The negotiations are seen as influenced by U.S. domestic politics ahead of the midterm elections, sidelining European leaders in the process.
Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 08 2026Loading...Strikes on Ukraine's Energy Infrastructure: Returning to the 2022 Strategy and Limits of Effectiveness
On February 7, 2026, Russian Armed Forces launched a large-scale strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, deploying 450 drones and over 70 missiles targeting thermal power plants and key substations. This operation signifies a return to a strategy of attrition, aiming to disrupt Ukraine's energy supply. However, Ukraine's energy system has adapted, mitigating the long-term effects of these attacks.
Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 08 2026Loading...Assassination Attempt on Lieutenant General Alexeev: Symptoms of the Systemic Crisis in Russian Special Services
Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeev survived an assassination attempt outside his home in Moscow on February 6. The Russian Investigative Committee classified the incident as an attempted murder, while Foreign Minister Lavrov described it as a terrorist act by Ukraine. Two suspects were detained in Dubai, raising questions about the security of Russian intelligence services and potential internal conflicts within the GRU and FSB.
Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 08 2026Loading...Unmanned Systems Forces as the Sixth Branch of the Military: Organizational Revolution or Bureaucratic Trap
The Russian Armed Forces plan to establish a new branch, the Unmanned Systems Troops (ВБС), comprising 87,000 personnel by February 2026. This formation will include one brigade, four regiments, and numerous battalions and companies, focusing on drone operations. However, concerns arise regarding the bureaucratic structure and the ability to recruit qualified personnel amidst existing shortages in the defense industry.
Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 07 2026Loading...The Belarusian Defense Complex in the Orbit of Russian Interests: Evolution of Dependency
In 2025, Belarus adopted 16 new military products, indicating a shift towards deeper integration with the Russian defense industry. The Belarusian defense sector is increasingly reliant on foreign components, particularly from North Korea and China, raising concerns about its technological independence. The export of military products to 65 countries suggests Belarus is acting as an intermediary for Russian arms, further complicating its position amid sanctions.
Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 07 2026Loading...
