Analysis & Reports

AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources

T-72B3A with Arena-M failed its first battle near Mayak in 2026

T-72B3A with Arena-M failed its first battle near Mayak in 2026

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsOperational

A Ukrainian FPV drone struck a Russian T-72B3A tank equipped with the Arena-M active protection system near Mayak on July 23-24, 2026. The system failed to prevent the strike, raising concerns about its effectiveness against modern drone threats. This incident occurred within a column of ten Russian tanks, indicating potential vulnerabilities in Russian armored units.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jul 24 2026
P1-SUN JetKiller to Launch in Series in August 2026 — Ukraine Changes Its Economy of Fighting "Shaheds"

P1-SUN JetKiller to Launch in Series in August 2026 — Ukraine Changes Its Economy of Fighting "Shaheds"

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukraine plans to produce the P1-SUN JetKiller interceptor starting in August 2026 to counter Iranian Shahed drones and their Russian variants. The interceptor is designed for a range of 30 kilometers and will utilize AI for guidance. Skyfall aims to manufacture up to 50,000 units per month, enhancing Ukraine's air defense capabilities against mass drone attacks. Additionally, Ukraine is targeting Russian defense industries to disrupt drone production.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jul 24 2026
13 shadow fleet ships in two days reveal a new vulnerability for Russia in the Black Sea

13 shadow fleet ships in two days reveal a new vulnerability for Russia in the Black Sea

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces targeted and reported damage to 13 Russian vessels in the Black and Azov Seas on July 21-22, 2026. The operation included 10 cargo ships, 2 tugboats, and 1 tanker, indicating a strategic shift in Ukraine's naval engagement. This campaign aims to disrupt Russian maritime logistics, highlighting vulnerabilities in their supply chain.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Jul 22 2026
216 "Shaheds" and decoys show the new economy of Russian strikes on Ukraine in 2026

216 "Shaheds" and decoys show the new economy of Russian strikes on Ukraine in 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentLogisticsHybrid

Russia launched a nighttime strike involving 216 drones and 4 missiles, targeting civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and Odesa on July 21-22, 2026. Ukrainian forces reported intercepting 204 drones and 3 missiles, but damage occurred to residential buildings and gas pipelines. This operation illustrates a shift in Russian tactics, emphasizing mass drone deployment to exert pressure on Ukrainian air defenses.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Jul 22 2026

The Black Sea Strike Cycle Is Moving From Ports to Ships

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

On July 20, 2023, Ukrainian forces launched around 400 drones toward Moscow, while Russian forces struck a corn ship near Odesa, resulting in ten fatalities. This incident signifies a shift in military operations from targeting port infrastructure to attacking commercial vessels, raising concerns about maritime security. The ongoing conflict has escalated, with both sides engaging in long-range strikes affecting civilian and military targets.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jul 20 2026
107 ballistic missiles in 19 days show the limits of Russia's bet on "Zircon"

107 ballistic missiles in 19 days show the limits of Russia's bet on "Zircon"

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsOperational

Russia launched 107 ballistic missiles and 20 3M22 Zircon missiles in July 2026, targeting Ukrainian air defense capabilities across Kharkiv, Odessa, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. This marks a significant increase in missile usage, indicating a strategic shift in military operations. Concurrently, Ukraine has targeted Russian oil infrastructure to disrupt missile supply lines and reduce operational costs for Russia's missile campaign.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jul 20 2026
172 ships in 13 days force Russia to withdraw drone units from the front.

172 ships in 13 days force Russia to withdraw drone units from the front.

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces struck 172 Russian maritime vessels over 13 days, prompting the withdrawal of up to 200 drone units from the front lines to protect logistics. This operation targeted key maritime assets in the Black and Azov Seas, impacting Russian supply chains. Concurrently, Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure in occupied territories further strained Russian military logistics.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Jul 19 2026
8 thousand UAV operators do not return the maneuver of the Russian army in Ukraine

8 thousand UAV operators do not return the maneuver of the Russian army in Ukraine

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

The Russian Army has trained 8,000 UAV operators in the first half of 2026, reflecting a shift in military strategy towards small mobile groups and UAV operations in Ukraine. The deployment of UAVs has more than doubled compared to 2025, indicating a focus on logistics and positional warfare rather than traditional mechanized maneuvers. Economic challenges are also affecting military capabilities and operational effectiveness.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jul 18 2026
Drones "Lightning" and "Lancet" elevate Russian war logistics to refueling levels of 2026

Drones "Lightning" and "Lancet" elevate Russian war logistics to refueling levels of 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

The Russian army is intensifying drone strikes on fuel stations, buses, and trucks in Ukraine as part of a logistics campaign. This operation, led by the elite Rubicon drone unit, aims to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines by targeting civilian logistics. The drones involved include Lightning and Lancet models, which are capable of real-time targeting. This shift in tactics is a response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure, increasing the operational costs for Ukrainian forces.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jul 17 2026
PAC-3 and Fedorov's resignation in 2026 change the price of Russian Iskanders for Ukraine

PAC-3 and Fedorov's resignation in 2026 change the price of Russian Iskanders for Ukraine

Political-MilitaryWeapons & EquipmentStrategic

Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov was dismissed amid discussions of military procurement, including PAC-3 missiles, on July 16, 2023. He proposed replacing military leaders to adapt to changing war dynamics. This internal conflict reflects a shift in Ukraine's military strategy, as it seeks to address the challenges posed by Russian ballistic missile tactics. The procurement process is evolving with European funding, indicating a more structured approach to defense.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jul 16 2026
20 ships overnight change the Russian war against Odessa ports

20 ships overnight change the Russian war against Odessa ports

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted drone operations on July 15, 2023, targeting 20 vessels in the Black Sea, including oil tankers and a tugboat. This operation is part of a larger campaign against Russian maritime logistics, which has seen intensified strikes on Odessa and surrounding areas. The Ukrainian military aims to disrupt Russian shipping and oil transport, reflecting a shift in the maritime conflict dynamics.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jul 16 2026
136 ships in ten days — Ukrainian sea drones are breaking Russian logistics

136 ships in ten days — Ukrainian sea drones are breaking Russian logistics

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian naval drones targeted 136 Russian vessels between July 6 and 15, 2026, disrupting logistics in the Azov and Black Seas. This operation included attacks on oil tankers and gas carriers, indicating a shift in Ukrainian tactics to undermine Russian supply lines. In response, Russia is contemplating changes to its cargo routes due to the increased frequency of these attacks.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Jul 15 2026
195,000 contract soldiers do not fill the gap in the Russian army in the summer of 2026

195,000 contract soldiers do not fill the gap in the Russian army in the summer of 2026

Political-MilitaryCasualties & LossesStrategic

The Russian Army has recruited about 195,000 contract soldiers by July 2026, falling short of its target of 409,000. Recruitment rates have decreased, leading to concerns over personnel quality and increasing combat losses, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, where Russian forces face significant casualties. The military's reliance on less qualified recruits and foreign labor indicates a shift towards coercive recruitment methods.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Jul 15 2026
Freyja vs. Iskanders in 2026 Turns Kyiv into a Testing Ground for European Missile Defense

Freyja vs. Iskanders in 2026 Turns Kyiv into a Testing Ground for European Missile Defense

Political-MilitaryWeapons & EquipmentStrategic

In July 2026, Ukraine and nine European nations announced the formation of the Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition in Paris, aiming to enhance missile defense capabilities against Russian threats. Following this announcement, Russia launched 134 long-range drones and three guided missiles targeting Ukraine. The coalition seeks to leverage Ukraine's combat experience to develop a more cost-effective missile defense system, addressing the challenges posed by Russian ballistic missile attacks.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jul 14 2026
14 ships overnight at the Kerch Strait show a new limit of Russian military logistics 2026

14 ships overnight at the Kerch Strait show a new limit of Russian military logistics 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian forces targeted 14 vessels in the Kerch Strait overnight, including 10 tankers and 4 ferries, disrupting Russian military logistics. This operation reflects a strategic effort to undermine the supply routes critical for Russian operations in the region. The attacks are part of a broader campaign against the Russian shadow fleet, which is essential for transporting oil and fuel.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jul 13 2026

178 Drones and a Strike on Syzran Show the New Cost of Russian Logistics

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces attacked the Syzran oil refinery and maritime logistics elements on July 11-12, 2026, while Russian air defense intercepted 178 Ukrainian drones. Reports indicate that ten Russian tankers and four ferries were also struck in the Azov Sea, highlighting a significant impact on Russian logistical capabilities. This marks a strategic shift in Ukrainian operations aimed at disrupting fuel and transport systems supporting Russian military efforts.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Jul 12 2026

76 Ships in the Sea of Azov Change Russian Military Logistics of 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian forces struck 76 vessels, including tankers and the Syzran oil refinery, in the Sea of Azov between July 6-11, 2026. This has significantly impacted Russian military logistics, as evidenced by a sharp decline in active AIS signals and rising fuel prices in Russia. The strikes indicate a shift in operational behavior among Russian transporters, affecting supply routes and military operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Jul 12 2026
Iskanders and 121 Drones Over Kyiv Show the Limits of Russian Exhaustion Strategy

Iskanders and 121 Drones Over Kyiv Show the Limits of Russian Exhaustion Strategy

Military OperationsCasualties & LossesWeapons & EquipmentHybrid

Russian forces launched a combined attack on Kyiv on July 11, firing 12 ballistic missiles and 121 drones. Ukrainian air defense managed to intercept 111 drones and 2 guided missiles but could not stop the ballistic missiles. The assault resulted in 12 injuries in Kyiv and at least 10 fatalities across Ukraine, highlighting the ongoing intensity of the conflict and the challenges faced by Ukrainian defenses.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jul 11 2026
PAC-3 Patriot and Four Areas Reveal the Deadlock of Russian Strategy 2026

PAC-3 Patriot and Four Areas Reveal the Deadlock of Russian Strategy 2026

Military OperationsCasualties & LossesPolitical-MilitaryHybrid

Russia is struggling to achieve its military objectives in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, with Ukrainian defenses significantly slowing Russian advances. The Ukrainian military reported 32,000 Russian casualties per month, while Ukraine has successfully targeted numerous Russian positions. Diplomatic efforts continue, but Russia's demands remain high despite operational challenges.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jul 10 2026

55 Thousand Soldiers a Month for Donbas Show the Limits of the Russian War 2026

Force MovementPolitical-MilitaryOperational

The Russian Army requires 55,000-60,000 soldiers per month to sustain its offensive operations in Donbas, as reported by an anonymous general. This figure reflects the need to compensate for ongoing losses while aiming for territorial gains by the end of 2026. The Kremlin's mobilization strategy has evolved, focusing on financial incentives rather than public mobilization, indicating a significant strain on military resources and personnel quality.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jul 10 2026