Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
Exit through Upper Lars — 113 thousand in a week as a harbinger of a new mobilization
Over 113,000 Russian citizens crossed into Georgia via Upper Lars in August 2023, signaling potential preparations for mobilization. The Russian government is reportedly gathering personal data on reservists and has been denying any plans for mass mobilization. However, the failure of voluntary recruitment efforts has led to speculation about a future conscription announcement, particularly after the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Dmitri VolkovSat Aug 29 2026Loading...
"Not Planned, But We'll See" — Nebenzya and the Ritual of Denying Mobilization Before the State Duma Elections
Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's permanent representative to the UN, stated on August 20, 2026, that mass mobilization is not currently planned but hinted at potential future actions. This statement comes ahead of the Russian parliamentary elections scheduled for September 18-20, 2026, where mobilization could be announced post-election. Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that Russia might mobilize several hundred thousand troops by the end of the year, suggesting a strategic approach to manage public perception and political stability during the election period.
Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 21 2026Loading...
Gerasimov paints 85 percent of Liman and reveals the crisis of accountability of the Russian army in Ukraine
Russian General Valery Gerasimov claimed 85% control of Lyman on May 16, 2026, but this is disputed by the Institute for the Study of War, which estimates actual control at only 0.06%. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Shevchenkove, yet the situation in Kupiansk remains unclear. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported significant drone interceptions and personnel losses, raising concerns about the accuracy of their operational reports.
Dmitri VolkovSun May 17 2026Loading...
The Diplomacy of Delay: How Russia's Negotiating Strategy Extends the Ukraine War While NATO Rearms
Russian forces conducted mechanized assaults near Lyman in March 2026, utilizing over 20 armored vehicles. Ukraine's air defense effectiveness has declined due to ammunition shortages, while NATO members collectively increased defense spending to over $1.4 trillion. Ongoing negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow have stalled, with no progress made on key issues. Poland has notably ramped up its military rearmament efforts in response to regional threats.
Dmitri VolkovSun Mar 29 2026Loading...Oil Windfall Reshapes Russia's War Economy: Sanctions Relief and Iran Crisis Extended Moscow's Timeline
The Russian Army plans to expand its Unmanned Systems Forces to 101,000 personnel by April 1, 2026, amid a significant increase in oil revenue due to temporary US sanctions relief. Russian forces conducted reinforced assaults near Shandryholove and targeted Ukrainian logistics and artillery. Ukrainian forces successfully disrupted Russian operations through targeted strikes. Additionally, Russia launched missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure on March 12-13, 2026.
Dmitri VolkovSun Mar 22 2026Loading...
B-52 Stratofortress vs Tu-95 Bear vs B-2 Spirit: Cold War Giants and Stealth Revolution
The B-52H Stratofortress, Tu-95MS Bear, and B-2 Spirit are actively utilized in military operations as of 2026, with the B-52H serving as a versatile platform for standoff strikes. The Tu-95MS has been employed in Russia's strategic air campaign against Ukraine, launching Kh-101 missiles from a distance. The B-2 Spirit remains the only aircraft capable of penetrating advanced air defenses, underscoring its critical role in nuclear deterrence.
Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 18 2026Loading...Trump Wants Ukraine Peace by June—Before Americans Vote in November
The U.S. administration has set a June deadline for Ukraine and Russia to negotiate a peace deal, with talks scheduled in Miami. President Zelenskyy expressed skepticism about the feasibility of the proposed terms, particularly regarding the Donbas region. The negotiations are seen as influenced by U.S. domestic politics ahead of the midterm elections, sidelining European leaders in the process.
Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 08 2026Loading...
