Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
Russian "Shaheds" Use Belarusian LTE Networks — A New Depth of Military Integration in 2026
Russian drones are utilizing Belarusian LTE networks for command and control during attacks on Ukraine, as reported by Ukrainian officials on September 14, 2026. This development allows for more complex operations and enhances the effectiveness of the Shahed drones. The attacks have targeted the Rivne, Volyn, and Lviv regions, indicating a strategic use of Belarusian infrastructure to support Russian military actions.
Dmitri VolkovWed Sep 16 2026Loading...
"Not Planned, But We'll See" — Nebenzya and the Ritual of Denying Mobilization Before the State Duma Elections
Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's permanent representative to the UN, stated on August 20, 2026, that mass mobilization is not currently planned but hinted at potential future actions. This statement comes ahead of the Russian parliamentary elections scheduled for September 18-20, 2026, where mobilization could be announced post-election. Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that Russia might mobilize several hundred thousand troops by the end of the year, suggesting a strategic approach to manage public perception and political stability during the election period.
Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 21 2026Loading...
Hundreds of Thousands After September 20 — What "Internal Documents" Show About Mobilization
Internal Russian documents indicate a planned mobilization of hundreds of thousands of troops after the parliamentary elections on September 20, 2026. Current recruitment efforts are insufficient to cover significant losses, with estimates suggesting over 1.2 million casualties. The Kremlin's strategy appears to involve mobilization as a political tool to demonstrate support for the ongoing conflict.
Dmitri VolkovThu Aug 13 2026Loading...
30,000 North Korean Soldiers for Russia Show the Personnel Limit of War 2026
North Korea is preparing to send 30,000 soldiers to Russia, as reported by Ukrainian intelligence in July 2026. This move indicates a significant shift in Russia's military strategy, reflecting challenges in domestic recruitment and the need for foreign troops. The North Korean contingent is expected to support various military operations in the region, particularly in Voronezh Oblast.
Dmitri VolkovSun Jul 26 2026Loading...
Translators for "Geraniums" in Belarus fell silent on June 22 — how the Russian strike scheme is changing
Relay stations in Belarus used for coordinating Russian drone strikes stopped functioning on June 22, 2026, impacting the operational capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. Ukrainian Air Force reported intercepting 83 out of 90 Russian drones on June 25, indicating ongoing drone operations despite the communication disruption. This situation may alter the routes and tactics of Russian drone attacks, as Belarusian infrastructure played a crucial role in their operations.
Dmitri VolkovThu Jun 25 2026Loading...The Ceasefire Paradox: How Moscow's Victory Day Truce Masked an Escalating Cross-Border Drone War
Russian forces launched 78 airstrikes and 9,317 kamikaze drones against Ukrainian positions on May 7, 2026. Ukrainian drones struck the Mosfilm Tower in Moscow, while two drones crashed in Latvia, damaging an oil facility. Total Russian military losses reached approximately 1,342,030 personnel. Three ceasefire proposals were made within a week, but combat operations continued unabated.
Dmitri VolkovMon May 11 2026Loading...
The Transatlantic Fracture Deepens: US Troop Withdrawals, European Rearmament, and the Reshaping of Continental Security
In May 2026, the U.S. announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany, marking a significant reduction in its military presence in Europe. This decision, framed as a response to political remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has raised concerns among NATO planners about the implications for European security. Concurrently, European nations are increasing their defense spending and capabilities, while Ukraine continues to innovate in its military operations against Russia.
Dmitri VolkovSat May 02 2026Loading...The Transatlantic Fracture Deepens: US Troop Withdrawals, European Rearmament, and the Reshaping of Continental Security
In May 2026, the U.S. announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany, marking a significant reduction in its military presence in Europe. This decision, framed as a response to political remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has raised concerns among NATO planners. Concurrently, European nations are increasing their defense spending, with Poland and Romania maintaining U.S. military support against Russian aggression. The evolving security landscape is further complicated by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military assets.
Dmitri VolkovSat May 02 2026Loading...Russia's Strategic Shift: VDV Redeployment and the Evolution of Military Doctrine in Eastern Europe
Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) are redeploying elite units to Donetsk Oblast as of April 2026, reflecting a shift in military strategy due to significant personnel losses. The VDV's role has evolved from a strategic reserve to frontline infantry, while military cooperation with Belarus has intensified, including joint exercises and potential permanent basing. Ukrainian forces have regained territory, indicating improved operational capabilities, while Russia plans to target critical infrastructure in Ukraine.
Dmitri VolkovTue Apr 07 2026Loading...
Russia's Diplomatic Trap: How Three Rounds of Peace Talks Are Fueling a Spring Offensive
Russian forces conducted intensified mechanized assaults across multiple sectors in March 2026, including company-sized and platoon-sized operations in areas like Novopavlivka and Pokrovsk. Concurrently, diplomatic negotiations have stalled, allowing Russia to maintain operational freedom on the battlefield. Ukrainian forces engaged in counterattacks in contested regions, while NATO adjusted its posture in response to the ongoing conflict.
Dmitri VolkovMon Mar 30 2026Loading...Russia's Spring Offensive Stalls as Ukrainian Counterattacks Reshape the Battlefield
Russian forces' spring-summer offensive against Ukraine stalled in March 2026, with Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacking and liberating Berezove. Ukrainian long-range strikes have disrupted Russian oil exports significantly. Public criticism from Russian military commentators highlights systemic issues within the Russian military. Additionally, Russia plans to train over 70,000 drone operators to address operational challenges.
Dmitri VolkovSat Mar 28 2026Loading...Russia's Armored Reconstitution and AI Command Architecture: Preparing for Extended Confrontation
Russia is modernizing its armored forces and command architecture, focusing on AI and unmanned systems, while refurbishing existing tanks. The Russian Armed Forces plan to produce over 2,000 advanced main battle tanks by 2036, with significant increases in T-90 production. Concurrently, Russia is enhancing its command capabilities through the Glaz/Groza software and integrating UAVs into military operations. These efforts indicate preparations for extended military confrontation with NATO.
Dmitri VolkovFri Mar 27 2026Loading...Russia's Spring 2026 Offensive: Strategic Redeployments Signal Shift in Eastern Ukraine Campaign
Russian forces launched a Spring 2026 offensive in eastern Ukraine on March 19, employing battalion-sized mechanized assaults in the Lyman direction. Despite initial attacks being repelled by Ukrainian forces, Russia is redeploying elite units to bolster its operations. Concurrently, Ukrainian counteroffensives have disrupted Russian plans, leading to significant territorial gains. The air campaign has intensified, with numerous drone strikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure.
Dmitri VolkovTue Mar 24 2026Loading...
Russia's Drone Evolution Amid Battlefield Constraints: From Starlink Dependency to Communications Alternatives
Russian forces are adapting their drone operations and redeploying units in response to Ukrainian advances and communication challenges across the eastern and southern fronts. The 40th Naval Infantry Brigade and 120th Naval Infantry Division have been redeployed to the Oleksandrivka direction, while over 100 Molniya drones were destroyed by Ukrainian forces. Russia plans to expand its Unmanned Systems Forces to 101,000 personnel by April 1, 2026, amid ongoing operational setbacks.
Dmitri VolkovFri Mar 20 2026Loading...Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Dnipropetrovsk Disrupts Russian Spring Campaign Plans
Ukrainian forces liberated over 400 square kilometers in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts since late January 2026, significantly disrupting Russian operations. Russian forces, including the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade, are likely withdrawing to defensive positions. The 656th Motorized Rifle Regiment was observed engaging Ukrainian forces after months in reserve. Russian command has redeployed several units to counter the Ukrainian counteroffensive, indicating a shift from offensive to defensive operations.
Dmitri VolkovWed Mar 18 2026Loading...
Russian Force Redeployments Signal Growing Strain as Ukrainian Counteroffensive Gains Momentum
Ukrainian forces advanced in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, liberating over 400 square kilometers and forcing Russian units to shift to defensive operations. Elements of the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade and other units are redeploying to respond to the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The Russian military is also expanding its drone capabilities amid ongoing operational challenges.
Dmitri VolkovTue Mar 17 2026Loading...
Ukraine Intensifies Deep Strikes as France Delivers Next-Generation Air Defense
Ukrainian forces intensified their medium and long-range strike campaign against Russian military infrastructure in March 2026, targeting locations such as Krasnodar Krai and Belgorod City. France committed to supplying Ukraine with SAMP/T NG air defense systems for battlefield testing. Ukrainian operations included strikes on oil facilities and air defense systems, while Russian forces launched a significant number of drones and missiles. The situation indicates a strategic effort by Ukraine to degrade Russian capabilities ahead of anticipated offensives.
Dmitri VolkovMon Mar 16 2026Loading...Russia's Southern Redeployment: Strategic Shifts on the Zaporizhia Axis Signal New Phase in Ukraine Conflict
Russia redeployed the 76th Guards Air Assault Division and 40th Naval Infantry Brigade to the Zaporizhia sector from January to March 2026, indicating a strategic shift towards defense. Concurrently, Russia expanded its drone warfare capabilities, launching 99 drones against Ukrainian targets, including civilian infrastructure. The ongoing conflict has seen Ukraine liberate 244 square kilometers in the Zaporizhia area, while Russia's economic situation has improved due to rising oil prices, enabling continued military operations.
Dmitri VolkovMon Mar 16 2026Loading...Russian Force Redeployment to Zaporizhia: Strategic Shift or Operational Gamble?
Russian military command redeployed elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division and 68th Army Corps from Pokrovsk to the Zaporizhia direction in March 2026. This strategic shift reflects Moscow's response to Ukrainian counteroffensives, with significant territorial gains reported by Ukrainian forces. The redeployment indicates a transition from offensive to defensive priorities for Russian forces in the region.
Dmitri VolkovSat Mar 14 2026Loading...Russia's Strategic Redeployment in Zaporizhia: Elite VDV Forces Signal Shift in Southern Theater
Russian elite airborne forces, including the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, were redeployed to Zaporizhia from Donetsk Oblast between January and February 2026 to prepare for intensified operations. This strategic shift aims to counter Ukrainian advances, as Ukrainian forces have liberated significant territory in the region. The redeployment reflects a broader Russian military strategy emphasizing elite units capable of complex operations.
Dmitri VolkovSat Mar 14 2026Loading...
