Analysis & Reports

U.S. forces conducted airstrikes against al-Shabaab in Somalia between June 14 and June 19, 2026, with at least 68 strikes reported since the beginning of the year. General Christopher Donahue is set to leave his command of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, impacting operations in the region. The campaign increasingly relies on bases in Djibouti and Kenya, while the U.S. seeks to enhance its engagement with local Somali leaders.

Marie DuboisThu Jun 25 2026Loading...

On June 23, 2023, a Malian army patrol, accompanied by Russian fighters from the Africa Corps, killed four civilians near Tombouctou, with two victims reportedly struck by a drone. Local sources described the victims as Tuareg and Songhai herders. Following the incident, a dismembered body was discovered arranged in a swastika shape, raising concerns about operational conduct. Concurrently, the JNIM claimed an attack on a Malian army convoy in another region, highlighting the ongoing violence in Mali.

Marie DuboisWed Jun 24 2026Loading...

U.S. Africa Command conducted 68 airstrikes against al-Shabaab in Somalia since early 2026, with four strikes reported in June alone. The airstrikes aim to disrupt al-Shabaab's operations, but political instability in Mogadishu complicates the situation. Reports indicate civilian casualties from previous strikes, raising concerns about the effectiveness and consequences of the air campaign.

Marie DuboisWed Jun 24 2026Loading...

The Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) claimed responsibility for two attacks in Nigeria in 2026, resulting in the deaths of 17 soldiers near Giro Masa and Rumji Dan Tudu. This marks the first official acknowledgment of ISSP operations in Nigeria since 2019, indicating a significant shift in the jihadist landscape. The report emphasizes the operational challenges posed by the ISSP's presence in the northwestern region, complicating the Nigerian military's response.

Marie DuboisTue Jun 23 2026Loading...

Anti-immigration groups, including Operation Dudula, are mobilizing for potential violence against undocumented foreigners in South Africa, with June 30 set as a critical date for action. Planned attacks and lynchings are anticipated, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, as tensions rise ahead of local elections. Recent violence has already resulted in multiple casualties, prompting several African nations to repatriate their citizens.

Marie DuboisTue Jun 23 2026Loading...

JNIM launched an attack on Niamey on June 19, 2026, targeting the Diori Hamani International Airport and a nearby military base, resulting in 13 government personnel killed and 22 attackers killed. This marks the second assault on this strategic location within five months, indicating a shift in jihadist tactics towards urban centers in the Sahel.

Marie DuboisMon Jun 22 2026Loading...

In May 2026, Nigeria experienced 842 deaths and 279 kidnappings across 156 violent incidents, marking a significant increase in violence compared to the previous year. Armed groups, including Boko Haram and ISWAP, are actively involved in these incidents, indicating a dangerous escalation in insecurity across the country. The data suggests a shift in the nature of violence, with multiple conflict zones becoming interconnected.

Marie DuboisMon Jun 22 2026Loading...

JNIM conducted an attack on Niamey airport and the adjacent military base on June 19, 2026, resulting in 35 fatalities, including 13 Nigerien personnel. The assault involved a prolonged engagement with Nigerien forces, highlighting the vulnerability of key strategic locations in the Sahel. This incident marks the second attack on the airport complex within six months, indicating a troubling trend in regional security.

Marie DuboisSun Jun 21 2026Loading...

Over 1,000 civilians were killed by drone strikes in El-Obeid, Kordofan-North, between January and May 2026, attributed to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The strikes targeted various civilian locations, including a funeral and humanitarian aid transport, reflecting a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict that began in April 2023. The use of drones has dramatically increased, contributing to a high number of civilian casualties and altering the dynamics of warfare in Sudan.

Marie DuboisSun Jun 21 2026Loading...

JNIM exerts control over rural Mali through social governance, while the Malian junta attempts military reconquest. A coordinated attack on April 25 involved JNIM and Azawad separatists targeting Bamako and other cities. The junta responds with increased military pressure, but JNIM's tactics create a state of uncertainty in supply routes and daily life in Bamako. The presence of Russian forces adds complexity to the security dynamics.

Marie DuboisSat Jun 20 2026Loading...

On June 18, 2026, JNIM launched an armed attack on Diori Hamani International Airport and a nearby military base in Niamey, resulting in the deaths of 11 soldiers and 2 civilians, while 22 attackers were reportedly killed. This incident underscores the vulnerabilities of the Nigerien regime's security narrative and serves as a strategic message to both local communities and rival jihadist groups.

Marie DuboisSat Jun 20 2026Loading...

Tshisekedi's government faces a political crisis in Kinshasa as the Senate approved a constitutional referendum that may allow him to seek a third term. The M23 has intensified its military operations in the East, supported by Rwandan troops, while over seven million Congolese remain displaced. The situation is exacerbated by rising security incidents in the region, indicating a complex interplay between political instability and military challenges.

Marie DuboisFri Jun 19 2026Loading...

JNIM launched an attack on the Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey on June 18, 2026, resulting in 13 fatalities, including 11 soldiers and 2 civilians. The assault also led to the deaths of 22 attackers and the arrest of 20 suspects. This operation highlights the group's capability to strike significant military and civilian targets, following a similar attack by ISIS earlier in the year.

Marie DuboisFri Jun 19 2026Loading...

Armed men attacked the Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey on June 18, 2026, resulting in gunfire and explosions. This incident marks the second attack on the airport this year, following a previous assault claimed by ISIS. The airport serves as both a civilian and military facility, raising concerns about security vulnerabilities in urban areas. Nigerien Armed Forces responded to the attack, which underscores the ongoing threat from armed groups in the region.

Marie DuboisThu Jun 18 2026Loading...

Colombian contractors, known as Lobos del Desierto, are actively participating in drone warfare alongside the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan as of June 2026. They are providing critical skills in drone operation and logistics, significantly impacting the conflict. The RSF has adapted its tactics, leading to increased drone strikes that have resulted in over 1,000 civilian casualties. Key logistical routes for these contractors involve complex international travel.

Marie DuboisThu Jun 18 2026Loading...

On June 6, 2026, the Nigerian Army released 360 hostages in the Mandara Mountains after clashes with Boko Haram, which had killed five Nigerian soldiers a day earlier. The Lake Chad region is witnessing intensified competition between ISWAP and Boko Haram for control, impacting local communities and humanitarian conditions. The Nigerian military continues operations against jihadist factions, but the situation remains complex and fluid.

Marie DuboisWed Jun 17 2026Loading...

The U.S. conducted 64 airstrikes against al-Shabaab in Somalia in 2026, with AFRICOM acknowledging 63. A strike on November 15, 2025, reportedly killed at least 12 civilians, including children. Despite these operations, al-Shabaab maintains control over key territories and routes, undermining the effectiveness of U.S. air support. The situation reflects ongoing challenges in achieving lasting security in the region.

Marie DuboisWed Jun 17 2026Loading...

On May 15, 2026, armed men attacked schools in Yawota and Ahoro-Esiele, Oyo State, abducting 46 individuals, including 39 students and 7 teachers. One teacher was killed during the assault, and another died in captivity. This incident signifies a troubling expansion of kidnapping activities into southwestern Nigeria, a region previously viewed as secure.

Marie DuboisTue Jun 16 2026Loading...

JNIM has established a logistical blockade affecting supply routes to Bamako, significantly disrupting the flow of goods and resources. This blockade, which began after coordinated attacks in April 2026, targets key routes from Dakar, Conakry, and Abidjan, leading to shortages and increased prices in the capital. The group aims to exert pressure on the Malian state by making transportation too risky and costly.

Marie DuboisTue Jun 16 2026Loading...

ISWAP attacked a local security position held by hunters in Kautikari, Nigeria, on June 13, 2023. The initial defense was successful, but ISWAP regrouped, leading to a temporary retreat of the defenders. One civilian was injured, and one member of the Civilian Joint Task Force was hurt, while no soldiers were reported casualties. The incident underscores the ongoing threat posed by ISWAP in the region and the psychological impact on the local community.

Marie DuboisMon Jun 15 2026Loading...