Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
Burkina Faso suspends 1,174 organizations — Traoré weakens his anti-JNIM intelligence
Burkinabé military authorities suspended or dissolved 1,174 civil society organizations as of August 3, 2026. This action is seen as a tactical error, weakening local intelligence crucial for countering the JNIM, which operates extensively in the region. The military's actions have led to a loss of trust among local populations, complicating efforts to gather vital information against jihadist threats.
Marie DuboisTue Aug 04 2026Loading...AUSSOM demands 24 more months in Somalia — Al-Shabaab buys time in 2026
AUSSOM requested a 24-month extension for its mission in Somalia during a meeting in Kampala on July 31, 2026. The defense ministers from contributing countries expressed concerns about the potential security vacuum that could be filled by Al-Shabaab if the mission were to end. The current force comprises approximately 11,146 troops, 680 police, and 85 civilians, with significant implications for regional stability and military operations.
Marie DuboisMon Aug 03 2026Loading...
Bosaso becomes the new American bet in Somalia — AUSSOM wobbles after 500 million dollars in logistics
The U.S. is expanding its military base in Bosaso, Somalia, following a meeting with U.S. General Claude K. Tudor Jr. This expansion aims to enhance counter-terrorism operations while the U.S. ends its support for the UN logistics office for AUSSOM. Puntland forces, supported by U.S. airstrikes and intelligence, have regained territory from ISIS. The operational costs of the UN support office are significant, raising concerns about the future of AUSSOM's logistics capabilities.
Marie DuboisMon Aug 03 2026Loading...
The FLA exposes 200 prisoners in Mali — the Northern war escalates
The Front de libération de l'Azawad (FLA) publicly displayed a video of 200 captured Malian soldiers on August 1, impacting the military narrative in Mali. This event follows accusations of the execution of soldiers after surrender during an ambush on July 18. The FLA's actions, alongside the JNIM, indicate a tactical convergence against the Malian state, complicating military operations in the Gao-Anefis-Kidal region.
Marie DuboisSun Aug 02 2026Loading...AUSSOM loses American funding in 2026 — Somalia faces the al-Shabaab test
Military leaders from troop-contributing countries met in Kampala on July 29, 2023, to address the future of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) after the U.S. announced it would cease funding after December 31, 2026. The mission, which currently relies on U.S. logistical support, faces significant challenges from al-Shabaab and uncertainties regarding its operational capacity without American assistance.
Marie DuboisFri Jul 31 2026Loading...
Mali rejects the American option against JNIM — Washington discovers a front without a simple target
Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop stated on July 24, 2023, that Mali has not received official confirmation of U.S. military action against JNIM. The conflict has evolved, with JNIM and FLA conducting coordinated operations against Malian forces. The U.S. perceives an opportunity for intervention in Mali, particularly after its withdrawal from Niger, as the situation has become increasingly complex with jihadist and separatist groups involved.
Marie DuboisThu Jul 30 2026Loading...Tiani accuses France in 2026 — Niamey turns two airport attacks into informational warfare
General Abdourahamane Tiani accused France of orchestrating attacks on Niamey's Diori Hamani International Airport on January 28-29 and June 18, 2026, framing it as part of an information war. The JNIM group is implicated in these attacks, which are seen as a strategic move against Western influence. Niger's military is increasingly aligning with Russia, marking a significant shift in its defense posture.
Marie DuboisTue Jul 28 2026Loading...
ISWAP loses 3 propagandists in Cross Kauwa and reveals its weakness in Borno
ISWAP lost three propagandists, including Abu Salim al-Barnawi, during an attack in Cross Kauwa on July 12. The Nigerian military identified the casualties and recovered video equipment, highlighting ISWAP's reliance on media for propaganda. Concurrently, a coordinated attack by ISWAP was repelled at Logomani, resulting in one Nigerian soldier's death. Unconfirmed reports suggest 104 soldiers may be missing following a prior engagement.
Marie DuboisMon Jul 27 2026Loading...Washington envisions strikes in Mali in 2026 — JNIM forces an American return
On July 18, 2023, an ambush by JNIM and the Front for the Liberation of Azawad killed at least 50 Malian soldiers near Anefis, Gao, in Northern Mali. The U.S. is contemplating military strikes against JNIM as the situation in Mali becomes increasingly complex with Russian support for Malian forces and ongoing threats from armed groups. This incident highlights the challenges faced by the Malian military in securing key routes.
Marie DuboisSat Jul 25 2026Loading...Nigeria 2026 mobilizes 28,000 recruits — 40 hostages reveal the northwest front
In July 2026, the Nigerian Armed Forces mobilized 28,000 recruits in response to ongoing security challenges, including the recent kidnapping of over 40 individuals in Zamfara. The attacks are linked to Kachalla Sa'idu's gang, highlighting the escalating violence in the region. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced the expansion of the military to address these threats.
Marie DuboisFri Jul 24 2026Loading...JNIM in Mali 2026 — Washington considers strikes in a Sahelian trap
The U.S. administration is considering military airstrikes against Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in Mali following an ambush that killed at least 50 Malian soldiers. This discussion emerged publicly on July 22, 2026, amid concerns over the effectiveness of Russian security partnerships in the region. The attack highlights operational coordination between JNIM and the Front de libération de l'Azawad (FLA), complicating the military landscape in northern Mali.
Marie DuboisThu Jul 23 2026Loading...Angola condemns two Russians in 2026 — 8 and 11 years for a war of influence
Two Russian nationals, Igor Ratchin and Lev Lakshtanov, were sentenced to 8 and 11 years in prison by the Angolan judiciary on July 23, 2026, for conspiracy, espionage, terrorism, and illegal currency possession. They were accused of conducting political influence operations aimed at destabilizing the Angolan government and manipulating public perception. This case underscores Russia's continued efforts to exert influence in Africa, particularly through disinformation and local recruitment.
Marie DuboisThu Jul 23 2026Loading...Ansaru loses two leaders in Nigeria in 2026 — 32 charges expose its Sahel network
Two leaders of Ansaru pleaded guilty to multiple charges, including terrorism and kidnapping, in Abuja on July 21, 2026. This development highlights the group's operational capabilities and connections to Al-Qaeda affiliates, posing a significant threat to security in Nigeria. The government is pursuing the death penalty, indicating a strong stance against the group's activities.
Marie DuboisTue Jul 21 2026Loading...El-Obeid under threat from RSF — 100,000 displaced expose the new lock of Sudan
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are exerting pressure on El-Obeid, Sudan, where over 100,000 displaced individuals are surviving in camps with reduced rations. The G7 has urged the RSF to halt actions that could lead to civilian atrocities. The situation is critical as supply routes are threatened, impacting humanitarian aid and increasing the risk of a humanitarian crisis.
Marie DuboisSat Jul 18 2026Loading...Boko Haram and ISWAP Use AI in 2026 — Lake Chad Changes Doctrine
Boko Haram and ISWAP are employing artificial intelligence in 2026 to enhance their tactical capabilities in Maiduguri, Borno, Nigeria. They are using AI tools for training in operational tactics, including improving explosive devices and motorcycle maneuvers. This shift indicates a significant evolution in their military operations, with ISWAP demonstrating superior organizational discipline in integrating these technologies.
Marie DuboisWed Jul 15 2026Loading...Russia strengthens the AES in 2026 — Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso seek military depth
On July 9, 2026, Russia announced plans to strengthen military cooperation with the Sahel Alliance (AES) amid ongoing jihadist attacks in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. This cooperation aims to enhance military capabilities, including the provision of drones and electronic warfare systems. The AES faces challenges in maintaining security and effective military operations against insurgent threats in the region.
Marie DuboisMon Jul 13 2026Loading...Algiers and Bamako reopen the sky in 2026 — Tinzaouaten changes the calculations of the Sahel
On July 11, 2026, Algeria and Mali reopened their airspace for civilian and military flights after a 15-month closure due to a drone incident. This development marks a significant step in restoring diplomatic relations between the two nations, which had been strained following the downing of a Malian drone. The reopening is crucial for military operations and regional security, as it allows for better coordination against armed groups in the Sahel region.
Marie DuboisSun Jul 12 2026Loading...Egypt opens the Octagon in 2026 — 22,000 acres to manage African crises
Egypt inaugurated the Octagon, a strategic military headquarters, on July 4, 2023, in the New Administrative Capital. The complex spans 22,000 acres and aims to centralize military command and crisis management to address regional threats. It is designed to improve data sharing and operational efficiency for the Egyptian Armed Forces.
Marie DuboisMon Jul 06 2026Loading...AFC/M23 expands its grip in the DRC — 35% of territory gained despite Washington and Doha
AFC/M23 has expanded its control in eastern DRC, gaining 35% more territory as of July 1, 2026, despite international pressure. The group, supported by over 10,000 Rwandan soldiers, aims to establish a federal republic in the region. Their activities include administration and recruitment in occupied areas, indicating a shift from rebellion to a more structured political-military organization.
Marie DuboisThu Jul 02 2026Loading...Burkina Faso Breaks with Paris — 2026 Exposes the Washington-Moscow Battle in the Sahel
Burkina Faso formally severed diplomatic relations with France on June 26, 2026, accusing it of neo-colonial ambitions. This decision, led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, has been in preparation since 2023 and reflects a broader trend of military regimes in the Sahel seeking to negotiate with foreign powers. The junte claims to maintain human and cultural ties with France despite the diplomatic break, which may impact military operations against jihadist groups in the region.
Marie DuboisTue Jun 30 2026Loading...
