Analysis & Reports

U.S. Africa Command is withdrawing approximately 200 troops from Nigeria by 2026, while Nigeria seeks to establish a tri-border military sector with Benin and Niger. The withdrawal does not signify a complete abandonment, as the U.S. continues to support Nigeria through intelligence sharing. The Nigerian military aims to close gaps exploited by jihadist groups, particularly in the context of ongoing operations against ISWAP.

Marie DuboisFri Jul 03 2026Loading...

Between April 25 and June 9, 2026, 73 civilians were killed in Mali due to conflicts involving JNIM, FLA, and Africa Corps. Notable incidents occurred in Zambougou, Gao, and Kidal, where military operations targeted civilian populations. The JNIM has intensified attacks on supply routes, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and threatening the stability of Bamako and surrounding areas.

Marie DuboisFri Jul 03 2026Loading...

The Unified Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) is deploying 6,000 troops to seek a route out of the Sahel trap, focusing on military coordination among Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. In July 2026, the AES aims to establish a command chain for cross-border operations, responding to recent jihadist attacks on strategic locations. The operation Yereko 2 has shown minimal coordination capabilities, highlighting the challenges faced by the AES in the region.

Marie DuboisThu Jul 02 2026Loading...

AFC/M23 has expanded its control in eastern DRC, gaining 35% more territory as of July 1, 2026, despite international pressure. The group, supported by over 10,000 Rwandan soldiers, aims to establish a federal republic in the region. Their activities include administration and recruitment in occupied areas, indicating a shift from rebellion to a more structured political-military organization.

Marie DuboisThu Jul 02 2026Loading...

JNIM and FLA are conducting coordinated attacks to encircle Bamako in 2026, targeting supply routes and civilian vehicles. This has created a siege-like situation, disrupting fuel supplies and military logistics. The attacks have affected multiple locations, including Gao, Kidal, and Mopti, and have led to significant civilian impacts.

Marie DuboisThu Jul 02 2026Loading...

Africa Corps deployed FPV kamikaze drones in northern Mali in 2026 to target rebel and jihadist positions. This adaptation follows the loss of Kidal and aims to disrupt enemy movements. The use of these drones highlights both a tactical shift and challenges in local intelligence and logistics for Russian forces.

Marie DuboisWed Jul 01 2026Loading...

An airstrike by Malian forces near Inkadewane killed eight civilians, including a health program official, on Friday. This incident is part of escalating military operations in the Ménaka region, where Africa Corps has also conducted drone strikes against suspected terrorist vehicles. The situation raises concerns about civilian safety and military accountability in the area.

Marie DuboisWed Jul 01 2026Loading...

Burkina Faso formally severed diplomatic relations with France on June 26, 2026, accusing it of neo-colonial ambitions. This decision, led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, has been in preparation since 2023 and reflects a broader trend of military regimes in the Sahel seeking to negotiate with foreign powers. The junte claims to maintain human and cultural ties with France despite the diplomatic break, which may impact military operations against jihadist groups in the region.

Marie DuboisTue Jun 30 2026Loading...

ISIS-Sahel exhibited captured weapons in a video, claiming responsibility for three attacks against the Nigerien army on June 28, 2023, in Inates, Tillabéri region. The group aims to demonstrate its ongoing threat in border areas, despite the lack of confirmed details regarding the weapons' origins. The situation highlights the challenges faced by Niger in maintaining security and sovereignty in the region.

Marie DuboisTue Jun 30 2026Loading...

U.S. officials engaged with Mali's government to re-establish intelligence operations amid rising jihadist threats. The U.S. aims to strengthen ties with Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso for security and economic interests, shifting focus from democratic transitions to counter-terrorism. Recent attacks by jihadist groups underscore the urgency of U.S. involvement in the region.

Marie DuboisMon Jun 29 2026Loading...

ISSP claimed responsibility for attacks in Nigeria, resulting in the deaths of 17 soldiers in two incidents: 10 soldiers in Giro Masa, Kebbi, on March 24, 2026, and 7 soldiers near Rumji Dan Tudu, Sokoto, in May 2026. This marks the first official acknowledgment of ISSP's operations in Nigeria since 2019, indicating a significant shift in the operational landscape.

Marie DuboisMon Jun 29 2026Loading...

The Combined Maritime Task Force (CMTF) launched on June 1, 2026, in Lagos, aims to enhance maritime security against piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, involving 26 countries. Nigeria has contributed initial resources, including three ships and personnel, but the success of the CMTF hinges on cooperation among member states and addressing logistical challenges. Despite a reduction in piracy, the region remains vulnerable to organized crime, necessitating a coordinated response.

Marie DuboisMon Jun 29 2026Loading...

JNIM's siege of Bamako has resulted in the deaths of 73 civilians since the offensive began on April 25, 2023. In Zambougou, civilians were forced off buses and vehicles were burned. The Malian Armed Forces have also conducted operations leading to civilian casualties, including drone strikes. The ongoing conflict has severely impacted civilian life, with fuel shortages and increased violence in the region.

Marie DuboisMon Jun 29 2026Loading...

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are preparing to assault El-Obeid in June 2026, threatening civilians and humanitarian efforts. Over 1,000 civilians have already been killed by drone strikes in Sudan this year. Humanitarian agencies are bracing for mass evacuations as the RSF seeks to control this strategic city in North Kordofan, which is vital for supply routes.

Marie DuboisSun Jun 28 2026Loading...

The Nigerian Army inaugurated a wargaming center in Abuja on June 26, 2023, to enhance military planning against Boko Haram and ISWAP. This center aims to improve coordination across land, maritime, air, cyber, and informational dimensions. Despite claims of neutralizing over 13,000 terrorists, challenges remain in controlling rural areas and ensuring effective military responses. The center is expected to facilitate better strategic assessments and logistical planning for future operations.

Marie DuboisSun Jun 28 2026Loading...

In 2026, the M23 and Congolese Armed Forces are engaged in an ongoing conflict in eastern Congo, resulting in 632 civilian casualties documented by the UN in North Kivu and Ituri. The DRC has accused Rwanda of supporting M23 and violating international law, prompting diplomatic actions at the International Court of Justice. Control of key routes remains critical for both military and humanitarian operations.

Marie DuboisSat Jun 27 2026Loading...

JNIM attacked military positions in Koualou, Benin, resulting in casualties among soldiers and civilians, and the loss of weapons and equipment. The Benin Armed Forces, with around 12,000 active personnel, are facing challenges from jihadist groups operating from neighboring countries. The government is increasing defense spending to address these threats, but logistical and operational challenges remain significant.

Marie DuboisSat Jun 27 2026Loading...

JNIM attacked a Malian military base in Boulkessi, resulting in at least 60 soldiers killed and 40 wounded. The assault led to concerns about potential captives among the 280 soldiers stationed there. Following this, JNIM also claimed coordinated attacks in Tombouctou, indicating a broader operational strategy against Malian forces.

Marie DuboisFri Jun 26 2026Loading...

JNIM launched an attack on Niamey on June 18, targeting the Diori Hamani Airport and a nearby military base, resulting in 13 fatalities, including 11 military personnel. The attackers employed civilian vehicles to infiltrate the area, leading to the deaths of 22 assailants and the arrest of 20 suspects. This incident reflects ongoing jihadist efforts to undermine Niger's military operations and control.

Marie DuboisFri Jun 26 2026Loading...

JNIM attacked Niamey on June 18, targeting the Diori Hamani International Airport and a nearby military base, resulting in 13 deaths, including 11 Nigerien soldiers. Nigerien security forces repelled the assault, killing 22 attackers. This incident marks a significant tactical evolution, as assailants disguised themselves as civilians to approach the sensitive site.

Marie DuboisThu Jun 25 2026Loading...