Analysis & Reports

Italy announced it will send warships to protect its commercial vessels through Bab el-Mandeb on September 18, 2026, while South Korea reiterated it will not send combat troops to the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi control of Bab el-Mandeb are testing the Gulf's ability to protect its exports. Saudi Arabia is resorting to ship-to-ship transfers to move oil due to threats from Houthi attacks.

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Saudi air defenses intercepted a Houthi drone near Mecca on September 15, 2026, highlighting concerns over the depletion of Patriot missile stocks amid ongoing threats. Houthi forces claimed attacks on military and oil facilities, prompting Saudi Arabia to seek defensive assistance from multiple countries. The incident underscores the challenges faced by Saudi Arabia in maintaining air defense capabilities against Houthi aggression.

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FNSS completed pre-delivery acceptance tests for the first Kaplan APC in Turkey. The vehicle will be shipped to Indonesia for final acceptance tests with the Indonesian Army. A second Kaplan APC is concurrently being built in Indonesia as part of a technology transfer agreement. The Kaplan APC is designed to carry a crew of up to 13 and can be configured for various military roles.

Lockheed Martin and L3Harris are significantly increasing the production of Patriot PAC-3 missiles, aiming for 2,000 units annually by 2027. This surge responds to urgent demands from Ukraine and NATO allies facing missile threats. The production expansion highlights the need for a diversified air defense strategy, as current reliance on expensive interceptors is unsustainable against cheaper drone threats. NATO's air defense capabilities remain under strain, necessitating coordinated procurement and increased production efforts across Europe.

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The U.S. Department of Defense has incurred approximately $38 billion in costs for combat operations in Iran as of August 1, 2023, with ongoing monthly expenses projected at $2-3 billion. Significant expenditures include $21.7 billion for replacing munitions, with a notable depletion of interceptor inventory. The report highlights the financial strain on military resources and the potential implications for future conflicts.

Iranian strikes damaged hundreds of U.S. military and diplomatic buildings across Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan. As of August 27, 2023, the strikes resulted in the destruction of dozens of U.S. aircraft and 18 military personnel fatalities. The total cost of Operation Epic Fury has reached approximately $33.4 billion, with significant impacts on U.S. military infrastructure and logistics.

U.S. Air Force officials praised the F-35 Lightning II for its combat readiness during recent operations in the Middle East. The aircraft demonstrated high mission-capable rates and effective maintenance, even in contested environments. Officials noted the F-35's versatility and the need for rapid certification of new weapons to meet emerging mission requirements. The demand for the F-35 is expected to increase as operational needs evolve.

The U.S. Air Force's F-35 Lightning II performed effectively in the Iran War due to prioritized logistics and spare parts support. Despite previous readiness issues, the aircraft's operational tempo increased significantly. However, concerns remain about the sustainability of this support given the fleet's size and logistical challenges.

The U.S. military has reported a significant shortage of advanced weaponry and damage to its facilities in the Middle East due to Iranian offensives. Key military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan have suffered extensive damage. The U.S. Navy's core hub in Bahrain was destroyed, complicating logistics and supply chains for military operations. The Pentagon has confirmed these issues, despite previous denials from the White House regarding ammunition shortages.

Operation Epic Fury resulted in significant damage to U.S. military assets, with hundreds of buildings and dozens of aircraft destroyed or damaged across multiple locations including Kuwait and Bahrain. From February 28 to June 30, 2023, 417 servicemembers were wounded and 7 were killed, with the operation costing approximately $22 billion in munitions. The Pentagon's Inspector General report highlights strategic inventory shortfalls and concerns over munitions production capabilities.

Russia has begun supplying Iran with upgraded munitions and targeting data, enhancing Iran's military capabilities amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. This partnership includes the production of Shahed drones in Russia and the development of hypersonic missiles. The collaboration poses a significant threat to U.S. forces in the region, with increased sophistication in Iranian drone attacks expected.

The U.S. military shifted from using helicopters to ground-based medical evacuations in Kuwait and Iraq during Operation Epic Fury due to threats from Iranian drones. This change highlights ongoing logistical challenges, including reliance on host country hospitals for severe injuries. Medical officials have warned that future conflicts will pose greater risks to U.S. troops as adversaries develop advanced weaponry.

On September 15, 2026, Saudi Civil Defense announced the end of danger in six cities, including Yanbu, amid alerts related to the US-Iranian war. Concurrently, reports revealed that the US Department of Defense has spent around $33 billion on military operations but is experiencing a shortage of certain munitions. The situation underscores the logistical challenges faced by both the US and Saudi Arabia in maintaining effective air defense capabilities against potential Iranian threats.

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The U.S. Department of Defense reported on September 14, 2023, that advanced weapon stockpiles are in short supply due to the conflict with Iran. Damage has occurred to military bases and aircraft across several Middle Eastern countries, including Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. The conflict has resulted in significant financial costs and logistical challenges for the U.S. military.

Saudi Arabia shut down the East-West Pipeline on September 14, 2026, following drone attacks that originated from Iraqi territory. The incident exposed vulnerabilities in Gulf energy defense, potentially threatening 4% of global oil supply. Iraq reported finding suspected launch platforms near its border with Iran, raising security concerns about the region's stability.

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Iran launched severe drone and missile attacks on the U.S. Navy base in Bahrain, causing extensive damage and leading to the evacuation of over 1,000 military family members. The base, critical for the Navy's operations in the Middle East, has been rendered largely unusable, with supplies being redirected to Diego Garcia. The Navy's leadership has indicated that a return to the base is not imminent.

Saudi Arabia halted the operation of the East-West pipeline on September 12, 2026, after a drone attack damaged facilities along its route, reportedly launched from Iraq. The Houthi movement has taken control of the entire Yemeni coastline along the Red Sea, complicating Saudi Arabia's military response. This incident highlights the vulnerabilities in Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure and the challenges posed by low-cost drone attacks.

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The U.S. Army has modified a contract with Rolls-Royce Solutions America, adding $39.1 million for the production of engines for Israel's Eitan armored vehicle. This brings the total contract value to approximately $158.9 million, with production expected to be completed by September 11, 2027. The funding originates from Foreign Military Sales funds allocated to Israel since 2010, highlighting a long-term military procurement process.

The U.S. Air Force modified the Foreign Military Sales agreement for the KC-46A Pegasus tanker, increasing the ceiling from $5.7 billion to $19.1 billion. This change allows for expanded sales to allies like Japan and Israel without needing new contracts for each order. The contract will remain active until April 28, 2035, supporting ongoing foreign military sales and logistics for the KC-46A.

Saudi Arabia closed the East-West pipeline on September 10-11, 2026, following drone attacks launched from Iraq and Houthi advances in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The Houthi movement captured key locations along the Red Sea coast, threatening Saudi oil exports and highlighting vulnerabilities in the kingdom's defense infrastructure. This situation raises concerns about regional security and the ability of Saudi forces to respond effectively to multi-front threats.

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