Analysis & Reports

Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on Moscow on September 20, 2023, targeting key oil infrastructure and residential areas, resulting in three deaths and 20 injuries. The operation involved 1,600 drones, with 450 aimed at the capital, damaging the Moscow Oil Refinery and prompting evacuations in affected neighborhoods. This attack coincided with the final day of Russia's parliamentary elections, raising concerns about its impact on the voting process.

On September 17, 2025, Russia's Ministry of Defense reported targeting energy and industrial infrastructure in Ukraine, resulting in 19 injuries and the destruction of 131 aerial targets. In retaliation, Ukraine launched drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and military airfields. This escalation reflects a shift in the conflict towards economic warfare, with both sides attacking critical infrastructure nightly.

Ukraine produced nearly 2 million drones in 2024, while Russia increased its production to 3,000 jet-powered UAVs monthly. Both nations are engaged in drone warfare, prompting NATO to reassess its military strategies and increase defense budgets. A new air defense coalition has formed among European allies to address the shortage of U.S.-made Patriot missiles.

On 20 September 2026, Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted a coordinated drone attack involving 450 drones on Moscow, resulting in at least three deaths and damage to an oil facility. This attack coincided with the final day of Russia's parliamentary election, challenging the effectiveness of Russian air defenses. The incident highlights Ukraine's ability to exert pressure on Russia's capital and its political narrative.

Alexandra ReevesSun Sep 20 2026Loading...

CSTO members Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan conducted military exercises on September 19, 2026, in Koktal, Kazakhstan, to enhance their defensive capabilities against potential threats from Afghanistan. The exercises involved 1500 troops and 115 drones, focusing on countering illegal armed formations. Tajikistan's strategic position, sharing a 1357 km border with Afghanistan, underscores the importance of these maneuvers in regional security.

Dmitri VolkovSun Sep 20 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces launched over 1,100 drones targeting various locations in Russia, including Moscow, on September 20, 2026, coinciding with Russia's parliamentary elections. The attack aimed to demonstrate Ukraine's capability to reach the Russian capital, resulting in two deaths and damage to infrastructure. Russia claimed to have intercepted 1,110 drones, highlighting vulnerabilities in its air defense system.

Alexandra ReevesSun Sep 20 2026Loading...

Russian air defense claimed the destruction of 249 drones over Moscow on September 20, 2026, amid heightened tensions and expanded strikes on Ukraine. This incident coincided with the first parliamentary elections since the onset of the full-scale war, prompting Poland to raise its aviation alert level. The reported number highlights the challenges faced by Russian air defense in managing multiple threats.

Dmitri VolkovSun Sep 20 2026Loading...

Ukraine launched an unprecedented drone attack against Russia, deploying over 1600 drones, with 450 intercepted by Russian air defenses targeting Moscow. This operation is noted as the largest of its kind to date.

The Russian Armed Forces intercepted and shot down 1110 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones over 20 locations, including Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk Oblasts, on September 20. This operation reflects ongoing defensive actions against UAV incursions in Russian airspace.

Ukrainian drones were intercepted and shot down near Moscow from September 19 to 20, 2023, with 450 drones reported. The attacks caused damage to a refinery and residential buildings, resulting in two fatalities and six injuries. A high-rise building caught fire, prompting the evacuation of 400 residents.

Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow and its surrounding areas in the early morning of the 20th, with over 150 drones reported. Most of these drones were intercepted by Russian air defense systems. Additionally, Kyiv issued air raid alerts due to threats from missiles and drones.

Ukrainian forces struck the control point of the Orion drone in Crimea on September 18, 2026, targeting associated launch sites and storage facilities. This operation aims to disrupt Russian military command and control capabilities in the region, reflecting a strategic shift in Ukrainian tactics. The effectiveness of the strike and the extent of damage remain to be independently verified.

Dmitri VolkovSat Sep 19 2026Loading...

A drone struck a cooling tower at the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant on September 17, while the reactor unit was operational. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that the reactor's operation was unaffected and no fire occurred. IAEA Director General Grossi condemned the attack, stating that any assault on nuclear facilities is unacceptable and called for maximum military restraint to mitigate nuclear accident risks.

Ukraine's Defense Forces destroyed a Russian S-400 air defense launcher in Bryansk Oblast on September 17 using FP-1 drones. The launcher, modified for ground strikes, was located near Poroshino. This operation highlights Ukraine's focus on eliminating Russian air defense capabilities, particularly those that can target cities like Kyiv.

On September 18, 2026, Ukraine launched a significant drone barrage toward Moscow, involving 350 drones, while Russia continued its military operations against Ukraine. The Shahed-136 drones are being used to test NATO's air defenses, creating ambiguity and challenging the alliance's response protocols. This situation highlights the evolving nature of drone warfare and its implications for regional security.

Alexandra ReevesFri Sep 18 2026Loading...

Russia is training over 8,000 specialists for its Unmanned Systems Forces as of July 2026, focusing on building institutional systems to capture and generalize battlefield experiences. NATO is advised to shift its focus from mere adaptation of Russian military capabilities to their reproducibility, which is essential for understanding the evolving threat. The report emphasizes the importance of assessing how quickly Russia can regenerate military capabilities after losses.

Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow on September 18, 2026, coinciding with the start of parliamentary elections, with over 350 drones involved. The attack included strikes on a refinery in Yaroslavl and a military airfield in Rostov. Ukrainian forces aim to increase the political cost of the ongoing war for Russia, while the Russian military adapts its defenses and missile capabilities in response to these drone threats.

Dmitri VolkovFri Sep 18 2026Loading...

On September 18, 2026, Russian air defense intercepted 629 Ukrainian drones over Southern Russia. Concurrently, Ukrainian strikes led to the disruption of operations at the Syzran and Saratov oil refineries. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of Ukrainian radar and electronic warfare systems, highlighting the ongoing military engagement and the shift towards a war of attrition targeting economic infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovFri Sep 18 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian airbase in Rostov Oblast on September 17, 2026, damaging six aircraft. This attack is considered one of the most significant against Russian aviation infrastructure in the past year. While Russian officials confirmed the activation of air defense systems, they did not disclose the extent of the damage, indicating a successful strike by Ukrainian forces.

Dmitri VolkovThu Sep 17 2026Loading...

The Russian Navy is developing the Lada-class submarines to replace the older Kilo-class, with plans to commission a total of nine vessels. The lead ship, Sankt Peterburg, faced significant design flaws and was decommissioned in 2024. The second and third submarines, Kronshtadt and Velikiye Luke, were commissioned in 2024 and 2025, respectively, featuring advanced stealth and combat capabilities.