Analysis & Reports

China's Type 094 nuclear submarine successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on July 6, 2023, in the South China Sea. This test marks a significant advancement in China's naval nuclear deterrent capabilities, emphasizing the need for effective anti-submarine warfare to ensure operational success. The missile's trajectory towards the deep Pacific indicates a strategic shift in deterrence posture.

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China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, increasing from 200 to approximately 620 warheads as of 2024. The Pentagon projects that this number could exceed 1,000 by 2030, with significant construction of new missile silos in Yumen, Hami, and Ordos. The expansion includes a completed nuclear triad, indicating a shift in China's military capabilities.

On June 27, 2026, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force submarine sank the decommissioned USS Juneau during a sinking exercise in the Philippine Sea, over 200 nautical miles off Guam. This event was part of Valiant Shield 2026, involving multiple military forces and showcasing the capabilities of JMSDF submarines in joint operations.

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China and Russia conducted a joint naval exercise from July 6-13, 2026, in Qingdao, Shandong, involving multiple naval vessels and submarines. Following the exercise, both navies organized a joint maritime patrol in the Pacific Ocean. The exercise included various operational drills such as reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare.

The People's Liberation Army Navy conducted training exercises with J-15T aircraft on July 14, 2023, focusing on carrier operations and ground personnel coordination. The exercises aimed to enhance the operational capabilities of the Fujian aircraft carrier, which is expected to be fully operational by 2026. The training included the use of YJ-83K anti-ship missiles, emphasizing the importance of standardizing complex carrier operations.

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Farmers' groups protested in Tokyo on the 17th against the Japanese government's significant increase in defense spending and arms exports. They called for improvements in agricultural conditions and food security, arguing that true national security lies in ensuring citizens do not go hungry. Concerns were voiced about Japan's military direction and the implications of exporting military equipment.

The Army 953 Hospital and Army Medical University conducted a 23-day medical mission in Shigatse, Tibet, covering over 6000 kilometers to provide health services to soldiers. The team addressed various health issues, including insomnia and pulmonary hypertension, while also offering health education and emergency training. Psychological support was provided, and electronic health records were established for the soldiers.

Japan and Vietnam agreed to jointly develop fast landing craft during a meeting in Tokyo in July 2026. This collaboration aims to enhance rapid transport capabilities for defense and disaster response in the South China Sea. The project is significant for Japan's defense industry cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and reflects the sensitive political dynamics in the region.

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The Naval Aviation Force of the Southern Theater Command conducted live-fire attack training, successfully firing multiple artillery shells at targets. This exercise took place during the summer season.

China has resurrected the fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS), conducting secretive tests in 2021 that demonstrated its capability to evade U.S. early-warning systems. The U.S. Senate confirmed Gen. Michael Guetlein to lead the Golden Dome missile defense project in response to this threat. The Defense Intelligence Agency projects that China could field 60 operational FOBS by 2035, amid a rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal.

Canada announced a $1.4 billion contract to acquire 190 armored combat support vehicles from General Dynamics Land Systems-Canada, increasing its fleet from 360 to 550 vehicles. Additionally, 35 vehicles will be built for Ukraine. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance domestic defense capabilities and reduce reliance on U.S. military equipment, as stated by Prime Minister Mark Carney during the announcement in Victoria, British Columbia.

China announced a military training closure in the South China Sea from July 21 to July 24, restricting entry to practice military control. This action coincides with the anniversary of the 2016 arbitral ruling against China's maritime claims, highlighting Beijing's intent to assert its influence. The closure aims to test the responses of regional actors, including the Philippines and its allies, regarding maritime operations in contested waters.

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HTMS Chakri Naruebet, the world's smallest aircraft carrier, has been utilized by the Royal Thai Navy as a floating command center and hospital during disaster relief operations, including recent flooding in southern Thailand. Commissioned in 1997, it has not operated fixed-wing aircraft since 2006 and is primarily docked at Sattahip. Despite its limited military capabilities, it has provided significant humanitarian assistance during crises.

Taiwan established a new Littoral Combat Command in July 2026, integrating 400 Harpoon Block II missiles and 100 truck-mounted launchers into its coastal defense. This move follows the U.S. Navy's conclusion of the classic Harpoon production, marking a significant shift in military strategy. The Harpoon missile, with a history of widespread deployment, is set to play a crucial role in Taiwan's defense against potential maritime threats.

The U.S. Air Force is retiring the F-15C Eagles, with the last units departing from Kadena Air Base in Japan in late 2024. The F-15C, known for its unmatched air-to-air combat record, will be replaced by the multirole F-15EX. This transition marks the end of an era for a fighter designed exclusively for air superiority.

Japan and Vietnam are in discussions to potentially launch a joint project to build new fast landing vessels. The defense chiefs from both nations met recently in Japan to agree on this cooperation, which aims to enhance defense industrial collaboration. The envisioned vessels are designed for rapid transport of personnel and supplies from larger ships to shore, reflecting the growing strategic partnership between the two countries amid regional maritime pressures.

The China Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning prohibiting entry into parts of the South China Sea due to military training scheduled from July 21, 6:00 AM to July 24, 6:00 PM.

The Australian Army conducted its first live-fire training exercise using AH-64E Apache helicopters on Australian soil.

The U.S. Air Force doubled its planned F-15EX Eagle II fleet from 129 to 267 aircraft in the Fiscal Year 2027 budget due to capacity shortfalls and delays in the F-35 program. This decision reflects a shift in strategy to address immediate fighter capacity needs, with plans to increase production at Boeing's St. Louis plant. The F-15EX will be stationed at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, enhancing the Air Force's operational capabilities in the Pacific region.

RIMPAC 2026 involved 38 countries and over 30,000 personnel testing logistics and advanced manufacturing capabilities in Hawaii. The U.S. Navy demonstrated the use of autonomous boats and 3D printers to address supply chain challenges. The exercise highlighted the importance of maintaining operational readiness despite long supply lines and equipment failures. Key technologies included deployable manufacturing cells and unmanned surface vessels for resupply operations.

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