Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian drones entered Baltic airspace, striking targets in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania on March 25, 2025. The incursions, attributed to Russian electronic warfare, raised alarms in the affected countries. No injuries occurred, but the incidents highlighted vulnerabilities in Baltic air defenses against drone threats.

Russian forces have encountered significant obstacles in their spring offensive against Ukraine, particularly in the Fortress Belt cities. Ukrainian counteroffensive operations have liberated over 400 square kilometers, forcing Russia to redeploy elite units from critical sectors. The Kremlin's strategic focus appears to be shifting towards negotiations as military objectives remain unachievable. Additionally, Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have severely impacted Moscow's war-making capacity.

Dmitri VolkovFri Mar 27 2026Loading...

In March 2026, the U.S. government expressed clear support for Japan's defense capabilities, reflecting a strategic intent to enhance Japan's military role in Northeast Asia. Japan plans to increase its defense budget and participate in joint military exercises with the U.S. and the Philippines, marking a significant shift in its military posture. The U.S. is also facilitating maintenance for key fighter jets, indicating a deepening military partnership.

Tanaka TakashiFri Mar 27 2026Loading...

The Royal Navy operates six Astute-class submarines, but only one is currently combat-ready. HMS Anson was deployed to Australia on January 10, 2026, as part of the AUKUS agreement, which aims to enhance security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. The U.K. plans to replace the Astute-class with 12 next-generation nuclear-powered submarines by the late 2030s, but current operational availability is hampered by maintenance issues.

A U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress declared an in-flight emergency over Southampton, England, on March 24, issuing a '7700' distress signal before safely returning to RAF Fairford. This incident occurred amidst ongoing U.S. military operations targeting Iranian missile sites, highlighting the aircraft's role in modern airstrike capabilities.

Russia's air force has conducted 30,000 sorties over Ukraine since February 2022 but has failed to establish air superiority. Despite operating modern aircraft like the Su-34 and Su-35S, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have suffered significant losses, including 41 Su-34s. Ukraine's air defenses, bolstered by Western systems, have effectively countered Russian air operations, resulting in high kill rates of enemy aircraft and munitions.

Russian forces launched mechanized assaults in Borova and Lyman in March 2026 but faced significant challenges due to inadequate preparation and systemic failures. Ukrainian forces successfully advanced in multiple sectors and conducted deep strikes against Russian infrastructure in Leningrad Oblast. The operational situation reflects ongoing difficulties for Russia, including high casualties and logistical issues.

Dmitri VolkovThu Mar 26 2026Loading...

ABRIS DG's UNEX UGV won the XTech Edge Strike Ground Competition held in Vilseck, Germany, from 3 to 13 March 2026. The vehicle was recognized for its high mobility, amphibious capability, and payload capacity, leading to a 10-year contract with the US Army. The UNEX UGV is designed for high-risk operations and can handle complex terrain.

Two Ukrainian UAS entered Baltic airspace as part of a drone barrage targeting the Russian port of Ust-Luga, where Shadow tankers are active.

In February 2026, ECOWAS approved the formation of a new counter-terrorism force comprising 1,650 troops from six West African nations. Concurrently, U.S. troops were deployed in Nigeria to assist in counter-terrorism efforts, marking a significant shift in regional security dynamics. The report emphasizes the challenges faced by ECOWAS in mobilizing resources and the implications of U.S. involvement in the region's security landscape.

Marie DuboisThu Mar 26 2026Loading...

The Russian military's spring offensive in March 2026 faced significant challenges, with internal criticism highlighting operational dysfunction and personnel losses. Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked, regaining territory and executing deep strikes into Russian infrastructure. Russian combat losses reached approximately 1.29 million personnel, while drone strikes targeted critical Russian facilities. The ongoing conflict reflects a stalemate, with neither side achieving decisive victory.

Dmitri VolkovThu Mar 26 2026Loading...

The UK government has authorized its armed forces and law enforcement to intercept vessels attempting to navigate through its waters that are under UK sanctions. This decision, made by Prime Minister Starmer, aims to counter Russian operations in the Baltic Sea, where multiple nations are already acting against suspected Russian 'shadow fleet' vessels. The UK will assess each target vessel before interception.

Russian forces conducted strikes on Ukrainian drone assembly workshops and energy facilities while controlling a settlement in Donetsk. Ukrainian forces repelled 191 attacks and shot down 2459 Russian drones, also targeting a significant Russian position with missile and artillery fire. Additionally, Ukraine executed a long-range strike on Russian oil infrastructure along the Baltic coast.

The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) is undergoing repairs due to significant mechanical failures and operational strain after prolonged deployments. The carrier's condition has raised concerns about the U.S. Navy's readiness, particularly in the Middle East, where its withdrawal has reduced carrier presence. Crew fatigue and a recent fire incident have further complicated operational capabilities, indicating deeper logistical challenges within the Navy.

In February 2026, the U.S. deployed at least 12 F-22 Raptors and dozens of F-35 Lightning IIs to the Middle East for operations over Iran. The F-35s conducted strike missions, while the F-22s secured airspace to ensure operational dominance. This deployment is part of a broader strategy to leverage advanced airpower capabilities in the region.

The U.S. Navy is prepared to deploy Triton Autonomous Underwater and Surface Vehicles (AUSVs) for mine counter-measures in the Strait of Hormuz. Triton, equipped with advanced detection and neutralization capabilities, has been evaluated since 2023 and is ready for immediate action. This deployment aims to enhance maritime security and ensure safe passage in a region threatened by Iranian activities.

Russian forces launched nearly 1,000 drones and missiles against Ukrainian targets from March 23 to 24, 2026, marking the largest coordinated strike of the war. The strikes impacted at least 15 oblasts, including Lviv and Kharkiv, targeting civilian infrastructure and military sites. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted around 100 missiles, but the scale of the assault overwhelmed defenses, resulting in civilian casualties and significant damage.

Dmitri VolkovWed Mar 25 2026Loading...

Latvian Air Force detected a foreign drone entering its airspace from Russia, which crashed in Krāslava and detonated on March 25. Estonian authorities reported a similar incident where a drone struck a power plant chimney. Both incidents are under investigation, with no injuries reported. The timing coincides with Ukrainian drone strikes against targets in Russia.

Ukrainian strike drones targeted and damaged the Project 23550 patrol icebreaker 'Purga' at the Vyborg Shipyard in the Leningrad region. The attack resulted in visible damage to the vessel, which is under construction for Russia's Federal Security Service Border Guard. This strike may delay the ship's operational readiness and disrupt production schedules for Russian military assets.

Russian forces launched a comprehensive spring offensive across eastern Ukraine from March 17 to March 23, 2026, marking a shift to mechanized warfare. They conducted 619 offensive operations, focusing on the strategic town of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces engaged in 134 combat encounters, reporting significant Russian losses. The offensive is supported by extensive airstrikes and drone attacks, indicating a high operational tempo.

Dmitri VolkovWed Mar 25 2026Loading...