Analysis & Reports

European countries have significantly increased arms imports, accounting for 33% of global imports from 2021 to 2025, driven by military aid to Ukraine and a lack of confidence in U.S. security. The volume of arms imports has tripled compared to 2016-2020, with 48% sourced from the U.S. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern nations have seen a 13% decrease in arms imports during the same period.

The U.S. Navy is evaluating the extension of Ohio-class SSGNs' service life due to a projected firepower gap as they prepare for retirement starting in 2026. The Navy recognizes the critical need for long-range precision strike capabilities, particularly with the ongoing conflict in Iran. Each Ohio-class SSGN can carry 154 Tomahawk missiles, and the transition to Virginia-class submarines with enhanced capabilities is underway, but may not be sufficient in time.

Leopard 2 tanks are struggling in Ukraine due to logistical challenges and the rise of drone warfare. Ukrainian forces, receiving these tanks from NATO allies, face operational difficulties as advanced systems require specialized maintenance and support. The proliferation of drones and modern anti-tank weapons has further complicated their deployment, highlighting the need for integrated battlefield support.

On March 4, 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized a significant expansion of the Russian Armed Forces to 2,391,770 personnel, including 1,502,640 military personnel. This expansion reflects Russia's commitment to ongoing military operations in Ukraine and preparation for potential confrontations with NATO. Russian forces have redeployed units to counter Ukrainian advances, while also conducting extensive missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, resulting in civilian casualties.

Dmitri VolkovSun Mar 08 2026Loading...

The Ukrainian Air Force is conducting airstrikes against Russian forces using Mirage 2000-5 fighters, which are equipped with AASM Hammer bombs. These operations began after France donated the aircraft, with at least four expected to be operational by the end of 2026. The fighters have transitioned from air defense roles to active ground-attack missions, demonstrating their effectiveness in the ongoing conflict.

Iran's drone attacks have compelled the U.S. and its allies to deploy costly interceptors, revealing a drone consumption trap. This situation mirrors Ukraine's experience with Russian drones, where low-cost systems challenge expensive defense measures. The U.S. is adapting its military strategy to address these threats, emphasizing the need for affordable defense solutions against drone warfare.

The U.S. Navy's Los Angeles-class submarines, numbering 24 active units, continue to play a vital role in providing a defensive perimeter for Carrier Strike Groups in 2026. Equipped with advanced systems like the Mk 1 Combat Control System and capable of launching Tomahawk Block III missiles, these submarines are crucial for undersea warfare. Despite concerns over a future submarine deficit, the Los Angeles-class remains a key component of the Navy's attack fleet.

Ukrainian Air Force has been utilizing approximately 4-6 Mirage 2000-5 aircraft since February 2025 to intercept Russian cruise missiles and conduct airstrikes against logistics targets. The aircraft have achieved high interception rates, reportedly up to 98%, despite facing limitations due to the small fleet size and threats from Russian air patrols. France continues to support Ukraine with additional aircraft and munitions deliveries.

Dassault Aviation's CEO Eric Trappier announced that the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) project is at risk due to unresolved disagreements with Airbus, stating the project could be 'dead' without resolution. He expressed willingness to seek alternative partners if necessary. French President Emmanuel Macron supported the idea of a unified European fighter model, highlighting the importance of collaboration in defense projects. Despite the challenges, Dassault's financial performance remains strong, with a significant increase in company value this year.

Dassault Aviation accused Airbus of refusing to collaborate on the future combat air system project, jeopardizing its success. The dispute has persisted for years, with Airbus proposing a two-aircraft solution that Dassault opposes. French President Macron and former Chancellor Merkel initiated the project in 2017, but negotiations for its next phase are stalled due to unresolved leadership and authority issues. Meanwhile, Dassault plans to negotiate a contract for 114 Rafale jets with India this year.

Germany is set to increase its defense budget to €108.2 billion by 2026, surpassing the combined military spending of Britain and France. This shift is reshaping European security dynamics amid concerns over Russian aggression. The German government has reformed borrowing limits to facilitate sustained military investment, while Rheinmetall expands its defense capabilities across Europe. NATO's new spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035 further highlights the changing landscape of European defense.

Alexandra ReevesWed Mar 04 2026Loading...

Rheinmetall signed a contract in Zagreb to acquire a 51% stake in Croatian uncrewed systems provider DOK-ING. This acquisition, subject to regulatory approval, aims to enhance Rheinmetall's capabilities in uncrewed military applications and establish a foothold in Croatia. DOK-ING will maintain its operations and management team, focusing on developing uncrewed systems for combat support and mine clearance.

EURENCO and ZVS holding signed a joint memorandum on 4 March 2026 to establish a manufacturing facility for Modular Artillery Charge Systems (MACS) in Strážske, eastern Slovakia. The project, with an investment of around EUR 300 million, aims to create hundreds of jobs and enhance the European defense industry. Production is expected to start in 2028, contributing significantly to artillery ammunition supply chains.

Ukrainian forces captured more territory in February 2026, reversing previous Russian gains. Russia is adapting its military strategy, shifting targeting from energy to logistics and water infrastructure. The development of a modernized Shahed-136 drone enhances Russia's long-range strike capabilities. European security architecture is evolving to address these multifaceted threats, with Ukraine integrating into European defense systems.

Dmitri VolkovWed Mar 04 2026Loading...

Airbus Helicopters was selected by the European Defence Agency on 04 March 2026 to develop a hybrid uncrewed aircraft under the Multi Mission Unmanned Aircraft System (M2UAS) project. The initiative, with a budget of approximately €1.1 million, aims to enhance the capabilities of the Capa-X drone for various military missions. The first phase will analyze current and future military needs and technological challenges to optimize the drone's versatility and efficiency.

Poland is advancing plans to purchase Airbus A330 MRTT aircraft for its Air Force, potentially funded by EU loans. The government has allocated PLN 200.1 billion for defense in 2025, with Prime Minister Tusk advocating for the SAFE loan program to enhance military capabilities. However, opposition figures warn that reliance on EU funding may compromise ties with US defense manufacturers, emphasizing the need for interoperability with NATO.

The U.S. Air Force awarded a $1.9 billion contract to Lockheed Martin for the C-130J Maintenance and Training System. This contract includes production and support for training systems used by crews and maintenance personnel operating the C-130J Super Hercules. Work will occur at various U.S. and international locations, with the contract expected to last until February 28, 2039.

French President Macron announced on March 2, 2023, plans to expand France's nuclear arsenal and allow temporary deployment of nuclear-capable aircraft to allies. This strategy aims to enhance European independence amid concerns over U.S. commitments to NATO. France will also conduct joint nuclear exercises with Germany and other European nations, marking a significant shift in its nuclear policy since 1992.

The Javelin missile system is experiencing logistical and economic challenges in Ukraine, leading to a reliance on cheaper FPV drones for anti-tank operations. Despite its high reliability, the Javelin's production cannot meet Ukraine's needs, prompting a shift in tactics. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to use Javelins, but their prominence has diminished due to the effectiveness of drone technology.

The U.S. and Israel are conducting military actions against Iran, which may hinder Ukraine's access to critical weapons like Patriot missiles. Ukrainian President Zelensky has raised concerns about the impact of these actions on military support for Ukraine, suggesting a potential reduction in missile supplies. He also proposed sending drone experts to assist Middle Eastern nations in countering Iranian drone threats. European officials are worried about the depletion of U.S. missile stocks affecting Ukraine's defense capabilities.