Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy asserted that Russia has not succeeded in breaking the resolve of Ukrainians four years after the invasion began. He emphasized that Ukraine has defended its independence despite significant casualties and territorial losses. The U.N. General Assembly called for an immediate ceasefire, while diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict remain stalled. Zelenskyy also highlighted the growing threat of Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy asserted that Russia has not succeeded in breaking the resolve of Ukrainians after four years of conflict. He emphasized that Ukraine has defended its independence despite significant territorial losses, with Russia currently controlling nearly 20% of the country. The U.N. has called for an immediate ceasefire, while Zelenskyy anticipates new U.S.-brokered talks with Russia. The ongoing war has resulted in tens of thousands of casualties and widespread hardship for civilians.

Russia's defense spending growth slowed to 3% in 2025, the lowest since its invasion of Ukraine, amid economic struggles and Western sanctions. The defense budget reached $186 billion in 2024, with 7.3% of GDP allocated to defense. Ukraine increased its defense spending to 21% of GDP, reflecting the ongoing conflict.

Russia is laying the groundwork for a potential limited reserve mobilization amid ongoing manpower challenges. Ukrainian forces are advancing in southern Ukraine, particularly near Kupyansk and Oleksandrivka, while Russian forces maintain pressure in the Donbas region. Russia has intensified strikes against Ukrainian military targets and is enhancing its electronic warfare capabilities. The situation remains fluid as both sides prepare for renewed operations as winter transitions to spring.

Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 24 2026Loading...

India is solidifying its role as a strategic swing power in the Indo-Pacific following a defense agreement with the US. China is executing a cyber offensive against the Philippines, testing US responses to non-traditional aggression. The US is revolutionizing its defense industrial base with investments in 3D printing and AI to enhance military logistics and readiness.

Marcus ChenSun Feb 22 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces recaptured 86 square kilometers and 18 settlements in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from February 20-22, 2026, disrupting Russian offensive operations. Russian claims of territorial gains were found to be inflated, with independent assessments verifying only 572 square kilometers seized. The denial of Starlink access has significantly impacted Russian command and control capabilities, leading to operational challenges. Russian forces continue to conduct strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, despite facing increasing manpower pressures and recruitment issues.

Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 22 2026Loading...

North Korea is actively supporting Russia in the Ukraine conflict, suffering 6,000 casualties while supplying artillery shells and missiles. In exchange, Russia may provide North Korea with nuclear submarine expertise, marking a significant military collaboration between the two nations. This relationship reflects a growing military alliance as both countries seek to enhance their capabilities amid ongoing tensions.

The Russian Navy will retire the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier by late 2025 due to ongoing mechanical failures and a lack of modernization funds. This decision leaves Russia as the only permanent UN Security Council member without an active carrier. Concurrently, efforts are underway to salvage the sunken PD-50 drydock, which is estimated to cost around $2.6 million USD.

The U.S. is preparing to resume nuclear testing and modernize its nuclear arsenal following the expiration of the New START Treaty in February 2026. This shift, advocated by political figures like Sen. Tom Cotton, could lead to a dangerous arms race involving Russia and China. The U.S. has also withdrawn from several key arms control agreements, further escalating tensions in global nuclear strategy.

In January 2026, Russian losses on the battlefield exceeded recruitment by 9000 personnel, marking a significant failure of the voluntary recruitment system. This situation has prompted the Russian government to prepare legislative measures for potential forced conscription, as the current model of 'war without mobilization' has reached its limits. The inability to replace personnel threatens the ongoing military operations in Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 19 2026Loading...

Russia faces significant economic challenges as high inflation and government spending threaten its defense industrial sector. The Central Bank's strict fiscal measures have resulted in record-high interest rates, jeopardizing the production of military weaponry. Experts warn that the current economic strategy may lead to irreparable damage to Russia's military capabilities.

U.S.-brokered talks in Geneva between Russian and Ukrainian envoys ended without a breakthrough, with both sides acknowledging the difficulty of negotiations. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy accused Russia of prolonging discussions while continuing military actions. Despite some constructive military discussions, significant political differences remain, particularly regarding territorial issues in eastern Ukraine. A new round of talks is anticipated, with European leaders participating in the process.

The B-52H Stratofortress, Tu-95MS Bear, and B-2 Spirit are actively utilized in military operations as of 2026, with the B-52H serving as a versatile platform for standoff strikes. The Tu-95MS has been employed in Russia's strategic air campaign against Ukraine, launching Kh-101 missiles from a distance. The B-2 Spirit remains the only aircraft capable of penetrating advanced air defenses, underscoring its critical role in nuclear deterrence.

Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 18 2026Loading...

The F-22 Raptor, F-35 Lightning II, J-20 Mighty Dragon, and Su-57 Felon represent the forefront of fifth-generation fighter technology. The F-22 excels in stealth and air superiority, while the F-35 emphasizes networked capabilities. The J-20 boasts impressive range and production rates, and the Su-57, despite its agility, faces production challenges. Each aircraft's design reflects different strategic priorities and operational doctrines, shaping future air combat dynamics.

Marcus ChenWed Feb 18 2026Loading...

China is reportedly expanding its nuclear arsenal, with projections indicating a rise to 1000 warheads by 2030. A 2.75 magnitude earthquake detected near Lop Nur in 2020 has raised suspicions of a nuclear test, although evidence remains inconclusive. The US has expressed concerns over China's nuclear capabilities and testing practices, particularly regarding the use of decoupling technology to obscure test yields.

Li MinghuiWed Feb 18 2026Loading...

The Russian Air Force's MiG-35 fighter jet program has faced significant challenges, with under ten units produced and limited support from the military. Originally ordered in 2017, the aircraft is scheduled for delivery in 2027 but struggles to compete in the export market against established Western fighters. The MiG-35's lack of stealth capabilities and ongoing development issues hinder its operational effectiveness in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Russia is advancing with a depleted 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Zybyne, Kharkiv Oblast, as of February 2026. The Kremlin announced that Vladimir Medinsky will lead negotiations in Geneva starting February 17, aiming for terms that suggest the capitulation of Ukraine. Despite capturing territory, the Russian army operates at only 40% personnel strength, indicating systemic exhaustion. Concurrently, Ukraine has reported extensive damage to its energy infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 17 2026Loading...

Putin is contemplating declaring victory in the Ukraine war, holding territories in Crimea, Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. However, he faces significant political constraints that may prevent this, leading to increased elite resistance and the potential for a coup. As the war continues, the stability of his regime is increasingly in question.

TANTK Beriev reported a net loss exceeding 5 billion rubles in 2025, reflecting a significant decline in revenue and rising debt. The company, a key player in Russia's military aviation sector, has faced operational disruptions due to multiple Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, impacting its production capabilities. Its liabilities to creditors have increased, indicating financial strain.

On February 12, 2026, Russia formalized its military presence in the Sahel by signing a strategic agreement with Burkina Faso, focusing on security and counter-terrorism. This agreement marks a transition from private military contractor involvement to state-level cooperation, with Russian forces now operating under a formal diplomatic framework. The presence of Russian military personnel is increasing in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, as Moscow seeks to enhance its influence in the region amid a withdrawal of Western forces.

Marie DuboisSat Feb 14 2026Loading...