Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian forces achieved significant territorial gains in February 2026, liberating around 200 square kilometers and disrupting Russian military preparations. Russia's casualty rate exceeded its recruitment rate for the first time, with approximately 35,000 casualties reported in December 2025. The ongoing conflict has strained Russia's military and economy, as evidenced by the Kremlin's increased defense spending and deteriorating recruitment quality.

Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 26 2026Loading...

Russia's defense spending growth slowed to 3% in 2025, the lowest since its invasion of Ukraine, amid economic struggles and Western sanctions. The defense budget reached $186 billion in 2024, with 7.3% of GDP allocated to defense. Ukraine increased its defense spending to 21% of GDP, reflecting the ongoing conflict.

Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian transportation and energy infrastructure on April 23, 2023, in response to Ukrainian drone attacks. On April 22, Ukrainian drones targeted an oil station in Tatarstan, while strikes in Voronezh and Belgorod Oblasts caused power outages. President Zelensky stated that Ukraine would not concede territory for a ceasefire, and President Macron urged for new EU sanctions against Russia. Putin announced plans to enhance military capabilities.

Ukrainian forces recaptured approximately 400 square kilometers of territory in a counteroffensive, while Russian forces conducted large-scale attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Russian casualties exceeded 186,000, with significant losses reported in the Novopavlivka sector. The conflict remains characterized by operational stalemate, with both sides sustaining heavy casualties and ongoing military operations across multiple fronts.

Dmitri VolkovMon Feb 23 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces have transitioned to a counteroffensive in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, liberating 168.9 square kilometers since January 1, 2026. They executed a precision strike on the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in Russia, demonstrating enhanced deep-strike capabilities. Meanwhile, Russian territorial gains have significantly slowed, reflecting attrition and improved Ukrainian defenses. The evolving military landscape indicates a shift in operational dynamics as Ukraine adapts its strategies.

Dmitri VolkovMon Feb 23 2026Loading...

India is solidifying its role as a strategic swing power in the Indo-Pacific following a defense agreement with the US. China is executing a cyber offensive against the Philippines, testing US responses to non-traditional aggression. The US is revolutionizing its defense industrial base with investments in 3D printing and AI to enhance military logistics and readiness.

Marcus ChenSun Feb 22 2026Loading...

Excalibur International signed a contract on February 20, 2026, to supply tens of thousands of artillery and mortar ammunition to a NATO member country in Western Europe. The contract, valued in the low hundreds of millions of euros, was awarded due to urgent needs for replenishing ammunition stocks. The ammunition will be produced by companies within the MSM Group, which is part of the CSG group, highlighting their commitment to supporting NATO's defense capabilities.

Kalashnikov Concern showcased electric military motorcycles and other equipment at a defense exhibition in Russia. The Izh-Enduro motorcycle, designed for cargo delivery and battlefield evacuation, can reach speeds of 100-150 km/h and carry up to 200 kg. These vehicles are intended for use in challenging terrains and are part of efforts to enhance frontline logistics.

Ukraine conducted a long-range strike on the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in Udmurtia, Russia, on February 21, 2023, resulting in explosions and a significant fire. The attack targeted a key facility involved in Russia's ballistic missile production, aiming to disrupt its manufacturing capabilities. Three individuals were hospitalized, and reports suggest the use of long-range strike systems in the operation.

The MiG-35 Fulcrum-F program is struggling, with fewer than 10 aircraft in active service as of February 20, 2026. The Russian Air Force has not prioritized the aircraft, and production is hindered by sanctions and supply chain issues. The MiG-35's international sales have been poor, and its lack of stealth capabilities limits its effectiveness in combat.

The Russian Army's T-14 Armata tank, intended to revolutionize armored warfare, has failed to see combat and has only produced fewer than 20 units due to sanctions and manufacturing issues. Despite its advanced features, the tank has been deemed an expensive failure, with production hampered by systemic problems in Russia's defense industry.

Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on the Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai on February 16-17, 2026, targeting a key facility for Russian military operations. This attack is part of a broader campaign to undermine Russia's energy export infrastructure, aiming to create economic pressure and force a revision of Moscow's demands in negotiations. Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities have evolved, enabling these operations deep within Russian territory.

Li MinghuiThu Feb 19 2026Loading...

Russia faces significant economic challenges as high inflation and government spending threaten its defense industrial sector. The Central Bank's strict fiscal measures have resulted in record-high interest rates, jeopardizing the production of military weaponry. Experts warn that the current economic strategy may lead to irreparable damage to Russia's military capabilities.

TANTK Beriev reported a net loss exceeding 5 billion rubles in 2025, reflecting a significant decline in revenue and rising debt. The company, a key player in Russia's military aviation sector, has faced operational disruptions due to multiple Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, impacting its production capabilities. Its liabilities to creditors have increased, indicating financial strain.

Russia is modernizing Factory No. 9 in Yekaterinburg by acquiring 22 industrial machines from Europe and Taiwan to enhance its artillery production capabilities. This effort aims to increase the output of artillery barrels and components for the Coalition system, addressing a critical shortfall in military production. The reliance on foreign technology underscores vulnerabilities in Russia's defense industry amid ongoing sanctions.

Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 14 2026Loading...

North Korean troops provided artillery support and drone reconnaissance to Russia in Ukraine, transitioning from infantry roles to logistical and industrial support. Approximately 11,000 troops were deployed to Kursk in late 2024, supplying millions of artillery shells and munitions. This support is crucial for sustaining Russia's firepower in an artillery-dominant conflict.

Russian troops criticized the performance of domestically developed satellite communication systems, specifically the Yamal-601 and Yamal-602 satellites, citing issues with setup, reliability, and cost. Reports indicate that these systems fail to match the performance of SpaceX's Starlink, leading to operational challenges in battlefield communications. Concerns were raised about the equipment's size, visibility, and unstable connections during adverse weather conditions.

Russia has expanded production of artillery barrels and tank guns at Plant No. 9 in Yekaterinburg, utilizing European machinery. This modernization addresses the rapid wear of artillery during combat in Ukraine. The facility is set to produce components for the 152 mm 2A88 artillery system and has seen increased production of mortar rounds and artillery shells for 2024 and 2025.

China is supplying critical manufacturing equipment and components to Russia, enabling the production of weapons for its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This includes machine tools and sensitive electronics essential for missile systems and drones. The supply chain has been obscured through third countries, with significant financial investments from China to support Russia's military capabilities.

Kazakhstan is planning to produce the Tulpar light tank as part of its military modernization efforts.