Analysis & Reports

Iranian armed forces announced the implementation of a permanent mechanism to control the Strait of Hormuz on April 13, 2023, in response to threats. This move underscores Iran's commitment to securing this strategic waterway.

An Iranian military spokesperson stated that if Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea are threatened, then any port in these waters will be deemed unsafe. This warning highlights the Iranian military's stance on regional security and potential threats to its maritime interests.

Iranian armed forces declare that enemy vessels have no right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz now or in the future. Other vessels will continue to be allowed passage, provided they adhere to the regulations set by the Iranian armed forces. This statement was made on April 13, 2023, by a spokesperson from the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy confronted two U.S. Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz, demanding they turn back or face engagement. The U.S. destroyers, citing international law, refused to comply, leading to a warning from Iran that they would not provide further notice before opening fire. Following the confrontation, the U.S. ships retreated from the Persian Gulf after being reportedly locked onto by Iranian missiles and drones.

U.S. President Trump is considering limited military strikes against Iran while implementing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 13, 2023. The U.S. Central Command announced that all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports will be affected by this blockade. Trump is hesitant to engage in a full-scale bombing campaign, preferring to avoid a prolonged military conflict.

The United States Navy is set to establish a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, expected to commence soon, possibly Monday morning Eastern Time. This blockade aims to prevent Iran from profiting from tolls charged for maritime traffic and is viewed by Iran as an act of war. The US Navy has significant forces deployed in the Persian Gulf to enforce this blockade.

The U.S. Navy is currently blockading Iranian ports to prevent the import of gasoline and military supplies, impacting Iran's ability to sustain its military operations. This blockade aims to weaken the Iranian regime economically and militarily by denying access to essential resources. The situation reflects ongoing tensions and military strategies in the region.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retains over 60% of its fast attack boats, despite U.S. claims of significant losses. As of April 6, the U.S. Central Command reported that more than 155 Iranian vessels, primarily from the conventional navy, have been sunk. Experts believe that Iran may have concealed hundreds of small attack boats along its coastline, indicating ongoing military capabilities despite substantial losses.

U.S. Central Command announced a blockade on maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, effective April 13 at 10 AM EDT. This blockade will target all vessels regardless of nationality. However, it will not impede ships traveling to non-Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz. Additional information will be communicated to commercial mariners prior to the blockade's implementation.

On April 12, Houthi forces declared their intent to escalate military actions in response to any new attacks by the U.S. and Israel against Iran or the resistance front. They emphasized that such military escalations would negatively impact global supply chains and energy prices.

Iran's parliament is advancing a proposal to prohibit hostile nations' fleets from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Navy is closely monitoring U.S. military activities in the region. This legislative move signifies a new phase in Iran's military policy regarding the strategic waterway.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israel's military operations against Lebanon are ongoing as of April 12, 2023. The Israeli government supports a U.S. decision to pause attacks on Iran, but this ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon. The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that since the resumption of hostilities on March 2, there have been 2055 deaths and 6588 injuries due to Israeli strikes.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy 'locked on' two U.S. Navy destroyers attempting to enter the Persian Gulf on April 12, 2023, forcing their retreat. The U.S. ships, which had employed deceptive tactics, were given a 30-minute window to withdraw before facing potential destruction. This incident follows U.S. President Trump's remarks about the ships' passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

The UK government announced it will not engage in a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing the importance of maintaining freedom of navigation. The UK is collaborating with France and other allies to address the situation. This decision comes amid threats from the U.S. regarding Iran's nuclear program.

Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) collided with UNIFIL vehicles in Bayada, Lebanon, on April 12, 2023, damaging monitoring equipment. The IDF restricted the movement of UN peacekeepers and fired warning shots that struck UNIFIL vehicles. These actions are viewed as a threat to the safety of peacekeepers and a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

President Trump announced the deployment of additional U.S. Navy minesweepers to the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2023, with NATO's assistance. Two U.S. Navy destroyers successfully navigated the strait on April 11, despite Iranian claims of interception. The U.S. Navy is preparing to potentially block the strait due to ongoing tensions with Iran regarding its nuclear program.

Israeli attacks on Lebanon since March 2 have resulted in 2055 deaths and 6588 injuries, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. The casualties include 165 children who have died and 644 who have been injured.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance's negotiations in Islamabad with Iran ended without agreement, reflecting deep-seated resistance from Iran against U.S. demands for nuclear disarmament. The U.S. maintains a military presence in the region, including the USS Gerald R. Ford, while Israel continues its operations against Iranian targets. Historical lessons from Iraq and Libya inform Iran's strategy to resist U.S. pressure, as it perceives disarmament as a path to vulnerability.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any military vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement and will face a strong response. The Strait is currently under their control, allowing non-military vessels under specific regulations.

Iran has initiated the reconstruction of its damaged oil infrastructure in Tehran, aiming to restore 80% of its production capacity within two months. This effort follows recent attacks from the U.S. and Israel that impacted its energy sector.