Analysis & Reports

The U.S. and Iran are engaged in ongoing technical negotiations regarding nuclear issues, despite recent military actions. The U.S. military conducted strikes against Iranian targets in response to attacks on commercial shipping. Iranian forces have also targeted U.S. facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan. A memorandum of understanding was established for negotiations to reach a final agreement within 60 days.

A Hamas delegation discussed the implementation of the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement with Egyptian officials in Cairo on July 9. They confirmed plans to transfer administrative control of Gaza to the Gaza National Administrative Committee and agreed to facilitate peacekeeping efforts. Additionally, a proposal for a pilot area in Rafah was received from a U.S.-initiated 'Peace Committee'.

A Russian T-90M tank was sighted on July 4, 2026, equipped with the Arena-M active protection system, suggesting a potential shift towards deployment. The system aims to enhance tank survivability against drone threats, although its effectiveness against swarming FPV drones is debated. Crews have shown distrust in the tank's protection, leading to instances of abandonment during combat.

On July 1, 2026, the U.S. Air Force conducted a military exercise over the Philippine Sea, featuring an F-15EX fighter flying alongside an Australian-built MQ-28 Ghost Bat drone. This marked the first time the Air Force published an image of a collaborative combat aircraft with a crewed fighter. The MQ-28 has demonstrated combat capabilities, including an autonomous missile launch that resulted in an air-to-air kill.

The U.S. Navy committed to building 16 Orca robot submarines for mine-laying operations in May 2026, despite previous doubts about the program's requirements and budget. The Orca, an 80-ton autonomous submarine, is intended for use in high-risk environments where crewed vessels would be at risk. Meanwhile, a competing underwater drone, Ghost Shark, developed by Anduril, has been delivered ahead of schedule, raising questions about the Navy's procurement strategy.

IAEA teams reported hearing military activity sounds, including drones and gunfire, near Khmelnytskyi, South Ukraine, and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plants from July 2 to 8, 2023. IAEA Director General Grossi highlighted the ongoing risks to nuclear safety amid the conflict, urging military restraint around nuclear facilities. No damage to the plants has been reported.

Multiple explosions occurred in Abbas Port, Iran, on July 9, 2023, following U.S. military airstrikes against Iranian targets. The strikes resulted in casualties among fishermen and military personnel, as confirmed by local sources and U.S. Central Command.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced on July 9, 2023, that Israel will not permit Iran to acquire nuclear weapons and plans to increase its defense budget by 350 billion new shekels over the next decade. This budget will focus on enhancing the air force and developing the domestic military industry. The announcement comes amid escalating military tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with reports of Iranian missile strikes against U.S. positions.

Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces conducted significant strikes on July 6, targeting 47 Russian military assets, including two S-400 launchers in Bryansk and Crimea. The campaign focuses on destroying critical radar systems to blind Russian air defenses, with reports indicating a high rate of attrition against these assets. Despite Russia's ability to produce launchers, the slow replacement of radars poses a challenge for their air defense capabilities.

China's People's Liberation Army Navy conducted live-fire drills and operations around Australia, showcasing its capabilities with over 90 modern destroyers and frigates. The Type 055 cruiser led a task group that operated 5,000 miles from home, demonstrating a sophisticated naval architecture. The fleet's rapid growth and modernization have positioned it as a significant force in the Pacific, with capabilities that challenge Western naval standards.

The demand for HIMARS has surged due to its successful deployment in Ukraine, prompting Lockheed Martin to double production to 96 launchers in 2024. Countries like Poland, Estonia, and Canada have placed significant orders, while HIMARS has also been utilized in operations against Iran. Despite its effectiveness, challenges remain with ammunition supply, impacting operational capabilities.

The Marine Corps established two new units focused on drone warfare at Twentynine Palms, California, and Quantico, Virginia. The Virginia unit will experiment with counter-drone tactics, while the California unit will develop training for Marines deploying to combat. This initiative aims to adapt to the increasing use of drones in modern warfare.

The Northrop P-61 Black Widow, a revolutionary night fighter, excelled in WWII combat, particularly in the Pacific Theater. It was equipped with advanced SCR-720 radar, enabling it to intercept enemy bombers effectively. By the end of the war, the P-61 had downed 127 enemy aircraft and played a crucial role in nighttime operations.

The U.S. Navy conducts rigorous screening and training for candidates aspiring to serve on nuclear-powered attack submarines. This process includes academic, medical, and psychological evaluations to ensure sailors can operate effectively in isolated underwater environments. Training occurs in Groton, Connecticut, where sailors learn critical submarine systems and emergency procedures, ultimately earning the Silver Dolphins insignia upon successful qualification.

On September 9, 2023, the U.S. conducted airstrikes against approximately 90 Iranian military targets, including air defense systems and logistical infrastructure. In response, Iran targeted key U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, threatening to expand its retaliation if further provoked. This escalation follows a fragile ceasefire agreement that has now been jeopardized by renewed hostilities.

The U.S. military conducted strikes against Iranian maritime infrastructure, including Chabahar Port, on July 8-9, 2023. Iran condemned these actions as military aggression, claiming they threaten civilian lives and maritime safety. The strikes were reportedly in response to recent Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the region.

The U.S. Air Force has equipped the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber to carry 16 Long-Range Antiship Missiles (LRASMs) for operations in the Taiwan Strait. This development enhances the bomber's capability for maritime access-denial missions, crucial for countering Chinese naval strategies. The LRASM is designed to strike hostile shipping, potentially altering the balance of power in the region.

Thales, RAF Digital, and NAD have successfully integrated AI capabilities into the Multi-Domain Mission Support System (MD MSS) in the UK, enhancing operational effectiveness. This system, operational since 1986, now includes machine learning for maritime track analysis, improving decision-making for aircrew and planners. The deployment represents a significant milestone in military AI application, supporting various platforms including the F-35B and Typhoon.

The Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw) signed a contract on 9 July 2026 with the High-Energy Laser Naval Demonstrator Working Group (ARGE HEL) for the development of a high-energy laser weapon system for the German Navy. The system, expected to be operational by 2029, aims to enhance defense capabilities against airborne, maritime, and land-based threats, with a focus on utilizing German supply chains.

The Chinese Navy's 83rd Fleet concluded a four-day friendly visit to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, on July 9, and resumed its training mission at sea. During the visit, the fleet conducted joint naval exercises with the Vietnamese Navy and participated in cultural exchanges, including a football match. The fleet has been on a training mission since June 15, navigating through several seas.