Analysis & Reports

The division of Korea is now a permanent feature of the international order, shaped by great-power competition, particularly between the U.S. and China. This geopolitical landscape has made the prospect of reunification unrealistic, as both North and South Korea are influenced by their respective alliances and security interests. The expectation that North Korea would eventually align with the South has been replaced by a structural and geopolitical reality that favors division.

The USS Cincinnati (LCS-20) docked at Ream Naval Base in Cambodia on January 24, 2024, marking the first U.S. visit since Chinese expansions at the facility. The ship was positioned approximately 150 meters from a Chinese warship, highlighting the base's openness to all nations. This visit is part of a broader effort to enhance U.S.-Cambodian relations and counterbalance Chinese influence in the region.

SD Government received T-1 certification from the US Air Force Air Mobility Command for the Roll-on/Roll-off Tactical Removable Airborne Satellite Communications capability for C-130 aircraft on February 2, 2026, in Singapore. This certification enables multiple satellite communication options and enhances operational capabilities for C-130 variants, improving situational awareness for military forces.

BIRD Aerosystems secured a multi-million dollar contract on February 2, 2026, to supply dozens of SPREOS DIRCM systems for a Helicopter Upgrade Program in the Asia Pacific region. The contract involves strategic cooperation with a local defense company for knowledge transfer and production. SPREOS DIRCM systems are designed to protect helicopters from missile threats, enhancing the modernization of national helicopter fleets.

BIRD Aerosystems secured a multi-million dollar contract on February 2, 2026, to supply dozens of SPREOS DIRCM systems for a Helicopter Upgrade Program in the Asia Pacific region. This contract includes strategic cooperation with a local defense company for knowledge transfer and local production. The SPREOS DIRCM system is designed to protect helicopters from missile threats, enhancing their operational capabilities.

ST Engineering conducted a live demonstration at SAFTI City, showcasing advanced military training technologies for the Singapore Armed Forces. The facility, commissioned for training in October 2024, can host up to 1,200 soldiers and features integrated sensors and simulation technologies. The event highlighted Singapore's commitment to modernizing military training for urban operations, emphasizing realism and safety in training exercises.

Rafael Advanced Defense Systems will showcase its integrated air, space, intelligence, and air defense capabilities at the Singapore Airshow 2026. The exhibition will feature advanced systems such as the SPICE Family, IRON DOME, and LITENING-5 targeting pod, highlighting the company's commitment to enhancing military operational effectiveness. This event underscores the growing need for integrated military solutions in complex environments.

The U.S. and Taiwan are establishing a Joint Firepower Cooperation Center to enhance defense capabilities against potential Chinese aggression by 2027. This initiative involves elite Taiwanese troops and U.S. military support, focusing on asymmetric warfare strategies, including air denial tactics. The U.S. will provide military equipment, while Taiwan will contribute specialized personnel to improve coordination and defense readiness against the larger Chinese military.

The U.S. and Taiwan are establishing a Joint Firepower Cooperation Center to enhance asymmetric warfare capabilities in response to potential Chinese aggression by 2027. Taiwan will deploy elite troops, while the U.S. will provide military equipment and personnel support. The initiative focuses on unconventional defense strategies, particularly air denial, to counter China's larger military forces. This collaboration follows ongoing military pressure from China, which has conducted frequent military exercises near Taiwan.

South Korea has begun deploying anti-drone protective nets on K2 Black Panther tanks and K21 infantry fighting vehicles during a January 2026 exercise. This initiative, led by the ROK Army’s 8th Maneuver Division, aims to enhance protection against low-cost aerial threats, reflecting a strategic shift in armored warfare. The nets are designed to trigger premature detonation of drones, indicating a proactive adaptation to lessons learned from recent conflicts.

Taiwan has confirmed the completion of the third batch of 28 M1A2T Abrams tanks in the United States, which are set to be shipped to the island. The Taiwan Army's Sixth Army Corps is preparing for the integration of these tanks into its operational force structure, while the second batch is currently undergoing training. An internal activation ceremony is planned for the second quarter of this year to officially add the new units to combat readiness.

Taiwan reported a significant increase in PLA aircraft sorties around the island, projecting 5709 sorties by 2025, up from 380 in 2020. Military experts suggest this data aims to portray a narrative of pressure from the PLA, while also indicating the growing capabilities of the PLA. The report highlights the PLA's routine military operations in the Taiwan Strait as a legitimate measure to assert sovereignty.

China is fundamentally reassessing its missile requirements for Taiwan contingency operations, potentially increasing estimates significantly. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is expanding its missile arsenal, with projections indicating it will have the world's largest land-based ballistic missile arsenal by 2025. This shift reflects lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and indicates a move towards prolonged attrition warfare scenarios.

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Airbus Defence and Space and ST Engineering signed two Memorandums of Understanding in Singapore on 2 February 2026 to develop advanced satellite capabilities and AI-powered geospatial analytics. The collaboration focuses on multi-static Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) technology to enhance imaging capabilities for defense and disaster response. Both companies aim to leverage their expertise to deliver innovative solutions for customers in Asia-Pacific and beyond.

China is supplying critical manufacturing equipment and components to Russia, enabling the production of weapons for its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This includes machine tools and sensitive electronics essential for missile systems and drones. The supply chain has been obscured through third countries, with significant financial investments from China to support Russia's military capabilities.

The Air Force Aviation Brigade of the Northern Theater Command conducted realistic training exercises recently, focusing on restorative and foundational content. The training aimed to assess personnel's tactical status after intermittent flying and their continuous operational capability, enhancing the unit's readiness for all-time and all-weather missions.

The China Coast Guard has conducted extensive maritime law enforcement operations over the past five years, including 550,000 vessel operations and 6,000 aircraft missions in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea. They have successfully resolved 2,800 smuggling cases and seized over 80 billion yuan in contraband. Additionally, the Coast Guard has rescued more than 7,200 individuals at sea, demonstrating their commitment to maritime security and sovereignty protection.

The U.S. Navy faces a critical decision regarding the USS Nimitz (CVN-68) as it approaches the end of its service life. On April 18, 2025, the carrier arrived in Guam, highlighting its ongoing role in U.S. naval operations. The Navy must choose between a costly life-extension overhaul or retiring the vessel, amid high demands for carrier presence and slower-than-expected Ford-class replacements.

A fourth prototype of the J-36 6th generation fighter was observed in flight on January 30, 2025, at the Chengdu Aerospace Corporation in China. This rapid development indicates significant investment and priority from the People's Liberation Army Air Force. The J-36 program is advancing faster than previous aircraft, with expectations for entry into service by 2030.

The Chinese Air Force August 1st Aerobatic Team completed a verification flight at Changi Airport, Singapore, on February 1, in preparation for the Singapore Airshow scheduled from February 3 to 8. The team, consisting of 6 J-10 fighter jets, performed various aerobatic maneuvers, marking their first appearance in Singapore since 2020.