Analysis & Reports

Masoud Barzani met with Mazloum Abdi in Eastern Syria on February 6, 2023, as the SDF faced significant territorial losses due to clashes with Syrian government forces. An agreement allowed Syrian forces to deploy into areas previously controlled by the SDF, raising questions about the future of U.S. support and the SDF's role in the region. The SDF, a crucial partner in the fight against ISIS, has seen its influence wane amid changing dynamics.

U.S. and Japanese forces conducted joint cold weather exercises in Hokkaido, focusing on fire support and mobility. Turkish forces tested the Free Bird aircraft in extreme cold, while UK forces enhanced Arctic capabilities through operations in Norway. Finland is providing training for NATO allies in cold weather operations, reflecting a broader trend of military readiness in response to geopolitical tensions.

Three U.S. Air National Guard pilots were awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross for their successful defense against Iranian drones and missiles targeting Israel on April 13, 2024, while deployed at Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia. The pilots, flying F-16s, intercepted and destroyed multiple aerial threats, contributing to a high success rate in intercepting Iranian attacks. Their actions were part of a larger operation involving U.S. Central Command.

The U.S. military conducted five airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria from January 27 to February 2, 2025, including a facility containing 50 precision-guided munitions. These operations resulted in the death or capture of over 50 ISIS terrorists. The airstrikes followed a previous attack on U.S. and allied forces near Palmyra.

In June 2025, seven B-2 Spirit bombers from the U.S. Air Force executed Operation Midnight Hammer, conducting a precision strike on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz. This mission marked the first combat use of the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, showcasing the B-2's advanced capabilities after decades of modernization. The operation involved non-stop flights from Missouri and required sophisticated planning and aerial refueling support.

The U.S. military conducted airstrikes against Islamic State members in Syria between January 27 and Monday, destroying a communication site and weapons storage facilities. These operations resulted in the death or capture of over 50 Islamic State members, including a leader connected to a December ambush that killed two U.S. soldiers and one civilian interpreter. U.S. Central Command emphasized the importance of these strikes in preventing an ISIS resurgence in the region.

Hamas denied firing at Israeli forces and condemned the Israeli airstrikes in the Gaza Strip that began at dawn on the 4th, resulting in at least 21 deaths and 38 injuries. The Israeli Defense Forces accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire by firing at their troops, leading to retaliatory strikes across Gaza.

The Israeli military conducted artillery shelling and airstrikes in multiple locations across Gaza early on October 4, resulting in at least 9 Palestinian deaths, including a child. The strikes targeted residential areas, including tents and homes in Gaza City and Khan Younis, with additional attacks reported in the Bureij refugee camp and southern coastal regions.

A vessel illegally entered Iranian territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz on February 3 and was warned by the Iranian regulatory team before leaving. Iranian officials stated that the vessel did not possess the necessary navigation permits. They also refuted claims of a security incident involving a U.S. tanker, which was reportedly escorted by a U.S. warship.

The U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea on February 3, 2023. Following this, U.S. Navy forces escorted a U.S. oil tanker threatened by two Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The situation was de-escalated, and the oil tanker is now safely navigating the waters.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi held a readiness assessment meeting with senior commanders on February 2. The meeting focused on enhancing military readiness amid ongoing regional tensions, particularly lessons learned from the October 7 conflict. The IDF is preparing for potential large-scale raids or sudden warfare, emphasizing the need for high alertness and the capability to conduct operations across multiple fronts.

Iran's submarine fleet, including three Tareq-class and two Fateh-class submarines, is poised for potential deployment in response to U.S. military actions in the Persian Gulf and surrounding areas. Following President Trump's warnings regarding Iran's nuclear program, U.S. naval forces have increased their presence in the region. The Kilo-class submarines, known for their stealth capabilities, could complicate U.S. maritime security efforts.

Israeli Defense Forces are currently in a heightened state of war readiness as stated by Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi. The military is preparing for offensive actions across all conflict theaters while enhancing its defensive posture, particularly in light of lessons learned from the October 7 Hamas attack. The IDF is maintaining high vigilance for potential multi-front warfare.

The Israeli Defense Forces conducted airstrikes on February 2 in Southern Lebanon, targeting multiple Hezbollah weapon storage facilities. One of the destroyed facilities was located in a civilian area, prompting accusations that Hezbollah is using civilian infrastructure for military purposes. The IDF stated that these actions are necessary to prevent Hezbollah's military rebuilding efforts, which pose a direct threat to Israel.

On February 1, 2023, the Israeli Defense Forces conducted an airstrike in Southern Lebanon, killing Ali Khakani, a key commander of Hezbollah's air defense unit. Khakani was involved in planning the reconstruction of Hezbollah's military infrastructure. Additionally, another airstrike on February 2 resulted in the death of another armed individual attempting to rebuild military facilities for Hezbollah.

The USS Delbert D. Black, an Aegis-class destroyer of the U.S. Navy, departed from Eilat, Israel on February 1 after a scheduled visit. This visit underscores the strong maritime partnership between the U.S. and Israel. The destroyer is equipped for various military operations, including air defense and anti-submarine warfare.

Iranian officials denied plans for live-fire exercises by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the Strait of Hormuz on February 1, 2023. They stated that previous reports about such exercises were incorrect. The U.S. Central Command has expressed concerns about Iran's activities in the region, emphasizing the need for safe and professional conduct during any military operations.

The Israeli Defense Forces conducted an airstrike on February 1 in Duweir, southern Lebanon, killing Hezbollah commander Ali Dawoud Amees. Amees was responsible for a division within Hezbollah's engineering department and was accused of rebuilding military infrastructure and planning attacks against Israeli forces.

On February 1, the Deputy Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Vahidi, stated that Iranian armed forces are now better prepared and mobilized than during the '12-day war' with Israel. He emphasized that all enemy movements are under Iran's comprehensive surveillance and dismissed the U.S. aircraft carrier presence as a psychological tactic, urging calm among regional actors.

Iran's Foreign Minister criticized U.S. military actions near Iranian waters, claiming interference in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' upcoming live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz scheduled for February 1-2. The U.S. Central Command warned against unsafe Iranian actions, emphasizing the need for professionalism during the exercises.