Analysis & Reports

Ukraine has intensified its strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, particularly targeting the Tuapse refinery in Krasnodar, from April to May 2023. This campaign aims to disrupt Russian oil revenue amidst rising global prices linked to the Iran war. Ukrainian drone operations have expanded, hitting multiple facilities, while Russian forces continue their own offensive operations against Ukraine.

Norway will acquire 54 Leopard 2A8 NO-variant main battle tanks, with 37 units to be built at a newly-opened facility in Levanger.

Russia and Ukraine accused each other of violating a ceasefire on May 6, with Ukraine's defense minister advisor stating that Russia's actions invalidated the ceasefire. Russia conducted airstrikes using 108 drones and 3 missiles against Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine reported 5 civilian deaths from an attack in Crimea and confirmed 1820 violations of the ceasefire by Russia, escalating tensions further.

Malaysia is seeking further clarifications from Norway regarding the potential cancellation of its Naval Strike Missile order due to supply issues. The Malaysian Defense Minister stated that diplomatic channels will be used to address the situation. This procurement issue could adversely affect Malaysia's Littoral Combat Ship program, which is in need of a primary anti-ship missile.

Roberto Cingolani announced the testing of the Michelangelo Dome air-defense system in Ukraine against drone attacks scheduled for November. He highlighted the addition of 20,000 staff and a significant increase in share price during his leadership at Leonardo. Cingolani warned that deviation from established strategies could harm the company's future success, emphasizing the importance of government involvement in defense firms.

Leonardo reported a 31% increase in new orders in Q1 2026, reaching €9 billion, with the aeronautics division leading profitability. The company highlighted a major contract for 12 M-346 jet trainers for the Austrian Air Force and announced new partnerships, including a joint venture with Baykar for unmanned aerial systems. Additionally, new land drone concepts from Iveco Group's Defense Business are expected to be unveiled soon.

Leonardo reported a 31% increase in new orders in Q1 2026, reaching €9 billion, with the aeronautics division leading profitability. The company highlighted a major contract for 12 M-346 jet trainers for the Austrian Air Force and announced new partnerships, including a joint venture with Baykar for unmanned aerial systems. Cingolani emphasized the need for European alliances to enhance defense capabilities.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier stated that the U.S. troop withdrawal from Germany does not currently threaten strategic bases. He noted that around 30,000 to 37,000 American soldiers remain in Germany. The Pentagon confirmed a planned withdrawal of approximately 5,000 troops over the next year, prompting calls for increased European defense efforts. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson also addressed security concerns in the Baltic Sea.

NATO Allied Air Command completed Exercise Eastern Phoenix 26 at Capu Midia Training Range in Romania on May 5, 2026, involving approximately 215 systems for counter-drone operations. This exercise marks a significant advancement in NATO's defense capabilities against evolving threats. Concurrently, Germany approved a defense budget of 108.2 billion euros, and France announced an increase in its nuclear stockpile, indicating a broader transformation in European defense strategies.

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Kongsberg Maritime secured a contract to supply its Promas propulsion system for four ships in the U.S. Coast Guard's Offshore Patrol Cutter program on May 6, 2026. This program aims to enhance maritime capabilities with up to 25 new vessels, replacing older cutters. The new ships will feature advanced propulsion technology to improve efficiency and operational range.

NATO member states conducted large-scale military exercises across Europe in 2025-2026, with over 3,500 soldiers participating in Poland. Defense spending increased significantly, with NATO allies committing to 5% of GDP by 2035. Germany's defense budget reached 108 billion euros, while Poland aims for 5% of GDP in defense spending. The EU also allocated 150 billion euros for joint procurement and industrial scaling efforts.

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RENK Group AG reported a record order intake of approximately $657 million in the first quarter of 2026, driven by strong demand for military vehicle components. The Vehicle Mobility Solutions segment contributed significantly, with a 20.5% increase in orders. Notably, RENK secured a $177 million contract for a NATO main battle tank, reinforcing its position in the defense sector. The company also announced advancements in unmanned systems for military applications, indicating a strategic shift in European defense spending.

EagleNXT sold three eBee VISION unmanned aerial systems to the U.S. Army's 7th Army Training Command on May 5, 2026, increasing the Army's total to 34 systems. These drones will enhance training at the Joint Multinational Readiness Center in Hohenfels, Germany, supporting U.S. and allied forces. The eBee VISION is notable for its portability, endurance, and capability to operate in contested environments, making it a valuable asset for ISR operations.

On May 3, 2026, Ukraine executed a significant drone offensive against Russian targets, including oil infrastructure in Primorsk. In response, Russia launched a counter-offensive with drones and missiles. The conflict has intensified, with both sides engaging in unprecedented aerial exchanges, while Ukraine's strikes aim to degrade Russia's economic capacity. Diplomatic tensions escalated with Russia proposing a ceasefire, which Ukraine dismissed, leading to further military actions.

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Pakistan commissioned its first Chinese submarine, Hangor, in Sanya, China, on April 30, 2023. This submarine is part of a larger deal for eight submarines aimed at enhancing Pakistan's naval capabilities. The commissioning ceremony was attended by Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and navy chief Naveed Ashraf, highlighting the deepening defense cooperation between Pakistan and China.

Kongsberg Maritime secured a contract to supply its Promas propulsion system for four U.S. Coast Guard OPC Heritage Class vessels on 6 May 2026. This contract includes additional equipment such as steering gear and rudders, enhancing the vessels' operational capabilities. The new ships will replace medium endurance cutters and are designed for long-range patrols.

NATO forces completed the Eastern Phoenix 26 counter-drone exercise in Romania, integrating over 215 systems. Concurrently, U.S. and UK troops participated in Project FlyTrap 5.0 in Lithuania, testing counter-UAS capabilities. The EU's Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030 is now in its first implementation year, while the UK-EU Security and Defence Partnership is advancing operational cooperation.

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On May 6, Russian forces conducted an airstrike using two drones on a kindergarten in Sumy, Ukraine. Rescue operations are currently in progress as some individuals are reported trapped under the debris. No response has been received from the Russian side regarding the incident.

ARX Robotics announced in May 2026 that it is expanding its fleet in Ukraine to five times its initial size by supplying several hundred additional GEREON uncrewed ground vehicles. This expansion supports Ukraine's plan to procure 25,000 new ground robots in the first half of 2026, focusing on logistics and operational support for its Defense Forces. The GEREON vehicles are designed for various missions, including casualty evacuation and resupply, enhancing the operational capabilities of Ukrainian forces.

Russia launched a sustained overnight attack with drones and glide bombs against Ukraine, violating a ceasefire initiated at midnight on May 6, 2023. The assault involved 3 missiles and 108 drones targeting locations such as Pavlohrad, Kharkiv, and Sumy. Ukrainian officials condemned the attack as a rejection of peace, highlighting the simultaneous call for a ceasefire by Russia as insincere. Reports indicate ongoing strikes, including one on a kindergarten in Sumy.