Analysis & Reports

The report highlights the increased strategic friction in Iran following the transition of power to Mojtaba Khamenei. It identifies the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij paramilitary as critical centers of gravity in the ongoing conflict. The analysis emphasizes the challenges posed by modern warfare tactics, including the use of drones and ballistic missiles, which hinder traditional military objectives of enemy overthrow.

Operation Epic Fury has cost approximately $11.3 billion in its first six days, with U.S. forces striking around 6,000 targets in Iran. Seven American service members were killed, and about 140 were wounded, with eight in serious condition. Iran has vowed to retaliate against U.S. and Israeli forces following the airstrikes.

U.S. forces engaged in Operation Epic Fury have struck approximately 6,000 targets in Iran, resulting in seven American service members killed and around 140 wounded. The operation has cost an estimated $11.3 billion in its first six days. Iran's new supreme leader has vowed retaliation, while Congressional Democrats are introducing resolutions to limit U.S. military involvement without formal authorization.

In 2026, NATO and the EU are undergoing significant transformations in response to transatlantic tensions, with the EU launching the Readiness 2030 initiative to boost defense spending. The Trump administration's policies have intensified debates on European strategic autonomy, leading to Spain's prohibition of U.S. strikes on Iran. The EU is also expanding defense partnerships with countries like Ghana, indicating a shift towards operational independence from American military support.

Alexandra ReevesThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

The U.S. Air Force is conducting airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, specifically targeting the Taleghan 2 site near Tehran, using 12 B-1B Lancers and 3 B-52 Stratofortresses. This operation, involving GBU-31 JDAMs with BLU-109 warheads, aims to degrade Iran's nuclear capabilities and loitering munition networks. The strikes are part of a broader strategy to prevent Iran from reinforcing its buried nuclear assets.

NATO activated a ballistic missile defense posture on March 5, 2026, following an Iranian missile threat to Turkey. Concurrently, NATO began the Cold Response military exercises in Norway on March 9, emphasizing civilian preparedness. European nations are diversifying arms procurement, reducing reliance on U.S. military hardware, with Germany projected to significantly increase defense spending by 2029. These developments reflect a strategic shift in European defense in response to ongoing threats.

Alexandra ReevesThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

The U.S. military has spent over $11 billion in the first week of operations against Iran, with ongoing airstrikes and naval engagements. Senator Chris Murphy criticized the incoherence of U.S. war plans, particularly regarding the lack of a strategy for the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian retaliatory strikes have damaged at least 11 U.S. military bases in the region, raising concerns about the conflict's escalation and its impact on international shipping.

The United States unveiled a new defense strategy focusing on deterring China in the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing the first island chain. This strategy demands greater defense contributions from allies, particularly Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, while China continues its military modernization. The U.S. aims to maintain military superiority through forward-deployed forces and allied contributions, but faces challenges in ensuring commitment and reliability among regional partners.

Marcus ChenThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

Malian, Burkinabè, and Nigerien forces conducted coordinated military operations from February 21 to March 9, 2026, eliminating over 100 terrorists. The Malian Armed Forces executed a surgical airstrike in Yanfolila, while the Burkinabè army launched a counter-offensive in Northern Sahel. Nigerien forces successfully repelled an attack on the Tahua airport. These actions reflect an intensified commitment to counter-terrorism amid evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Sahel.

Marie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

Iran has begun mining the Strait of Hormuz, utilizing rocket-deployed mines and small boats, with estimates of 2,000 to 6,000 mines available. The Iranian Navy and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are actively involved in this operation, which poses a significant threat to maritime traffic. U.S. intelligence confirms the ongoing mining activities as part of Operation Epic Fury, while U.S. forces have targeted Iranian naval assets in response.

U.S. Navy SEAL Team Six is preparing for a potential raid on Kharg Island, Iran's key oil export terminal, to disrupt 90% of the country's oil exports. This operation, which may involve HALO jumps and SEAL Delivery Vehicles, poses significant risks of U.S. casualties and could impact global oil prices. The mission aims to leverage control over Iran's energy lifeline amid ongoing military operations in the region.

Canada is transitioning from its aging Victoria-class submarines to a new fleet of 12 submarines, evaluating options from Germany's TKMS Type 212CD and South Korea's Hanwha KSS-III. The Canadian government plans to award a contract by the end of the year, with the first deliveries expected in the 2030s. This procurement aims to enhance Canada's naval capabilities, particularly in the Arctic region.

The USS George H.W. Bush is set to deploy to the eastern Mediterranean, joining the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln in operations against Iranian military infrastructure. This deployment enhances U.S. naval capabilities in the region, allowing for hundreds of strike sorties daily and increasing deterrence against Iranian actions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz.

China is deterred from invading Taiwan due to U.S. military operations in Iran and the enhanced capabilities of Japan and Australia. The U.S. Navy's USS Abraham Lincoln has been redeployed to Iran, impacting its presence in the Indo-Pacific. Japan's acquisition of over 150 F-35 fighters contributes to regional deterrence. Upcoming political summits and arms deals will further influence China's strategic calculations regarding Taiwan.

Iran launched a systematic campaign of ballistic missile and drone strikes against Gulf Cooperation Council states in March 2026, with the UAE intercepting 165 ballistic missiles and 541 drones. The strikes targeted civilian infrastructure in Dubai and Bahrain, indicating a shift in Iranian strategy. Saudi Arabia also reported intercepting multiple Iranian missiles and drones. The US military adjusted its presence in the region amid the escalating conflict.

Ahmed Al-RashidThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

NATO commenced its Cold Response 2026 exercise in the Norwegian Arctic on March 9, emphasizing civilian preparedness and total defense concepts. On the same day, NATO missile defense systems intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile that entered Turkish airspace. European defense strategy is diversifying, with increased arms imports from South Korea and Israel, while the UK is stepping up its leadership role in European security.

Alexandra ReevesThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

HAVELSAN broke ground on a new flight simulator production and integration facility in Ankara on March 12, 2026. The facility will enable the production of over 30 simulators annually and support the development of up to 16 simulators simultaneously. This expansion positions HAVELSAN as the largest full flight simulator production center in Europe and the Middle East, enhancing Türkiye's role in the aviation training industry.

The Turkish Ministry of Defense announced the deployment of a Patriot air defense system in Malatya on March 11, 2026, to enhance air defense capabilities against Iranian missile and drone attacks. This system is being prepared for operational readiness to protect Turkish airspace, complementing an existing Patriot system at İncirlik Air Base. The deployment is part of NATO's enhanced defense measures in the region.

France deployed 10 warships, including the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, to the Eastern Mediterranean in March 2023 to enhance regional security and protect its interests. This unprecedented naval operation aims to position France as a credible security partner amid shifting alliances in the Middle East following Iranian missile strikes. The deployment includes 8 frigates and 2 helicopter carriers, demonstrating France's military capability and commitment to its defense agreements in the region.

Iranian forces launched hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones targeting Gulf Cooperation Council states from late February 2026. Between March 1 and March 4, Qatar intercepted 125 of 145 threats, while Bahrain neutralized 61 missiles and 34 drones. The UAE reported over 800 threats detected and intercepted, although some caused localized damage. The conflict has prompted Gulf states to enhance their air defense capabilities and focus on defense industrial localization.

Ahmed Al-RashidThu Mar 12 2026Loading...