Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that a new round of negotiations involving Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia is scheduled for February 1 in Abu Dhabi. This follows the conclusion of the first round of talks on January 24, which addressed security issues among the three nations. U.S. Special Envoy Whitaker confirmed the plans via social media.

On October 26, 2023, the Israel Defense Forces confirmed the recovery of the body of Lian Gvili, an Israeli hostage killed in combat on October 7, 2023. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad claimed they had provided the location of the body three weeks prior, accusing Israel of delaying the search. With this recovery, all hostages or bodies held in Gaza have been returned to Israel.

Experts from the Center for European Policy Analysis emphasized the critical role of unmanned systems in maintaining NATO's strategic dominance in the Arctic during a briefing on January 22. They highlighted increasing incursions by Russian and Chinese vessels as a significant threat, with a focus on the need for unmanned underwater vehicles to protect against potential sabotage of underwater cables. The discussion underscored the challenges posed by harsh weather conditions in the region.

NATO experts highlighted the critical role of unmanned systems in maintaining strategic dominance in the Arctic during a briefing on January 22. They noted increasing incursions by Russian and Chinese vessels, emphasizing the need for unmanned vehicles to address maritime threats. The discussion included concerns over sabotage of underwater cables and the potential for conflict in the region, underscoring the importance of persistent surveillance capabilities.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that the Iranian armed forces will respond forcefully to any infringement, emphasizing that Iran does not welcome war but will defend itself if necessary. He accused the U.S. of undermining negotiations and stated that Iran has taken all feasible diplomatic measures to avoid conflict. If war is imposed, Iran will have no choice but to resist.

Hezbollah leader Naeem Qassem stated that the group will not remain neutral in the face of any military actions against Iran, warning that such actions could lead to a broader regional conflict. He reaffirmed Hezbollah's support for the Iran-led resistance against Israel and highlighted the potential consequences of threats against Iran's leadership on regional stability.

The United Arab Emirates reaffirmed that it will not permit its territory, airspace, or waters to be used for any military actions against Iran. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized the importance of dialogue, de-escalation, and adherence to international law in addressing regional issues. This statement was made on January 26.

Abu Dhabi Ship Building (ADSB) is increasing production of offshore vessels and corvettes, with the first Falaj-3 vessel expected to be delivered to Kuwait by mid-2027. The company is also developing unmanned surface vessels and integrating new technologies, while 70% of its order book is for export to markets including Angola and Kuwait. The first BR71 MKII corvette will be launched on March 4 in Cherbourg, France.

U.S. President Trump has threatened military action regarding Greenland, while Russia continues to gain ground in Ukraine. China views Taiwan as a potential target for military action, and Iran remains vulnerable yet capable of retaliation. Tensions between India and Pakistan persist following recent military skirmishes, indicating a precarious geopolitical landscape leading into 2026.

President Trump announced the 'Super Raptor' upgrade for the F-22 Raptor during a visit to Doha, Qatar. This upgrade aims to extend the aircraft's service life to 15,000 hours and includes advanced capabilities such as next-generation infrared search-and-track systems and the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile. Additionally, a new 'F-55' concept was introduced as an upgrade to the F-35.

Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in January 2026, aiming to disrupt shipping and spike global oil prices. While lacking the conventional naval strength for a sustained closure, Iran possesses asymmetric capabilities such as naval mines and anti-ship missiles. This threat serves as a coercive measure against perceived existential threats, likely prompting a significant U.S. military response and international coalition efforts to ensure maritime security.

Elbit Systems was awarded a $228 million contract by General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems to supply the Iron Fist Active Protection System for U.S. Army Bradley IFV upgrades. The contract, announced on January 26, 2026, will be executed over three years and aims to enhance the survivability of armored platforms against modern battlefield threats. Iron Fist APS has been selected by various military forces, including the Israel Defense Forces and NATO armies.

Turkey and Qatar signed multiple defense agreements during the 2026 Doha International Maritime Defense Exhibition, including a $1 billion deal for two Istanbul-class frigates. STM will assist in the local production of tactical drones in Qatar. The agreements signify a shift towards joint ventures and local production, with Qatar designating Turkey as a long-term partner in its defense modernization efforts.

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio discussed with Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani the transfer and detention of ISIS members in secure facilities in Iraq following recent instability in northeastern Syria. This conversation took place on January 25.

Israeli Defense Forces conducted a search operation in the Northern Gaza Strip on January 25 to recover the last body of an Israeli hostage. The operation follows information provided by Hamas regarding the location of the body. The IDF estimates the search will take several days. Additionally, two Palestinians were reported killed by Israeli forces in separate incidents during the same timeframe.

The Chinese 24th Peacekeeping Force successfully passed a UN equipment inspection in Lebanon on the 24th, showcasing their operational readiness. The inspection covered over 20 categories of equipment, including vehicles and medical supplies, with all items meeting or exceeding UN standards. A team of 15 UN professionals conducted the thorough evaluation, highlighting the professionalism of the Chinese forces.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem called for widespread mobilization and international pressure to secure the release of Lebanese detainees held by Israel. He criticized the Lebanese government for failing to take appropriate action and for not prioritizing the issue. According to Lebanese statistics, at least 20 detainees are currently held by Israeli authorities, with most captured after a ceasefire agreement.

Hamas announced the transfer of all Israeli captives and remains in accordance with the ceasefire agreement, emphasizing transparency and urgency. Despite Israel's alleged non-compliance and repeated violations, Hamas completed the transfer under complex conditions. The Israeli government confirmed ongoing searches for the last captive's remains in northern Gaza, based on information provided by Hamas.

Iranian armed forces entered a state of full alert on January 25, monitoring hostile movements and prepared to respond to any aggression. Iranian officials emphasized their readiness to retaliate against U.S. interests in the region, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which they consider a strategic asset. The U.S. has been increasing its military presence in the area, raising tensions.

The 'Gulf Security-4' joint security exercise commenced in Qatar on January 25, involving security agencies from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and the United States. The exercise focuses on counter-terrorism, civil unrest management, cybersecurity threats, border security, and disaster response, and will conclude on February 4 with a joint assessment of outcomes.