Analysis & Reports

Hanwha presented its vision for the future heavy formations of the Republic of Korea Army at the International Armoured Vehicles Conference in Farnborough. The ROK Army plans to deploy new unmanned and manned vehicles, including the K-NIFV and H-UGVs, starting around 2026. Significant changes to the mechanized infantry battalion structure will incorporate MUM-T capabilities, enhancing operational effectiveness against emerging threats.

Casualty estimates in the Ukraine War indicate nearly 2 million combined losses, with 1.2 million Russian and 600,000 Ukrainian casualties. Despite these high numbers, Russia's territorial gains remain minimal, primarily characterized by attrition warfare. North Korean troops are reported to be fighting alongside Russian forces, adding complexity to the conflict. The war continues to strain Russia's economy, reflecting a broader decline in military effectiveness and capability.

Ukrainian President Zelensky approved a new defense plan framework on February 3. The Ukrainian Cabinet will ensure the development of this plan with the involvement of the Security Service of Ukraine, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, and the National Bank of Ukraine. The specifics of the new defense plan remain classified.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that NATO military support, including troops and aircraft, will arrive in Ukraine immediately following a peace agreement with Russia. He emphasized NATO's commitment to Ukraine and the need for Ukraine to make difficult decisions for lasting peace. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia cannot accept the deployment of Western military personnel and facilities in Ukraine.

Machiavelli's philosophy asserts that leaders are more secure when feared than loved, emphasizing the necessity of power in governance. His ideas, articulated in 'The Prince' in 1517, contrast with moral leadership concepts and highlight the anarchic nature of international relations. Machiavelli's influence on political and military strategy continues to be significant.

U.S. Army soldiers from the 6th Squadron, 9th Cavalry Regiment conducted mounted maneuver operations as opposing forces during the NATO Winter Camp exercise near Tapa, Estonia, on January 31, 2026. The training involved coordination with French and British units and focused on enhancing cold-weather readiness and interoperability among allied forces. The exercise emphasized operations in challenging winter conditions.

Russian Armed Forces conducted large-scale strikes against Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises and energy facilities from February 2 to 3, 2023, using over 70 missiles and 450 drones. Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed that energy facilities were damaged during the attacks, which were reported to have successfully hit all designated targets.

The French Navy will receive 34 Aliaca VTOL uncrewed aerial systems following an order from the Directorate General of Armament on February 3, 2026. Deliveries are set to begin in May 2026 after successful testing in 2024 and 2025. The new VTOL configuration enhances operational flexibility for maritime surveillance and situational awareness missions.

Leonardo unveiled the Hystrix family of land-based counter-UAS systems at its Brescia facility in late January. These systems utilize naval artillery calibers of 76 mm, 40 mm, and 30 mm, and are intended for the Michelangelo Dome defense system. Various configurations, including static, relocatable, and mobile, are being developed to enhance air defense capabilities.

Leonardo unveiled the Michelangelo Dome modular defense system in Brescia, Italy, in January 2026, introducing the Hystrix 30 ADS for air defense. The company is developing the Blaze RCWS for light vehicles and showcased the Lionfish 30 at MSPO 2025. Testing of new munitions and systems is planned for mid-2026 to enhance air defense capabilities.

The French Directorate General of Armament has ordered 34 new Aliaca vertical take-off and landing systems from Airbus Helicopters for the French Navy, with deliveries starting in May 2026. This new version enhances operational flexibility and will be used for various missions, including search and rescue. The Aliaca VTOL has been tested and is expected to improve the Navy's capabilities significantly.

Senop has been awarded a contract by the French Armament General Directorate for its advanced fire control system, the Senop AFCD TI. The contract, resulting from years of collaboration, will commence in 2026 and includes training and maintenance support for the French Armed Forces. The AFCD TI is a next-generation fire control solution that enhances combat effectiveness.

Milrem Robotics and EOS Defence Systems signed a teaming agreement on February 02, 2026, to enhance unmanned ground systems and collaborative combat robotics. The partnership aims to explore new business opportunities in defense technology across various regions, including the Middle East, North Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Europe. Key focuses include the integration of advanced weapon systems and counter-UAS solutions.

On February 3, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 450 drones and over 70 missiles, primarily targeting energy facilities. The strikes resulted in damage to residential buildings and energy infrastructure, with nine reported injuries. DTEK confirmed severe damage to a thermal power station during the attacks, while there has been no response from Russia.

The SCAF fighter program is facing severe challenges, with Germany and Spain exploring alternative partnerships while France considers withdrawal. By mid-2025, the program may be canceled due to internal tensions and disagreements among the partners. The timeline for the New Generation Fighter demonstrator has been delayed to 2029, indicating a significant setback in European defense collaboration.

On December 30, 2025, the Belgian Ministry of Defence ordered 92 Griffon and 123 Serval vehicles from KNDS France, marking the first Serval order for Belgium. Luxembourg will also acquire 38 Jaguar and 16 Griffon vehicles through this order, enhancing their military capabilities and interoperability with NATO. The vehicles will be assembled in Belgium, contributing to European military strength.

Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that the country cannot accept the deployment of Western military personnel and infrastructure in Ukraine. He emphasized that the presence of multinational forces, composed of so-called 'volunteer alliance' members, is intended to assist the Ukrainian armed forces and poses a direct threat to Russian security. This statement was made on February 2, 2023, amid ongoing tensions regarding Western involvement in Ukraine.

Explosion sounds were reported in Kyiv, Ukraine, in the early morning of February 3. This incident may indicate military activity or conflict-related events in the area.

U.S. Armed Forces personnel adapt to prolonged periods of waiting and routine, reflecting a military culture that values patience and readiness. This experience, likened to the film 'Groundhog Day', highlights the importance of maintaining alertness during inactivity. Historically, waiting has been a critical aspect of military operations, shaping how conflicts are approached and managed.

NATO launched its largest military exercise of the year, 'Steadfast Lancer-2026', in Germany, involving around 10,000 soldiers from 11 member countries. The exercise, running from January to March 2026, includes over 1,500 military vehicles, more than 20 aircraft, and 17 naval vessels. The U.S. is absent from this exercise due to pre-planned scheduling, while the operation marks the first deployment of NATO's rapid response force.