Analysis & Reports

U.S. Central Command completed the transfer of over 5700 detained ISIS members from northeastern Syria to Iraq on February 12, 2023. This operation, lasting 23 days, was initiated to ensure the security of these individuals in detention facilities. The Iraqi military has started judicial procedures for the 2250 members received as part of this transfer.

Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will not abandon the goal of demilitarizing Gaza and disarming Hamas, as stated by IDF Chief of Staff in Rafah on February 13. The IDF is preparing for offensive operations and focusing on dismantling underground military infrastructure in the area. Hamas officials have declared that resistance will persist as long as Israel continues its attacks.

Iran's Defense Secretary Ali Shamkhani announced that the country will respond decisively to any reckless actions against it. He emphasized that Iran's missile systems are a non-negotiable red line and stated that Israel cannot act without U.S. support. Shamkhani also noted Iran's high military readiness and warned that any miscalculations would lead to severe consequences. Indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. are ongoing in Muscat, Oman.

The U.S. Air Force awarded a sole-source contract to Boeing for new GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators to replace munitions used in previous strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. This action is aimed at restoring operational readiness and ensuring the Air Force Global Strike Command has the necessary assets for strategic contingency plans. The contract is valued at over $100 million, with deliveries starting in January 2028.

The U.S. Air Force awarded a contract to Boeing for new GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators to replace munitions used in previous strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. This action aims to restore operational readiness and ensure the Air Force Global Strike Command has the necessary assets for strategic contingency plans. The contract is valued at over $100 million, with deliveries starting in January 2028.

Makine ve Kimya Endüstrisi (MKE) signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Saudi Arabia on February 12, 2026, for the joint production of the MKE TOLGA Short-Range Air Defence System and 122 mm MLRS ammunition. This agreement marks MKE's third export of the TOLGA system in a month, following similar agreements with Qatar and Egypt. Additionally, MKE is establishing ammunition production lines in Saudi Arabia and is in talks for the export of BORAN 105 mm Howitzers.

Makine ve Kimya Endüstrisi (MKE) signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Saudi Arabia on 12 February 2026 for the joint production of the MKE TOLGA Short-Range Air Defence System and 122 mm MLRS ammunition. This marks MKE's third export of the TOLGA system in a month, following exports to Qatar and Egypt. Additionally, MKE is establishing ammunition production lines in Saudi Arabia and has signed an agreement for joint explosives production.

The U.S. has ordered the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier to the Middle East, joining the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group in the Persian Gulf. This move is intended to exert greater military pressure on Iran amid ongoing tensions. President Trump reiterated his preference for diplomatic solutions during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, while Iranian officials warned of a strong response to any military provocations.

Russia introduced the Sarma multiple launch rocket system at the World Defense Show in Riyadh in 2026. The system features a command-and-control vehicle and a target acquisition UAV, enhancing its operational capabilities. The Sarma can launch six rockets in 18 seconds and is designed for rapid deployment, with guided rockets capable of reaching targets up to 120 km away.

U.S. forces completed the withdrawal from al-Tanf, Syria, transferring over 5,700 ISIS fighters to Iraqi custody. This operation is part of a broader conditions-based drawdown strategy in response to the evolving situation in Syria following the departure of former dictator Bashar al-Assad.

The USS Gerald R. Ford is being deployed to the Middle East to bolster U.S. military presence alongside the USS Abraham Lincoln. This move aims to apply pressure on Iran regarding its nuclear program amid ongoing tensions and discussions. The deployment follows warnings from Gulf Arab nations about the risks of regional conflict and coincides with internal unrest in Iran.

The USS Gerald R. Ford is being deployed to the Middle East to bolster U.S. military presence alongside the USS Abraham Lincoln. This move aims to apply pressure on Iran regarding its nuclear program, coinciding with ongoing internal unrest in Iran. The deployment follows recent discussions about potential negotiations with Iran, highlighting the strategic military posture of the U.S. in the region.

Saudi Arabia has signed a contract to acquire four armed C-27J Maritime Patrol Aircraft, enhancing its maritime surveillance and combat capabilities. The aircraft will be equipped with advanced systems for anti-ship and anti-submarine warfare, including MARTE-ER missiles and MU90 torpedoes. This acquisition positions Saudi Arabia as the first operator of this armed variant, marking a significant evolution in its military capabilities.

Saudi Arabia concluded the Global Defense Exhibition 2026 in Riyadh on February 12, 2026, signing 220 agreements, including 60 arms contracts worth 33 billion SAR. The event highlighted the country's ambition to localize 50% of military spending by 2030, with a current localization rate of 25%. The exhibition featured significant international participation, including a notable absence of major Emirati companies, reflecting rising tensions.

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Exail opened a new office in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 11, 2026, to enhance its operations and support local customers and partners. This move aims to strengthen customer support and foster long-term partnerships in the region, addressing local operational needs effectively.

Norinco unveiled the FL50 swarm-capable loitering munition at the World Defense Show in Riyadh in 2026. The system features a multi-canister launcher mounted on an armoured carrier, designed for precision strikes and capable of operating autonomously or within a sensor network. Each munition weighs 37 kg and is equipped with a 5.5 kg warhead, enhancing the operational capabilities of military forces.

Estonian officials engaged in discussions with Saudi Arabia in Riyadh to explore defense procurement cooperation during the World Defense Show 2026. The talks, led by Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur, aim to establish a memorandum of understanding between the nations' procurement agencies. Estonia seeks to increase its defense exports significantly by 2030, while Saudi Arabia's GAMI supports the development of its military industries.

Fincantieri plans to boost defense production capacity in Italy and increase revenue by 40% by 2030, driven by rising global defense spending. The company anticipates securing €50 billion in new orders, adding to its existing €60 billion backlog. Additionally, Fincantieri is expanding its undersea business and has signed contracts with foreign customers, including a €200 million deal with Saudi Arabia for torpedoes.

The U.S. completed its withdrawal from the Tanf base in Syria on February 12, 2026, while simultaneously increasing its military presence in the Gulf region with 36 F-15E Strike Eagles and the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group. This strategic repositioning aims to deter Iran, as U.S. forces face risks from Iranian missile and drone attacks. Regional allies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, express concerns about escalating tensions.

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The U.S. Navy has deployed a large fleet in the Persian Gulf and a small fleet near Cuba and Venezuela as part of its strategy to address rising international tensions. Admiral Darryl Caudle highlighted the ongoing strategic importance of aircraft carriers and the Navy's commitment to countering illegal activities in the Caribbean. Additionally, the Navy is enhancing its capabilities through technological advancements and plans to strengthen its presence in the Arctic region.