Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
Ukraine has struck Russian factory vital for Moscow’s missiles, private intelligence firm says
Ukraine struck the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant in Rostov Oblast, Russia, on September 26, 2023, using Neptune cruise missiles and drones. This factory is vital for supplying electronics for several Russian missile programs, including the Kh-101 cruise missile. The attack potentially disrupts Russia's missile production capabilities, as the plant has no alternative suppliers for key components.
Oil Might Be Flowing Through the Strait of Hormuz, But for All the Wrong Reasons
Saudi Arabia increased oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz to 13.1 million barrels per day as of February 2026, despite challenges from Houthi control over key chokepoints. The Bab el-Mandeb saw a decline in oil exports to 2.53 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia is redirecting tankers to the Indian Ocean to meet Chinese orders, indicating a shift in strategy amid ongoing regional tensions.
In 1997 a Bankrupt Russian Tank Factory Showed Off a Prototype That Stored Its Ammunition in an Isolated Turret Bustle Behind Blowout Panels. Nobody Bought a Single One. Russian Tanks in Ukraine Still Carry Their Shells in a Ring Under the Crew.
Omsktransmash developed the T-80 Black Eagle tank prototype from 1997 to 1999, featuring a redesigned turret and advanced armor. Despite showcasing the tank at various expos, it failed to attract buyers, leading to the company's bankruptcy in 2002. The Russian Army's disinterest in the T-80 series contributed to the project's cancellation.
Putin's Decree on 1.55 Million Military Personnel Shows the Cost of a Prolonged War for Russia
On September 29, 2026, President Putin announced an increase in the Russian Armed Forces to 1.55 million personnel, marking the fourth adjustment in 2026. This decision coincides with plans to raise defense spending by about 27% in 2027. Reports also suggest North Korea may prepare to send 10,000 troops to assist Russia, highlighting the ongoing personnel challenges faced by the Russian military.
Dmitri VolkovTue Sep 29 2026Loading...
Russia plans record $200 billion military budget for 2027
Russia plans to spend 17.1 trillion rubles ($201 billion) on its military in 2027, a 27% increase from previous estimates. The total defense budget over the next three years is projected to reach 50 trillion rubles ($592 billion). The government aims to address budget deficits through borrowing and new taxes, with defense expected to account for 35% of federal spending in 2027.
Russia raises 2027 military spending by 27%, budget documents show
Russia plans to increase its military spending to 17.1 trillion roubles ($202.6 billion) in 2027, marking a 27% rise from previous budgets. The total defense budget will reach 50 trillion roubles over the next three years. The government also raised its 2026 budget deficit estimate to 3.2% of GDP and plans to implement new taxes to finance the deficit.
The "Iskra" Factory in Ulyanovsk Attacked by Drones — X-59 Production in Russia Vulnerable in 2026
Ukrainian drones attacked the Iskra plant in Ulyanovsk on September 25, 2026, impacting the production of X-59 missiles. This strike is part of a strategy to disrupt Russian military production capabilities, particularly in electronics and missile systems. The attack highlights vulnerabilities in Russia's defense industry and its reliance on specialized manufacturing.
Dmitri VolkovFri Sep 25 2026Loading...
Russian Refineries Under Attack from Ukrainian Drones in 2026 — Oil Logistics Became a Front in the War
Ukrainian drones struck Russian oil refineries in Moscow and Samara in September 2026, disrupting production and logistics. This campaign is part of a broader strategy to target Russian fuel infrastructure, increasing operational challenges for the Russian military. The effectiveness of Russian air defenses is questioned as they struggle to protect multiple facilities simultaneously.
Dmitri VolkovWed Sep 23 2026Loading...
Russia is laying down 28,000 new "Geraniums" a year — underground restructuring of the defense industry in 2026
Russia is expanding its drone production capabilities by planning to manufacture 28,000 new 'Geran' drones annually by 2026 at Alabuga in Tatarstan. The construction of underground facilities aims to protect these production sites from Ukrainian strikes. Additionally, China is supplying materials necessary for this production, indicating a reliance on external sources for key components. This strategy reflects Russia's intent to maintain a sustained military campaign despite ongoing Ukrainian attacks.
Dmitri VolkovTue Sep 22 2026Loading...
Russian "Geraniums" Transition to Underground Production — 28,000 Drones Change the War in 2026
Russia is transitioning to underground production of Geran drones at the Alabuga facility, aiming to increase output by 28,000 units by 2029. This expansion is a response to Ukraine's capability to strike Russian targets and involves significant enhancements in drone technology and production methods. The initiative reflects a strategic shift in Russia's military capabilities, focusing on sustaining drone warfare over time.
Dmitri VolkovTue Sep 22 2026Loading...
Russia and Ukraine Are Now Fighting an Energy War
On September 17, 2025, Russia's Ministry of Defense reported targeting energy and industrial infrastructure in Ukraine, resulting in 19 injuries and the destruction of 131 aerial targets. In retaliation, Ukraine launched drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and military airfields. This escalation reflects a shift in the conflict towards economic warfare, with both sides attacking critical infrastructure nightly.
The Ukraine Is Making NATO Rethink Just About Everything
Ukraine produced nearly 2 million drones in 2024, while Russia increased its production to 3,000 jet-powered UAVs monthly. Both nations are engaged in drone warfare, prompting NATO to reassess its military strategies and increase defense budgets. A new air defense coalition has formed among European allies to address the shortage of U.S.-made Patriot missiles.
Russia reportedly buries its drone factory underground
Russia is constructing underground production facilities for Shahed and Geran drones in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, following prior Ukrainian strikes. The underground area spans approximately 42,000 square meters, with ongoing expansion and added physical defenses to complicate targeting. This site is crucial for Russia's drone manufacturing capabilities, heavily relying on foreign labor.
629 Drones and the Shutdown of the Oil Refinery — Russian Air Defense Enters the War of Attrition in 2026
On September 18, 2026, Russian air defense intercepted 629 Ukrainian drones over Southern Russia. Concurrently, Ukrainian strikes led to the disruption of operations at the Syzran and Saratov oil refineries. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of Ukrainian radar and electronic warfare systems, highlighting the ongoing military engagement and the shift towards a war of attrition targeting economic infrastructure.
Dmitri VolkovFri Sep 18 2026Loading...
Ukraine's Energy Truce Offer Tests Russia's 2026 War Aims
Ukraine proposed to pause attacks on Russian critical infrastructure if Russia ceases its strikes on Ukrainian energy systems. This offer aims to mitigate civilian suffering as winter approaches, while maintaining military options. The proposal raises questions about Russia's strategic objectives and the complexities of verifying any potential agreement.
Alexandra ReevesTue Sep 15 2026Loading...Russian strike on train near Poland escalates war to a level of border pressure
On September 14, 2026, a Russian drone struck a passenger train locomotive near Yahodyn, Ukraine, close to the Polish border. The attack occurred shortly after a diplomatic train crossed into Poland, prompting evacuation of passengers due to ongoing threats. This incident highlights the ongoing Russian campaign against Ukrainian transport infrastructure and raises concerns about potential escalation into Polish territory.
Dmitri VolkovMon Sep 14 2026Loading...Ukrainian Drones Strike Two Russian Refineries — The Depth of the Attack Changes the Oil War of 2026
Ukrainian drones struck two Russian oil refineries in Slavyansk-na-Kubani and Nizhnekamsk on September 13, 2026, testing the capabilities of Russian air defenses. The attacks, occurring 1,200 kilometers from Ukraine, signify a strategic escalation in the conflict, targeting critical logistical infrastructure. Russian officials confirmed air defense activity but did not reveal the damage extent, highlighting vulnerabilities in the defense of industrial sites.
Dmitri VolkovSun Sep 13 2026Loading...
New Russian tanks arrive with upgraded protection
Uralvagonzavod delivered a new batch of T-90M and T-72B3M tanks to the Russian Army, featuring upgraded protection systems. This delivery coincided with Tank Crew Day, highlighting the ongoing efforts to enhance Russia's armored capabilities amid significant losses in Ukraine. The tanks include advanced protective features developed over two years, aimed at improving battlefield survivability.
"Flamingo Missiles Strike Saratov and Perm — Russia's Rear Becomes an Industrial Front 2026"
Ukrainian forces attacked the Saratov oil refinery and Uralchem Azot chemical plant on September 10-11, 2026, marking a significant escalation in targeting Russian industrial capabilities. This was the sixth strike on the Saratov facility this year, indicating a systematic effort to disrupt Russian logistics and supply chains. The Russian government confirmed damage to these sites but did not disclose the extent of the impact.
Dmitri VolkovSat Sep 12 2026Loading...
The United States Did Not Have Enough High-Grade Titanium to Build the SR-71 Blackbird, So the CIA Bought It From the Soviet Union Through Shell Companies in Neutral Countries. The Airframe Was 85 to 90 Percent Titanium, and Much of the Ore Came Out of Soviet Ukraine.
The CIA procured high-grade titanium from the Soviet Union through shell companies in the 1960s for the construction of the SR-71 Blackbird. The aircraft, primarily made of titanium, was designed to withstand extreme temperatures while flying at high speeds. Much of the titanium ore came from Soviet Ukraine, and the procurement process involved a covert network to avoid detection by the Soviets. A total of 32 SR-71s were built, reflecting the significant engineering challenges faced during the program.
