Analysis & Reports

On May 12, Russian President Putin received reports of a successful test launch of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. The missile, capable of reaching 35,000 kilometers, is expected to have its first regiment operational by the end of the year. It can carry various nuclear warheads, including hypersonic ones, and is designed to replace the Soviet-era Satan missile.

Russian forces conducted extensive drone and artillery attacks against Ukrainian positions from May 9 to 11, 2026, resulting in 180 combat engagements and significant losses for both sides. President Putin claimed the war was nearing its end, despite ongoing military operations and a recent three-day ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Trump. Notably, drones from Russian territory crashed in Latvia, highlighting the conflict's regional implications.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 12 2026Loading...

The Russian Aerospace Forces continue to upgrade their Tu-160M strategic bombers, with the first upgraded aircraft, Deynekin, photographed after a five-year modernization process. Currently, only seven of the 18 Tu-160M aircraft are actively engaged in combat missions against Ukraine, while the rest are involved in testing, training, or maintenance. The Kazan Aircraft Production Association is managing the modernization and production efforts, which are reportedly slower than official statements suggest.

Armenia publicly displayed French-supplied CAESAR self-propelled artillery systems during rehearsals for the Republic Day parade in Yerevan on May 28, 2023. This marks a significant shift in Armenia's military hardware from Russian to Western equipment, reflecting ongoing defense reforms under Prime Minister Pashinyan. The CAESAR artillery, known for its strategic mobility and firepower, symbolizes Armenia's evolving defense relationships following recent military setbacks.

Russian forces launched 78 airstrikes and 9,317 kamikaze drones against Ukrainian positions on May 7, 2026. Ukrainian drones struck the Mosfilm Tower in Moscow, while two drones crashed in Latvia, damaging an oil facility. Total Russian military losses reached approximately 1,342,030 personnel. Three ceasefire proposals were made within a week, but combat operations continued unabated.

Dmitri VolkovMon May 11 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces successfully struck the NTC Radar research facility in Rostov overnight between May 7 and 8, completely destroying the main building and partially burning another. Two additional drone strikes hit rooftops, likely igniting fires in nearby structures. This operation targets Russia's defense industrial capacity, disrupting military electronics development and production.

Ukrainian forces launched a deep-strike campaign in early May 2026, targeting critical infrastructure in Russia, including the Kirishinefteorgsintez oil refinery and the VNIIR-Progress plant. The strikes involved F-5 Flamingo missiles and resulted in significant damage and operational halts. Concurrently, Russian forces engaged in retaliatory strikes and reported substantial personnel and equipment losses. The conflict's dynamics have shifted, with Ukrainian capabilities reaching deep into Russian territory.

Dmitri VolkovSat May 09 2026Loading...

Russia has dispatched upgraded T-90M, T-80BVM, and T-72B3M tanks to its armed forces, incorporating combat lessons and feedback from frontline troops. The delivery, announced by Rostec, highlights ongoing production despite Western sanctions and includes significant upgrades to electronic warfare protection and armor. This shipment reflects the current state of Russian armored forces and their adaptation to battlefield challenges.

Russia commissioned its eighth Project 22800 Karakurt-class missile corvette, named Burya, in Baltiysk on May 8, 2026. This event occurred one day after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged a similar vessel at a naval base in the Caspian Sea. The new corvette is equipped to launch Kalibr cruise missiles, underscoring its operational significance amid ongoing naval conflicts.

Russia unveiled the Geran-5, a new heavy jet-powered strike drone, during the May 9 Victory Day parade in Oryol. This drone represents a significant advancement in size and capability over previous models, featuring a layered navigation architecture that enhances its resilience against electronic warfare. The design shows similarities to the Iranian Karrar drone, indicating ongoing military cooperation between Russia and Iran.

Ukrainian forces conducted significant long-range strikes against Russian infrastructure in May 2026, targeting key facilities such as the Kirishinefteorgsintez oil refinery and the VNIIR-Progress plant. These actions exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's air defense systems, prompting airport closures across fifteen cities. The strikes reflect a strategic shift in the conflict, with Ukraine demonstrating the capability to reach deep into Russian territory.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 08 2026Loading...

Russia claims to have doubled its combat aircraft production, delivering 30 new tactical aircraft to its Aerospace Forces in 2025. However, independent analysis indicates that production targets were not met, with only half of the expected 57 aircraft delivered. The report highlights significant losses of 65 aircraft in the ongoing conflict, resulting in a net reduction of 35 aircraft for the year. Despite claims of industrial resilience, the actual output does not keep pace with attrition rates.

HAVELSAN signed a contract amendment for the Version 3 configuration of the BARKAN Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) at SAHA Expo 2026. The BARKAN UGV, first inducted into the Turkish Armed Forces in 2023, has evolved based on operational feedback and can be configured for various missions. It features a modular architecture, AI-supported perception, and is designed to operate in conjunction with other systems.

Ukrainian defense forces struck a Russian Karakurt-class missile corvette at its base in Kaspiysk, Republic of Dagestan, overnight on May 7. The attack utilized FP-1 drones and represents a significant extension of Ukrainian strike capabilities into the Caspian Sea, targeting a vessel capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. The extent of the damage is currently being assessed.

HAVELSAN signed a contract amendment for the Version 3 configuration of the BARKAN Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) at SAHA Expo 2026. The BARKAN UGV, first inducted into the Turkish Armed Forces in 2023, has evolved based on operational feedback. BARKAN 3 features modular capabilities for various missions and is designed to operate alongside other systems, enhancing its effectiveness in complex operational scenarios.

Russia declared a ceasefire from May 8-9, threatening missile strikes on Kyiv if disrupted. Ukraine reported over 1,800 violations of its ceasefire, leading to civilian casualties. Ukrainian forces escalated deep strikes on Russian oil refineries, while NATO conducted military exercises in response to the heightened tensions. Russia launched a record 409 drones in a single wave against Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovThu May 07 2026Loading...

On May 3, 2026, Ukraine executed a significant drone offensive against Russian targets, including oil infrastructure in Primorsk. In response, Russia launched a counter-offensive with drones and missiles. The conflict has intensified, with both sides engaging in unprecedented aerial exchanges, while Ukraine's strikes aim to degrade Russia's economic capacity. Diplomatic tensions escalated with Russia proposing a ceasefire, which Ukraine dismissed, leading to further military actions.

Dmitri VolkovWed May 06 2026Loading...

Russia scheduled missile tests at the Kura test range in Kamchatka Krai from May 6 to 10, 2026, as a nuclear signaling move to deter potential Ukrainian strikes during the Victory Day parade on May 9. The tests involve nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles and are intended to convey a message of deterrence amid heightened tensions surrounding the holiday.

Rostec has developed the SERP-FPV, a vehicle-mounted counter-FPV drone jammer, designed to protect mobile assets from drone attacks. This system features rapid deployment capabilities and 360-degree coverage, allowing it to effectively suppress signals from FPV drones, including those operating on custom frequencies. The SERP-FPV is part of a broader effort to enhance electronic warfare capabilities in response to evolving drone threats in the conflict.

Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Moscow and other Russian locations on May 5, leading to the interception of 117 drones by Russian forces. The attacks coincide with heightened security measures in Moscow ahead of the Victory Day parade, which has been significantly scaled back due to perceived threats. Ukraine's military operations have expanded into Russia's industrial heartland, while diplomatic tensions continue to rise between NATO and Russia. President Zelensky proposed a unilateral ceasefire, challenging Russia's response.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 05 2026Loading...