Analysis & Reports

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is prepared to respond to potential enemy attacks, as stated by Deputy Commander Vahidi on the 24th. The U.S. is deploying a large fleet, including an aircraft carrier, to the Middle East amid escalating tensions. Vahidi emphasized that anti-government groups in Iran are linked to foreign enemies, and the IRGC's readiness has improved since the last conflict with Israel.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi met with U.S. Central Command Commander General Michael Kurilla in Israel on October 24. The meeting included discussions with Israeli military intelligence and operations leaders. General Kurilla's previous visit to Israel was in September 2022. Additionally, U.S. officials are expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, while Turkey's Foreign Minister warned of potential Israeli actions against Iran.

On January 24, the Yemeni government conducted strikes against Houthi forces in western Taiz Province. This action was taken in response to the Houthis' attempts to establish a new military base in the area.

Kilo-class submarines of the Russian Navy are actively conducting missile attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure in the Black Sea. These submarines, known for their stealth capabilities, have been involved in military operations since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Recent reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted and damaged some of these submarines, highlighting their strategic significance in the ongoing conflict.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced its heightened readiness to respond to any aggressive actions by enemies, claiming to be better prepared than during the '12-day war.' This statement comes amid U.S. military deployments to the Middle East, which Iran views as a threat to its sovereignty. The IRGC criticized the U.S. for supporting anti-government factions while simultaneously committing crimes within Iran.

Iran has enhanced its missile defense capabilities and increased the quantity and quality of its missile strength compared to last year. The Iranian Defense Ministry spokesperson emphasized the improved efficiency of these systems. Concurrently, the U.S. has threatened military intervention, with President Trump announcing a large fleet heading to the Middle East, including an aircraft carrier and additional missile defense systems.

Iran showcased its domestically produced 'Shahed' series drones during a televised event on the evening of the 22nd. The drones, including models like the 'Shahed-129', were previously used in a military conflict with Israel last June. IRGC Air Force officials highlighted the capabilities of these drones, including their armament and specifications.

U.S. Central Command Commander Brad Cooper visited Israel on January 24, marking his first visit since September. He was reported to have already arrived in Israel, coinciding with the expected arrival of U.S. Presidential envoy Wittekov and senior advisor Kushner, who are set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The U.S. Navy deployed a carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln towards Iran in response to rising tensions and human rights abuses amid protests. President Trump indicated that military action could be considered if Iran proceeds with executions of protesters. The UK is also sending RAF Eurofighter Typhoon jets to Qatar to support regional stability.

The U.S. Navy initiated a $15.8 million barracks renovation project at Naval Support Activity Bahrain on January 12. This project is part of the Navy's 'Sailors First' initiative, aimed at improving living conditions for personnel. The renovations will include new roofing, flooring, plumbing, and electrical systems, contributing to enhanced mission readiness and talent retention.

Turkey and Qatar signed multiple defense agreements during DIMDEX 2026 in Doha, including a $1 billion deal for two Istif-class frigates for the Indonesian Navy. The agreements signify a shift towards joint ventures and localized production in defense, with Barzan Holdings and Turkish companies collaborating on unmanned systems and other military technologies.

Iran threatens to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions with the US, leveraging the strategic chokepoint as a bargaining tool. The closure could lead to significant economic repercussions, including spikes in oil prices and increased military readiness from the US and allies. However, Iran's capacity to maintain a total closure is limited due to the overwhelming naval power of the US.

Bulgaria approved a $205 million project to purchase Naval Strike Missiles to enhance its coastal defense capabilities. The deal, conducted with the U.S. government, is expected to see payments concentrated between 2029 and 2030. This acquisition follows a similar purchase by Romania and is part of a broader effort to counter increased Russian military activity in the Black Sea.

The United Kingdom deployed 12 Typhoon fighter jets to Qatar as part of a defensive mission in response to regional tensions. This deployment, carried out by the Royal Air Force 12 Squadron, supports regional defense and stability under the UK-Qatar Defence Assurance Agreement. The presence of the Typhoon aircraft reflects the long-standing defense partnership between the UK and Qatar, enhancing both nations' security in the Gulf region.

The U.S. has significantly increased military transport flights and equipment deliveries to the Middle East since late 2025, focusing on bases in Jordan, Israel, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. This includes the transfer of air defense systems, tanks, and other military equipment. U.S. Air Force fighter aircraft are concentrated at the Muwaffaq Salti airbase in Jordan, while the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has moved to the Indian Ocean.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are advancing the Carmel programme, focusing on integrating advanced technologies into armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) since 2021. Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) was selected as the prime contractor, with the Merkava Mk4 Barak being the first to operationally integrate these technologies. The Carmel suite enhances crew survivability and situational awareness, allowing for closed hatch operations. The IDF plans to increase production of advanced AFVs, including the Merkava Mk4 Barak and Eitan APCs, by 2025.

President Trump announced the mobilization of a large military force towards Iran on January 22. Numerous naval vessels are currently en route to Iran as a precautionary measure. The U.S. government is closely monitoring the situation.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned the U.S. and Israel against misjudging the situation, emphasizing their readiness to execute orders from Supreme Leader Khamenei. This warning follows recent threats from the U.S. and Israel, with Trump suggesting Iran is interested in negotiations. The U.S. has also threatened military intervention in Iran, raising international concerns.

The U.S. is considering a complete withdrawal of its approximately 1000 troops from Syria as Kurdish forces lose control of the eastern regions. Concerns over the management of ISIS prisoners and the effectiveness of the Syrian Democratic Forces have prompted this reassessment. The situation is evolving as the U.S. weighs its military presence against the backdrop of recent events in Syria.

Hundreds of officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) defected amid ongoing protests against the Iranian regime in January 2023. The regime has intensified crackdowns, including internet blackouts, to suppress dissent. Several Iranian diplomats are also seeking asylum in Europe, indicating a potential political shift. The protests are being likened to significant historical moments of regime change.