Analysis & Reports

On July 16, Russia transferred 501 deceased military personnel to Ukraine, while Ukraine transferred 31 bodies to Russia. The exchange took place in Gomel, Belarus, which will continue to facilitate future exchanges of prisoners and deceased personnel between the two countries.

Ukrainian forces successfully struck two Russian oil tankers, 'Louise 1' and 'Banda', using a maritime drone in the Black Sea on October 16. These vessels have been responsible for oil transportation for Russia. The Russian side has not yet responded to this incident.

Ukrainian forces conducted drone operations on July 15, 2023, targeting 20 vessels in the Black Sea, including oil tankers and a tugboat. This operation is part of a larger campaign against Russian maritime logistics, which has seen intensified strikes on Odessa and surrounding areas. The Ukrainian military aims to disrupt Russian shipping and oil transport, reflecting a shift in the maritime conflict dynamics.

Dmitri VolkovThu Jul 16 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones struck Russia's Engels air base overnight into July 16, causing explosions and a fire. The attack targeted the military airfield, which hosts strategic bombers, and was confirmed by multiple sources. Reports indicate that drones with a new design were used, and Russian air defenses were active during the incident.

Russian forces conducted strikes on Ukrainian military facilities, including drone storage and logistics centers, on the 15th. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces reported targeting a Russian Mi-28 helicopter in Belgorod and intercepting numerous Russian drones. The conflict saw 73 battles reported on the front lines that day.

Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson declared that the deployment of military forces from any 'Volunteer Alliance' country in Ukraine is unacceptable and will be treated as legitimate targets. This statement was made during a press conference in Moscow on July 15, 2023. The 'Volunteer Alliance', led by France and the UK, plans to conduct military exercises in European countries bordering Ukraine, which Russia views as a significant security threat.

Russia's Iskander-M missile system is actively being utilized in Ukraine, demonstrating advanced capabilities against air defenses. The missile can carry nuclear payloads and employs tactics to evade interception. Continuous improvements have been made based on battlefield experience, and it can coordinate with drone swarms to enhance its effectiveness. The system poses a significant threat to NATO countries due to its range and capabilities.

Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces damaged or disabled 116 Russian-linked vessels during a nine-day drone campaign in the Sea of Azov, with an additional wave targeting 20 more vessels. The operation focused on commercial and logistical vessels, aiming to disrupt Russia's military supply lines. This campaign reflects Ukraine's strategy of targeting infrastructure rather than direct military assets, utilizing inexpensive drones for sustained attacks.

Russia's submarine force remains a significant threat to NATO in 2026, with 8 Borei-class submarines and ongoing modernization efforts. The fleet faces challenges, including slow production rates and operational losses, but continues to operate effectively in strategic regions like the Arctic and North Atlantic. The introduction of new capabilities, such as the Khabarovsk carrier for Poseidon torpedoes, underscores its importance in Russia's military strategy.

Ukrainian naval drones targeted 136 Russian vessels between July 6 and 15, 2026, disrupting logistics in the Azov and Black Seas. This operation included attacks on oil tankers and gas carriers, indicating a shift in Ukrainian tactics to undermine Russian supply lines. In response, Russia is contemplating changes to its cargo routes due to the increased frequency of these attacks.

Dmitri VolkovWed Jul 15 2026Loading...

Ukrainian FPV drone operators from the Rarog unit struck a Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter near Vyazovoye at around 10:00, hitting the tail boom and causing it to crash. This incident highlights the growing effectiveness of drones against traditional air assets, raising concerns for NATO about the vulnerability of helicopters in combat. The Mi-28, valued at millions, was taken down by a relatively inexpensive drone, indicating a significant shift in battlefield dynamics.

Alexandra ReevesWed Jul 15 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drone operators from the Rarog unit struck a Russian Mi-28 helicopter with a FPV drone near Vyazovoye in Belgorod region around 10:00, causing it to crash. The strike targeted the helicopter's tail boom, demonstrating the effectiveness of drone warfare against heavily armored aircraft. This incident reflects a continuing trend of successful drone strikes on Russian Mi-28s by Ukrainian forces.

Fortaco Finland Oy signed an agreement to sell its steel fabrication and assembly operations in Kurikka, Sastamala, Narva, Wroclaw, and Janow Lubelski to HANZA Group for EUR 144 million. This transaction, expected to close in Q4-2026, allows Fortaco to concentrate on its vehicle cabin business, enhancing its position in the market. HANZA Group aims to strengthen its capabilities in Europe through this acquisition, which includes five factories.

Ukrainian forces struck 20 Russian vessels in the Black Sea on July 15, 2023, using drone systems. The operation targeted 17 tankers, 2 liquefied gas transport ships, and 1 tugboat, marking a shift in operations from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. This action was confirmed by the Ukrainian military's social media announcement.

Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force is set to participate in RIMPAC 2026 and Sea Breeze 2026 exercises in July 2026, focusing on operations in both the Pacific and Black Sea. These exercises highlight Japan's adaptation to complex maritime threats, including the integration of unmanned systems and mine warfare. However, the increased training commitments may strain domestic readiness and personnel resources.

Tanaka TakashiWed Jul 15 2026Loading...

The Russian Navy decommissioned the Lada-class submarine Sankt Petersburg in 2023 due to persistent failures and high costs associated with its development. The Lada-class was intended to enhance Russia's undersea warfare capabilities but has been plagued by issues since its inception. Efforts to export the submarines have also failed, with no interest from potential buyers.

Ukraine launched drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and shipping in the Black Sea, targeting facilities in Bashkortostan and Krasnodar Krai. Russian air defenses intercepted 288 drones overnight, while Ukrainian forces reported successful hits on multiple vessels. These operations are part of a broader strategy to disrupt Russian energy supplies and logistics, contributing to a fuel crisis in Russia.

The Ukrainian Navy confirmed the destruction of the Russian border guard ship Izumrud near Novorossiysk on July 14, 2026, using the Sargan-3000 unmanned surface strike boat. Satellite imagery shows the ship partially submerged and the surrounding pier scorched, validating the Ukrainian claims. This incident adds to the ongoing degradation of Russia's naval capabilities in the Black Sea.

The Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia's only aircraft carrier, is set to be scrapped in Murmansk by 2025 after years of failed repairs and multiple accidents. The vessel has been out of service since 2017, and its decommissioning reflects the Russian Navy's inability to maintain modern naval capabilities. Corruption and financial mismanagement further complicated the situation, leaving Russia without an operational aircraft carrier and diminishing its power projection capabilities.

Turkey is negotiating to sell its Russian-made S-400 missile system to acquire U.S. F-35 fighter jets, amid significant political and military implications. The U.S. has expressed concerns about Turkey's S-400 system preventing the sale of F-35s, while Israel opposes the deal, fearing it would disrupt regional power dynamics. Discussions with Russia regarding the resale of the S-400 are ongoing, adding complexity to the situation.