Analysis & Reports

The U.S. Air Force developed and tested the Rusty Dagger cruise missile in record time, with 3,350 units approved for sale to Ukraine by August 2025. The missile, built by Zone 5 Technologies, was designed to meet urgent wartime needs and demonstrated unprecedented speed in its acquisition and integration into military operations. The program's rapid development allowed for combat readiness ahead of schedule, showcasing a significant shift in military procurement processes.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries in July 2026 have reduced Russian gasoline production to 65% of domestic demand, causing significant fuel shortages. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have targeted 22 refineries, leading to operational disruptions and prompting Russian authorities to impose restrictions on fuel sales. This situation reflects a strategic shift in Ukraine's approach, aiming to systematically impact Russia's war economy.

Dmitri VolkovSat Jul 11 2026Loading...

Napoleon's Grande Armée, consisting of 600,000 men, invaded Russia in June 1812 but faced catastrophic starvation due to inadequate supply lines. The misattributed quote 'An army marches on its stomach' highlights the critical logistical failures during this campaign, leading to significant losses before any major battles occurred. The challenges of feeding troops prompted innovations in food preservation, notably the development of canning by Nicolas Appert.

Russian forces conducted intensive strikes on Ukrainian military and energy facilities on October 10, while also intercepting 144 Ukrainian drones over various regions, including the Black Sea. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted multiple sites within Russia and Russian-controlled areas, including oil refineries and 18 ships. Russian troops continue to control 7 settlements and are engaged in demining operations.

On July 9, 2023, Rostec announced the delivery of 2 to 4 new Su-34 and Su-30SM2 combat jets to the Russian military. This delivery comes amid significant losses, with over 60 documented losses of these aircraft types since 2022. The new jets are intended to replace those lost in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, and the delivery was notably accepted by naval aviation crews rather than the Aerospace Forces.

On October 10, two oil storage facilities in Rostov Oblast caught fire due to drone attacks. The Krasnodar Krai command reported a fire from drone debris. Ukrainian forces intercepted 376 drones overnight, while 137 Russian drones were used in attacks on Ukraine.

The F-35 Lightning II decisively outmatches the MiG-35 Fulcrum-F in air combat, primarily due to its stealth and advanced detection capabilities. The MiG-35, while agile in close-range dogfights, is unlikely to engage effectively as it is outclassed in beyond-visual-range scenarios. With fewer than 10 MiG-35s built and over 1,100 F-35s operational, the disparity in numbers further favors the F-35.

A Russian T-90M tank was sighted on July 4, 2026, equipped with the Arena-M active protection system, suggesting a potential shift towards deployment. The system aims to enhance tank survivability against drone threats, although its effectiveness against swarming FPV drones is debated. Crews have shown distrust in the tank's protection, leading to instances of abandonment during combat.

The Komsomolsk-on-Amur plant in Russia completed 20 Su-35 jets for Iran, causing delays for the Russian Aerospace Forces as export orders take precedence. Deliveries to Russia's air force are expected to slow for the next two to three years, highlighting logistical challenges in military aircraft production amid multiple international commitments.

Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces conducted significant strikes on July 6, targeting 47 Russian military assets, including two S-400 launchers in Bryansk and Crimea. The campaign focuses on destroying critical radar systems to blind Russian air defenses, with reports indicating a high rate of attrition against these assets. Despite Russia's ability to produce launchers, the slow replacement of radars poses a challenge for their air defense capabilities.

The Pentagon is enhancing its detection capabilities for deepfakes but is failing to address the more significant issue of adversaries poisoning AI training data. This vulnerability has been documented by civilian researchers, revealing that disinformation campaigns from countries like Iran and Russia are influencing AI outputs. The report emphasizes the need for data provenance standards and greater awareness of these threats among defense professionals.

Ukrainian forces struck nine Russian fuel tankers in the Azov Sea and targeted oil refineries in Saratov and Nizhnekamsk from July 7-8, 2026. These actions disrupted fuel logistics, forcing Russia to rely more on vulnerable maritime transport. The strikes indicate a strategic shift in Ukraine's approach to degrading Russian military supply lines, increasing operational costs for the Russian military in Crimea and the southern theater.

Dmitri VolkovThu Jul 09 2026Loading...

Rostec delivered new Su-30SM2 Flanker-C and Su-34 Fullback aircraft to the Russian Aerospace Forces as part of modernization efforts amid significant losses since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. The Su-30SM2 features enhanced radar capabilities for standoff engagements, while the Su-34 serves as a primary strike aircraft. Open-source intelligence has documented substantial losses of these aircraft types, indicating a critical need for replacements.

Russian satellites have been interfering with GPS signals across northern Europe, Greenland, and Canada since 2019, indicating the use of electronic warfare. This interference has also affected China's Bei Dou navigation system since 2020. The U.S. government has not established backup systems for GPS, despite the growing threat from Russia, which has a history of threatening to disrupt GPS services globally.

On July 8, 2023, Russian air defense systems intercepted 415 drones during a large-scale drone attack in Rostov Oblast. Two oil tankers were damaged in Taganrog Bay, resulting in minor injuries to two individuals. The local governor warned residents to remain indoors due to the ongoing drone threat.

Azerbaijan's air force began operating JF-17 Thunder fighter jets on July 6, 2024, with two aircraft confirmed at Nasosnaya Air Base. The JF-17C Block III fighters are part of a larger procurement deal for 40 jets from Pakistan, enhancing Azerbaijan's air capabilities. The new fighters are conducting training alongside existing aircraft, indicating integration into the current fleet.

A fire broke out at the fuel storage area of Borisoglebsk military airfield on July 8 following a drone attack. The airfield, part of the Russian Aerospace Forces, is a known target for Ukrainian strikes due to its role in military aviation and pilot training. This incident highlights ongoing efforts to disrupt Russian military logistics and operations.

Ukrainian drones launched a large-scale attack on industrial areas near the Kama River, damaging several enterprises in Nizhnekamsk. In Kiev, a tram depot was struck, resulting in damage to 42 tram cars. Russian air defense intercepted 415 drones during the night of the 7th to the 8th, while Russian forces targeted Ukrainian military facilities, including a missile parts production site.

Ukrainian forces targeted Russian logistics in Crimea in July 2026, striking 8 tankers and 44 electrical substations. This campaign has disrupted supply lines and raised concerns about the operational capacity of Russian forces in the region. The strikes indicate a shift in the Ukrainian strategy to target critical infrastructure supporting Russian military operations.

Dmitri VolkovWed Jul 08 2026Loading...

A Ukrainian drone struck the Omsk oil refinery in Siberia on 6 July 2023, causing it to cease operations. This attack, one of Ukraine's longest-range strikes, has exacerbated the fuel crisis in Russia, leading to fuel shortages and long queues at petrol stations. Central Asian countries reliant on Russian fuel are also facing supply disruptions and increased prices.