Analysis & Reports

Russia is preparing to launch Oreshnik hypersonic missiles against Ukraine, with potential targets including Kyiv and Lviv, as part of a combined strike. This warning follows recent drone attacks on Russian positions in Starobilsk, prompting a call for retaliation from President Putin. The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has also issued alerts about possible significant airstrikes within the next 24 hours, indicating a high-risk situation for Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovSat May 23 2026Loading...

Russian and Belarusian forces conducted nuclear exercises from May 19 to 21, 2026, involving 64,000 personnel and various missile systems. The exercises aimed to prepare nuclear forces for potential aggression, with significant participation from the Russian Northern and Pacific Fleets. Belarusian units trained on the handling of Russian nuclear munitions, indicating a shift in the strategic role of Belarus in the region.

Dmitri VolkovSat May 23 2026Loading...

Russian fighter jets approached a British RC-135W Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft within six meters over the Black Sea, creating a significant risk of collision. This incident, which occurred in international airspace, highlights the aggressive tactics employed by Russia to pressure NATO surveillance operations. The RC-135W, a vital intelligence asset, was conducting routine reconnaissance when the Russian jets executed a dangerous intercept, raising concerns about the safety and operational costs of NATO missions in the region.

Alexandra ReevesFri May 22 2026Loading...

Norway's Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide warned at a NATO meeting in Sweden that Russian nuclear weapons pose a direct threat to nearly all US cities. He highlighted the Kola Peninsula as a key location for Russia's nuclear capabilities and stressed the importance of NATO's unity in addressing this threat. Eide also noted improvements in Ukraine's situation on the battlefield.

Norway's Foreign Minister warned at a NATO meeting in Sweden that Russian nuclear weapons pose a direct threat to all American cities. He emphasized the importance of NATO unity to counter this threat, citing the Kola Peninsula as a key location for Russian nuclear capabilities. Eide also noted that Ukraine has become a significant security provider amid the ongoing conflict.

The missile ship 'Tucha' of the Russian Navy was reportedly destroyed or heavily damaged in Kaspiysk on May 22, 2023, following a Ukrainian strike. This incident significantly undermines the operational security of the Caspian Flotilla, which has been considered a safe base for missile carriers. The loss of 'Tucha' raises concerns about the vulnerability of Russian naval assets to further attacks.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 22 2026Loading...

Monocrystal, a major producer of synthetic sapphire, announced its intention to file for bankruptcy in 2025 following significant damage from Ukrainian drone strikes and the impact of Western sanctions. The company, which supplied critical materials for Russian missiles and drones, has seen its workforce cut nearly in half and is facing severe financial difficulties. This collapse threatens Russia's defense-industrial supply chain for precision optical components.

Four hangars are being constructed at the Chkalovsk naval air base in Kaliningrad Oblast since late April 2026, reflecting a shift in Russian military strategy towards enhancing aircraft protection. This move is in response to increased threats from Ukrainian strikes, indicating a recognition of vulnerabilities in Russian aviation infrastructure. The hangars aim to provide passive defense against drone attacks and other threats, showcasing a change in resource allocation within the Russian Armed Forces.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 22 2026Loading...

Russian Su-35 and Su-27 aircraft dangerously intercepted a British RC-135W reconnaissance plane over the Black Sea, coming within 6 meters. This incident, described by the UK Defence Ministry as the most perilous encounter since 2022, triggered emergency systems on the British aircraft. The interception is part of ongoing NATO reconnaissance efforts near Russian borders, aimed at gathering intelligence on Russian military operations in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Zelensky warned of a potential new Russian offensive from Belarus targeting northern Ukraine on May 20, 2023. He stated that Ukraine's military is aware of five operational plans being considered by Russia. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov indicated that Russia has not yet utilized all available military means in Ukraine. Ongoing military exercises between Belarus and Russia further heighten concerns about increased military coordination.

Turkey is procuring 100 naval drones for the Turkish Navy, aimed at enhancing its maritime capabilities in the Black Sea. This decision follows lessons learned from Ukraine's naval drone operations against Russia. The drones, produced by various Turkish defense teams, are intended for swarm attacks and asymmetric missions, complicating Russian naval movements in the region.

Alexandra ReevesThu May 21 2026Loading...

The Russian Strategic Rocket Forces successfully launched the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Dombarovsky on May 12, 2026. This marks the second successful test of the missile, which is intended to replace the aging RS-20V Voevoda. The missile is reported to have a range exceeding 35,000 kilometers and can carry multiple nuclear warheads. The test follows a series of failures and is a critical step in Russia's nuclear modernization efforts.

China and Russia criticized the U.S. Golden Dome missile defense system on May 20, 2026, viewing it as a threat to strategic stability. The system is characterized as a network of sensors that could increase the costs for China's missile forces to penetrate U.S. defenses. The report highlights differing concerns between the two nations regarding the implications of this system for their military strategies.

Li MinghuiThu May 21 2026Loading...

The new two-seat version of the Su-57 fighter jet, potentially named T-50D, has been unveiled and is currently undergoing ground taxi tests at Zhukovsky. This variant is intended for pilot training and may also serve combat roles, integrating with unmanned aerial vehicles for enhanced operational efficiency. The design features a tandem cockpit, improving visibility for the rear seat pilot.

The Russian Armed Forces conducted large-scale nuclear exercises from May 19 to 21, involving over 64,000 troops and 7,800 pieces of military equipment in Belarus and Russia. The exercises focused on the preparation and use of nuclear forces under conditions of aggression threat, including the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles. This operation serves as a significant political-military signal amid escalating tensions with NATO and Ukraine.

Russia launched its largest nuclear exercises in years, mobilizing nearly 65,000 troops and various military assets from May 19 to 21, 2024. The drills, which include live missile launches, are framed as a rehearsal for nuclear force preparation and involve coordination with Belarusian forces. This exercise is perceived as a strategic move to influence NATO decision-making amid rising tensions.

Russia conducted nuclear exercises involving 64,000 troops in May 2026, signaling to NATO and European capitals. The exercises included over 200 missile launchers, 140 aircraft, and 13 submarines, demonstrating military readiness. This event is framed as a response to Western support for Ukraine and coincides with President Putin's visit to China, emphasizing strategic partnerships.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 19 2026Loading...

The United Aircraft Corporation confirmed the maiden flight of the Su-57 prototype in a two-seat configuration on May 19, 2026, in Russia. This aircraft combines combat capabilities with training functions and is designed for managing operations involving both crewed and uncrewed aircraft. The two-seater is primarily aimed at export markets, particularly India, as Russia seeks to revitalize interest in its advanced fighter technology.

Russian forces maintain control over Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, employing drones and artillery to suppress Ukrainian positions and logistics. A 25-kilometer kill zone has been established, complicating Ukrainian operations. The report highlights the effective coordination of Russian infantry, drones, and artillery, indicating a shift in tactics. Logistical challenges are significant for both sides, particularly affecting Ukrainian capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 19 2026Loading...

On May 18, 2026, Russia expressed its readiness to enhance military-technical cooperation with Equatorial Guinea during a meeting in Moscow. The Equatorial Guinean foreign minister praised Russia's involvement in the Sahel, framing it as a stabilizing force. This cooperation aims to address Equatorial Guinea's defense needs, focusing on regime protection and maritime security, while positioning Russia as a key partner in the Gulf of Guinea.

Marie DuboisTue May 19 2026Loading...