Analysis & Reports

In 2026, the Russian military faces significant economic challenges as 400 oil wells have been closed, leading to a 10% reduction in oil processing. This decline is contributing to a federal budget deficit nearing $80 billion and labor shortages impacting military production. Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure are altering the cost dynamics of the ongoing conflict, indicating that the sustainability of the Russian military economy is under pressure.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 19 2026Loading...

Poland deployed four micro reconnaissance satellites on May 6, 2023, as part of its self-developed space satellite network for geospatial imaging. The satellites, developed by Iceye's Polish branch, enhance Poland's ISR capabilities and have demonstrated strong anti-jamming features. The Polish Ministry of Defense announced the successful deployment, which is part of a contract valued at approximately $235 million. Images of Russian military facilities were also released.

On May 18, 2026, Russian Armed Forces launched a large-scale attack involving 524 drones and 22 missiles targeting Ukraine, particularly affecting Dnipro and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The assault resulted in injuries to over 24 civilians, including children, and is part of an ongoing series of escalated strikes between the two nations. This operation highlights the increasing pressure on Ukrainian air defense systems.

Dmitri VolkovMon May 18 2026Loading...

Belarus and Russia are conducting nuclear weapons operational use exercises in Belarus, aimed at enhancing the readiness of Belarusian armed forces. The exercises involve Belarusian missile forces and air forces, focusing on the transportation of nuclear munitions from Russia. The Belarusian Defense Ministry stated that these exercises are part of a planned training framework and do not pose a threat to regional security.

On May 18, 2026, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence announced that its armed forces began nuclear drills in collaboration with Russian forces, focusing on mobility and concealment. The exercises involve missile troops and aviation, testing the deployment of nuclear munitions across Belarus. This development raises concerns for NATO regarding the potential for nuclear escalation in the region.

Alexandra ReevesMon May 18 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on the Angstrom plant in Zelenograd on May 16-17, 2023, targeting critical microelectronics production for precision weapons. This operation reflects a strategic shift towards disrupting Russian military logistics and industrial capabilities. Russian defense officials reported intercepting numerous drones, but the effectiveness of the strikes on high-value targets remains significant.

Dmitri VolkovMon May 18 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones conducted a large-scale attack on Russian territory, with 556 drones intercepted and destroyed by Russian air defenses over a nine-hour period. The strikes targeted critical infrastructure around Moscow, resulting in at least four fatalities and twelve injuries. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described the attacks as a justified response to recent Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 17 2026Loading...

A two-seat variant of Russia's Su-57 Felon fighter conducted ground taxi trials, confirmed by military aviation blogger Ilya Tumanov on May 16, 2023. The aircraft features an elongated fuselage for a second cockpit and is primarily intended for export. Algeria has become the first confirmed foreign operator of the Su-57, while Russia has faced losses of the aircraft due to drone strikes.

Ukrainian drone forces struck a Russian Svetlyak-class patrol boat in the Caspian Sea on May 17, 2026. The attack, executed by a Fire Point FP-1 drone, occurred in the port area of Kaspiisk, Dagestan, highlighting Ukraine's extended operational reach. This incident marks the third drone strike on Russian naval vessels in recent months, indicating a developing pattern of Ukrainian military operations in the region.

Ukraine launched over 130 drones in a major strike on Moscow overnight into May 17, targeting industrial facilities and causing significant disruptions, including the suspension of operations at all four major airports. The attack resulted in injuries to 12 individuals and fires at key industrial sites, reflecting Ukraine's strategic focus on degrading Russian military and industrial capabilities. This operation follows a week of intense Russian aerial bombardment against Ukraine.

Russia is developing specialized 5.45mm multi-warhead ammunition for AK-12 and AK-74 rifles to effectively target FPV drones. This initiative aims to enhance the capabilities of infantry against drone threats, contrasting with Western efforts focused on automated fire control systems. The Russian solution is viewed as more practical and cost-effective for widespread military use.

The Russian Navy has commenced the construction of the 9th Project 22350 frigate, named after Admiral Felix Gromov, at the Northern Shipyard in Saint Petersburg on May 14, 2023. This frigate is designed for long-range missions and is equipped with advanced weaponry, including Kalibr cruise missiles and Zircon hypersonic missiles. The Russian Navy emphasizes the urgent need for such vessels to enhance its operational capabilities.

NATO conducted the Steadfast Deterrence 2026 exercise in Norway, involving 32,500 personnel, to enhance collective defense planning. Concurrently, the U.S. Army's Sword 26 exercise tested warfighting capabilities across Germany, Poland, and other nations. The UK and EU are set to sign a Security and Defence Partnership on 19 May 2026, marking a significant step in post-Brexit defense cooperation.

Alexandra ReevesSat May 16 2026Loading...

On October 15, Russian forces struck Ukrainian military positions in Donetsk Oblast and destroyed an ammunition depot in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. During the same timeframe, Russian air defense systems intercepted over 50 Ukrainian drones in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kaluga Oblasts. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted key Russian assets, including oil refineries and ammunition depots.

Russian forces conducted a large-scale airstrike on a residential building in Kyiv on May 14-15, 2026, killing at least 24 people, including children. In response, Ukraine launched drone strikes targeting Russian infrastructure, including an oil refinery in Ryazan, resulting in additional casualties. This escalation marks a significant increase in military operations and complicates ongoing diplomatic efforts for peace negotiations.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 15 2026Loading...

Russia is upgrading the Tu-160M Blackjack bomber with advanced technologies and armament, including up to 6 Kh-55SM cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The upgrades aim to enhance the bomber's capabilities while the PAK DA stealth bomber is delayed. Rostec plans to produce 2 new Tu-160Ms annually, targeting a fleet of 10 by 2027.

Russia has designed the Su-75 Checkmate stealth fighter to compete with the F-35 but has not produced any operational units. The aircraft's specifications suggest potential capabilities, yet it faces significant production challenges and lacks detailed information on its operational effectiveness. Concerns remain about Russia's ability to create a competitive 5th-generation fighter force.

Ukraine launched a large-scale retaliatory strike campaign overnight into May 15, targeting Russian military and industrial infrastructure across multiple regions. Key strikes included the Ryazan oil refinery, resulting in casualties, and attacks on military assets such as aircraft and air defense systems in Crimea and Luhansk Oblast. This operation aimed to disrupt Russian military capabilities and logistics.

Japan's government revised its defense export policy on April 21, 2026, allowing the export of lethal defense equipment. On May 5, Japan agreed to transfer destroyers to the Philippines, marking a significant shift in military cooperation. Concurrently, Russia's Pacific Fleet conducted unusual movements through the Tsushima Strait, while North Korea announced plans for new military capabilities, including a long-range artillery system.

Tanaka TakashiFri May 15 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones attacked the city of Ryazan on May 15, resulting in 3 deaths and 12 injuries. Multiple high-rise residential buildings were damaged, and an industrial facility was struck. There has been no response from Ukrainian officials regarding the incident.