Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
Collapse of a Military and Police Office Building in Russia, 3 Dead
On October 17, a military police office building collapsed in Shyrokyne, Leningrad Oblast, resulting in three fatalities. Rescue teams discovered the bodies of the victims in the debris. The cause of the collapse is currently under investigation, and a criminal case has been initiated by the Russian Federal Investigative Committee.
From 45 to 1,000: The Rarely Mentioned Data Gap Behind China's Nuclear Warhead Expansion
China is reportedly expanding its nuclear arsenal, with projections indicating a rise to 1000 warheads by 2030. A 2.75 magnitude earthquake detected near Lop Nur in 2020 has raised suspicions of a nuclear test, although evidence remains inconclusive. The US has expressed concerns over China's nuclear capabilities and testing practices, particularly regarding the use of decoupling technology to obscure test yields.
Li MinghuiWed Feb 18 2026Loading...The Russian and Ukrainian Armies Continue to Launch Attacks Against Each Other
On October 17, Russian forces conducted large-scale strikes on Ukrainian military and energy infrastructure, impacting 12 regions. Ukrainian forces responded by destroying a Russian Ka-27 helicopter in Crimea and targeting a chemical plant in Krasnodar Krai. Russia's air defense intercepted multiple Ukrainian drones and precision-guided bombs during these operations.
Russia’s New MiG-35 Fighter Will Never Beat the U.S. Air Force’s Stealth F-22 or F-35
The Russian Air Force's MiG-35 fighter jet program has faced significant challenges, with under ten units produced and limited support from the military. Originally ordered in 2017, the aircraft is scheduled for delivery in 2027 but struggles to compete in the export market against established Western fighters. The MiG-35's lack of stealth capabilities and ongoing development issues hinder its operational effectiveness in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
On the Eve of a New Round of Trilateral Talks, Russian and Ukrainian Forces Continue to Strike Each Other
Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukrainian energy facilities on February 16-17, 2023, using 400 drones and 29 missiles, resulting in 9 injuries. Ukrainian forces reported mutual engagements with Russian troops, including the capture of three villages by Russia. The attacks prompted calls from Ukrainian President Zelensky for increased sanctions against Russia and continued military support from allies.
Russia Goes to Geneva with an Exhausted Army — What Lies Behind the Kremlin's Negotiating Position
Russia is advancing with a depleted 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Zybyne, Kharkiv Oblast, as of February 2026. The Kremlin announced that Vladimir Medinsky will lead negotiations in Geneva starting February 17, aiming for terms that suggest the capitulation of Ukraine. Despite capturing territory, the Russian army operates at only 40% personnel strength, indicating systemic exhaustion. Concurrently, Ukraine has reported extensive damage to its energy infrastructure.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 17 2026Loading...Putin Could End the Ukraine War But Won’t. That Means a Coup In Russia Is Possible
Putin is contemplating declaring victory in the Ukraine war, holding territories in Crimea, Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. However, he faces significant political constraints that may prevent this, leading to increased elite resistance and the potential for a coup. As the war continues, the stability of his regime is increasingly in question.
Russian military aircraft maker reports heavy financial losses
TANTK Beriev reported a net loss exceeding 5 billion rubles in 2025, reflecting a significant decline in revenue and rising debt. The company, a key player in Russia's military aviation sector, has faced operational disruptions due to multiple Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, impacting its production capabilities. Its liabilities to creditors have increased, indicating financial strain.
European Machines at Factory No. 9 — How Russia Overcomes the Main Bottleneck of Its Defense Industry
Russia is modernizing Factory No. 9 in Yekaterinburg by acquiring 22 industrial machines from Europe and Taiwan to enhance its artillery production capabilities. This effort aims to increase the output of artillery barrels and components for the Coalition system, addressing a critical shortfall in military production. The reliance on foreign technology underscores vulnerabilities in Russia's defense industry amid ongoing sanctions.
Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 14 2026Loading...Moscow institutionalizes its presence in the Sahel — strategic agreement with Ouagadougou and AES ministerial format
On February 12, 2026, Russia formalized its military presence in the Sahel by signing a strategic agreement with Burkina Faso, focusing on security and counter-terrorism. This agreement marks a transition from private military contractor involvement to state-level cooperation, with Russian forces now operating under a formal diplomatic framework. The presence of Russian military personnel is increasing in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, as Moscow seeks to enhance its influence in the region amid a withdrawal of Western forces.
Marie DuboisSat Feb 14 2026Loading...
From Human Recognition to Integrated Radar Vision: Experience Smart Border Defense at "Dongji Outpost"
The People's Armed Forces deployed advanced surveillance technology at Dongji Post during the Spring Festival. This includes 100% video surveillance coverage and the use of drones for reconnaissance. The integration of radar and optical systems enhances target identification and response capabilities. The unit has achieved notable success in border defense competitions, reflecting improved operational effectiveness.
The F-35 Stealth Fighter Isn’t Worth $2,000,000,000,000
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) deployed its F-35I Adir fleet to conduct airstrikes against Iranian targets during a 12-day conflict. The operations involved beyond-visual-range strikes and drone swarms, highlighting a shift towards distributed and unmanned warfare. Despite the F-35I's use, critics argue that it was not the decisive weapon and emphasize the need for a focus on drone technology instead of costly manned aircraft.
Four individuals involved in the attack on the Russian general will be prosecuted.
Four individuals involved in the attack on Russian General Alekseev are to be prosecuted for terrorism charges, as announced by the Russian Federal Investigative Committee on February 13. The attack, which occurred on February 6, aimed to intimidate the public and destabilize the government. Alekseev was shot but has since undergone successful surgery and is in stable condition.
Records Broken: Russia’s K-222 ‘Titanium’ Nuclear Submarine Was the Fastest Sub Ever
The K-222 Papa-class submarine, built in Severodvinsk during the 1960s, achieved a record speed of 44.7 knots, making it the fastest submarine ever. Designed to evade American anti-submarine efforts, it was equipped with Starbright cruise missiles and featured a titanium hull. However, its high speed resulted in significant noise, complicating its operational effectiveness. The submarine was retired in 1988 and scrapped in 2010.
Forget the “Human Wave” Headlines: North Korea’s Real Weapon in Ukraine Is Artillery
North Korean troops provided artillery support and drone reconnaissance to Russia in Ukraine, transitioning from infantry roles to logistical and industrial support. Approximately 11,000 troops were deployed to Kursk in late 2024, supplying millions of artillery shells and munitions. This support is crucial for sustaining Russia's firepower in an artillery-dominant conflict.
Russian troops criticize local Starlink analog
Russian troops criticized the performance of domestically developed satellite communication systems, specifically the Yamal-601 and Yamal-602 satellites, citing issues with setup, reliability, and cost. Reports indicate that these systems fail to match the performance of SpaceX's Starlink, leading to operational challenges in battlefield communications. Concerns were raised about the equipment's size, visibility, and unstable connections during adverse weather conditions.
Russian Media: Russian Army Reports First Interception of Ukraine's "Cheap Version of the 'Tomahawk'"
On February 12, the Russian Army intercepted five Ukrainian 'Flamingo' cruise missiles over Volgograd Oblast. This marks the first reported destruction of this missile type by Russian forces. The missiles were likely intercepted while en route to Kotelubansk, with debris falling in a military target area. The 'Flamingo' missiles are noted to be a copy of the British FP-5 missile, capable of carrying significant payloads and equipped with advanced navigation systems.
219 Drones and 24 Missiles in One Night — Russia's Massive Attacks on Ukraine's Energy as a System of Depleting Air Defense
On February 12, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive combined strike involving 219 drones and 24 ballistic missiles against energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Odessa, and Dnipro. This operation aimed to exhaust Ukrainian air defense capabilities while targeting civilian heating during extreme cold. The cost-effectiveness of the Russian strategy highlights a significant disparity in military expenditure between the two sides.
Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 13 2026Loading...Where Will Russia Find People for War in 2026 — Budget Crisis and Shift to Coercion
By 2026, the Russian Army will transition to coercive recruitment methods due to budget constraints, requiring 25,000 to 40,000 new contract soldiers monthly. Regions such as Buryatia and Tatarstan will likely face increased recruitment pressures, while Moscow and Saint Petersburg remain relatively insulated. The reliance on financial incentives has diminished, leading to a potential second wave of mobilization as military losses continue to rise.
Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 13 2026Loading...
Why Trump’s Push for Greenland is Forcing U.S. Allies to Consider Their Own Nukes
U.S. allies are increasingly reconsidering their reliance on the American nuclear umbrella as President Trump's foreign policy shifts towards hostility, particularly with threats regarding Greenland. This instability may lead allies in Europe and Asia to pursue their own nuclear deterrents, breaking the longstanding defense-for-nonproliferation bargain. The situation reflects a significant change in international relations and military alliances.
