Analysis & Reports

USS Abraham Lincoln docked in Thailand on September 2, 2023, allowing approximately 5,000 crew members to rest after nearly 9 months at sea. The U.S. Navy faces significant logistical challenges in the Middle East, including the destruction of a key supply base and the need for extensive resupply operations over long distances. Currently, two aircraft carriers and twelve destroyers are involved in operations in the region.

Japan's government is advancing a significant increase in military spending, with a projected budget of approximately 8.89 trillion yen for 2027. This includes plans to enhance military capabilities through AI integration and the development of new weapon systems, amidst pressure from the U.S. to raise military expenditure to 3.5% of GDP. The government is also revising its security policies to support this militarization effort.

General Yang Zhi-bin of the Eastern Theater Command met with Admiral Paparo of the U.S. Pacific Command in Victoria from August 31 to September 2, 2023. This marked the first direct contact between U.S. and Chinese military leadership in two years, focusing on communication channels and risk management. The meeting did not address specific regional tensions, emphasizing the importance of dialogue over resolving differences.

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The U.S. Air Force increased its order of F-15EX Eagle II fighters to 267, citing production delays and rising costs. The first F-15EX arrived at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan, on August 28, 2023, but further deliveries are delayed, complicating the replacement of older F-15C/D aircraft. The program faces significant logistical challenges and concerns about the aircraft's relevance in modern warfare.

China is developing the H-20 stealth bomber, which has a range of 10,000 kilometers and can carry nuclear weapons. However, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) relies on existing missile systems, such as the DF-26, to target US military bases in the Western Pacific. The H-20 is seen as a redundant capability, and China faces technical challenges in its development.

The United States and South Korea have established a deterrence doctrine against North Korean nuclear attacks, promising a decisive response. Concerns arise regarding U.S. commitment to this deterrence amid North Korea's expanding nuclear capabilities. The U.S. military is developing flexible response options to address potential North Korean aggression, emphasizing the need for strategic clarity and alliance cohesion.

Canada diversified its defense procurement by purchasing an Arctic radar system from Australia and negotiating for Saab's GlobalEye surveillance aircraft, while maintaining integration with NORAD. This decision reflects a strategic shift away from reliance on American defense manufacturers amid political tensions. The Royal Canadian Air Force and U.S. Air Force conducted integrated intercept scenarios during Exercise Amalgam Dart from August 24 to September 1, 2023, demonstrating ongoing military cooperation.

Taiwan increased its defense budget to NT$1 trillion for 2026, adding NT$145.7 billion to enhance military capabilities. The budget focuses on acquiring more drones and munitions, but experts warn it may not significantly improve Taiwan's wartime logistics or combat readiness against larger Chinese forces. Beijing perceives this budget increase as inadequate for Taiwan's defense needs in a potential conflict.

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China is rapidly modernizing its military, focusing on the development of the J-20 and J-35 stealth fighters equipped with advanced long-range missiles like the PL-15. These advancements provide China with a significant edge over U.S. air capabilities, particularly in beyond visual range engagements. The Chinese military's ability to produce these systems in large numbers further enhances their strategic position.

Taiwan's cabinet proposed a supplementary defense budget of T$145.7bn ($4.59bn) for 2026 to enhance its military capabilities in response to ongoing pressure from China. The budget specifically allocates funds for drones and missiles, indicating a focus on strengthening Taiwan's defense posture.

USS Abraham Lincoln completed a 286-day deployment and docked in Thailand on September 2, 2018, after enduring 264 days without a port call. The ship's condition showed significant rust and deterioration, reflecting the strain on the crew, who faced declining morale and mental health issues during the extended deployment. The Navy is investigating a recent suicide attempt among the crew, highlighting the challenges faced during operations in the region.

China, Russia, and Mongolia conducted a joint military exercise named 'Border Cooperation-2026' in Manzhouli from September 2-3, 2023, focusing on counter-terrorism and border security. The exercise involved real-time coordination, utilizing drones and helicopters for surveillance and air support, and successfully demonstrated enhanced collaborative capabilities among the three nations' border defense forces.

Shengying Technology has introduced the H-07 interceptor drone in China, designed to shoot down other drones. The drone claims a top speed of 320 km/h and a flight range of 15 km. However, its specifications and deployment status remain unverified by independent sources.

U.S. officials alleged that COSCO vessels used covert equipment to collect military communications intelligence near target nations' coasts on September 1, 2026. In response, China's embassy denied these allegations, calling them baseless. The report highlights concerns about the integration of commercial shipping into military intelligence operations, suggesting a potential shift in how intelligence is gathered at sea.

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On September 3, two historical maps illustrating Japan's military ambitions during its invasion of China were donated to the Zhijiang Anti-Japanese War Memorial Museum in Hunan. These maps, created during the late 19th century, detail strategic coastal locations and routes, indicating Japan's premeditated plans for military action against China. The donation underscores the historical context of Japan's military strategies and the importance of remembering this history in contemporary discussions about national security.

Russia condemned the upcoming joint military exercises, 'Shield of the East', involving Japan, the U.S., and Australia, scheduled from September 8 to 24, 2023. The exercises will see the participation of 3700 personnel and the deployment of the U.S. 'Type 12' missile system, which Russia claims poses a threat to its national security. Russia has lodged a formal protest with Japan regarding these military activities near its borders.

South Korea, the U.S., and Japan are proceeding with their joint military exercise 'Freedom Shield' from September 7-11, 2023, in the waters east and south of Jeju. This decision comes despite protests from North Korea, which claims the exercise poses a threat. The exercise is a routine defensive drill aimed at countering North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.

The 'Super Garuda Shield' multinational military exercise commenced in West Java, Indonesia, on August 31, involving 4700 personnel from 15 nations, including the U.S. and Indonesia. The exercise will run until September 11 and features modern tactical training, including defenses against drone attacks. This year marks the first participation of Japan and India, reflecting an expansion of military cooperation in the region.

General Yang Zhibin led a delegation from the People's Liberation Army to attend the 2026 Asia-Pacific Defense Chiefs Conference in Victoria, Canada, on September 4, 2023. During the conference, China presented its stance on maintaining regional peace and stability and proposed enhanced defense cooperation among regional nations.

The Chinese and Laotian Armed Forces will conduct a joint humanitarian medical rescue exercise named 'Peace Train-2026' in Laos in September 2026. The exercise will focus on international humanitarian medical rescue in response to super typhoon disasters, including joint search and rescue, patient transport, health prevention, and psychological rescue activities. This marks the sixth iteration of this joint exercise series.