Analysis & Reports

Burkinabè and Malian government forces, along with allied militias, have killed more civilians than jihadist groups in 2025, with 523 and 928 civilian deaths respectively. The presence of Russian mercenaries has exacerbated the situation, leading to mass executions and human rights violations. Jihadist groups like JNIM are expanding their influence into coastal West Africa, increasing attacks and destabilizing the region further.

Marie DuboisSat Apr 04 2026Loading...

Russian forces in the Sahel, including approximately 2,500 fighters from the Wagner Group, are facing a crisis due to rising civilian casualties and insurgency. Operations have failed to stabilize the region, with violence against civilians increasing. The situation has led to a shift in geopolitical dynamics, with Turkey providing drones to local regimes and other nations like China and the UAE increasing their influence through security agreements and investments.

Marie DuboisSat Apr 04 2026Loading...

Russia is mobilizing over 400,000 additional troops for a Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, while Ukraine's counteroffensive has disrupted these plans. Ukrainian forces regained significant territory in February 2026, forcing Russia to shift to defensive operations. Concurrently, Russia's aerial campaign has intensified, utilizing advanced drone technology to target Ukrainian infrastructure. Belarus is also enhancing its military presence near the Ukrainian border.

Dmitri VolkovSat Apr 04 2026Loading...

Iranian television falsely claimed that wreckage found near Saveh belonged to a downed U.S. F-16, but it was actually debris from an Iranian ballistic missile that malfunctioned. The wreckage, which includes parts of a missile body, was confirmed not to contain any components of a fighter aircraft. This incident followed an unrelated emergency landing of a U.S. fighter jet due to technical issues, with no injuries reported.

The U.S. Navy conducted offensive operations against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz but had to withdraw due to threats from Iranian naval drones and missiles. The Iranian Navy is currently conducting military drills with Russian and Chinese naval forces. The capabilities of Chinese missiles, such as the DF-21D and DF-26, pose significant risks to U.S. naval operations, raising concerns about the effectiveness of U.S. deterrence strategies in the region.

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, officially withdrew from ECOWAS on March 30, 2026, marking a significant shift in regional geopolitics. The AES established a joint military force to combat jihadist groups and announced the formation of anti-terrorist self-defense groups in Niger. The alliance has also pivoted its military cooperation from France to Russia, reflecting a broader ideological shift among its member states.

Marie DuboisFri Apr 03 2026Loading...

Government forces in Mali and Burkina Faso have killed more civilians than jihadist groups, with 1,255 civilian deaths attributed to them from January 2023 to August 2025. The use of armed drones by the Malian army has increased, resulting in significant civilian casualties. The rise of ISIS in the Sahel is linked to the power vacuums created by military coups, exacerbating the security crisis in the region.

Marie DuboisFri Apr 03 2026Loading...

The Unified Force of the Sahel States (AES) launched in December 2025, comprising 6,000 soldiers from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, aims to enhance regional security. Based in Niamey, the force operates under a centralized command led by General Daouda Traoré. Despite its establishment, the AES faces significant internal challenges, including ongoing insurgencies and the need for self-financing to maintain operational autonomy.

Marie DuboisFri Apr 03 2026Loading...

On April 2, 2023, armed assailants attacked a hospital in White Nile State, Sudan, resulting in the deaths of 10 hospital staff members, including medical personnel. Additionally, 22 civilians were reported injured. The Sudan Doctors Network condemned the attack, attributing it to the Rapid Support Forces, who have yet to respond to these claims. This incident occurs amid ongoing armed conflict in Sudan, which has led to significant civilian casualties.

The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) attacked a village in Mambasa, Ituri Province, on April 1, 2023, resulting in at least 70 fatalities. The assault caused panic among residents, prompting some to flee their homes. The ADF has been active in the region since the late 1990s, frequently targeting both local military forces and civilians. The security situation in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo remains critical due to the presence of various armed groups.

The U.S. Army awarded a contract worth approximately $41 million to Colt's Manufacturing for the production of M4 and M4A1 carbines for Foreign Military Sales to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq, North Macedonia, and Tunisia. The contract is set to run through March 31, 2031, supporting interoperability with U.S. and NATO-aligned forces and contributing to the modernization of ground forces in the recipient countries.

U.S. forces conducted 49 airstrikes in Somalia in 2026, targeting Islamic militant groups such as ISIS and al-Shabaab. The most recent strike occurred near Kismayo, approximately 82 miles northwest of the city. This year's operations are on track to match or exceed the 124 strikes carried out in 2025, reflecting a significant escalation in military activity against these groups.

Disruptions in maritime chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, are reshaping global trade and security dynamics. The U.S. Navy and allied forces are adjusting their maritime patrols in response to increased risks in the Bab al-Mandeb and Black Sea regions. A significant rise in traffic through Istanbul is anticipated, while the Panama Canal faces potential disruptions. The interconnected nature of these chokepoints necessitates coordinated military and logistical responses to maintain stability.

USS Gerald R. Ford is undergoing maintenance in Croatia after a fire incident and is expected to achieve a record deployment of 11 months. The carrier was previously stationed in the Red Sea supporting Operation Epic Fury. USS George H.W. Bush has also departed for deployment, potentially to replace or support the Ford in the region.

The U.S. Navy reactivated and modernized its four Iowa-class battleships during the Korean War and again in the 1980s to counter the Soviet naval threat. These ships, equipped with advanced weaponry including Tomahawk and Harpoon missiles, played crucial roles in naval operations. Following the Cold War, they were permanently decommissioned and converted into museum ships to preserve their legacy.

China's People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has surpassed 370 ships, rapidly modernizing and expanding its capabilities, particularly in the Western Pacific. The U.S. Navy, while still superior in certain aspects, is projected to decline to 287 ships by FY2026, facing challenges in shipbuilding capacity. This shift poses significant strategic challenges in the Indo-Pacific region as China enhances its naval power projection.

The Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) has evolved into a transcontinental threat, conducting a significant attack on the international airbase in Niamey on January 30, 2026. Concurrently, the JNIM group has maintained a blockade on fuel supplies to Bamako since September 2025. In response, the CEDEAO has announced plans to deploy 2,000 soldiers by the end of 2026 to combat armed groups in the region. The Sahel continues to be the global epicenter of terrorism, with ISSP's activities posing a significant challenge to regional stability.

Marie DuboisWed Apr 01 2026Loading...

The U.S. Navy currently operates 11 aircraft carriers, which is insufficient to address simultaneous crises in the Pacific, Middle East, and Red Sea. The growing threat from China, particularly its expanding carrier fleet, and ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine highlight the need for a larger carrier presence. U.S. military leaders emphasize the importance of carrier strike groups for deterrence and operational readiness.

NATO intercepted four Iranian ballistic missiles over Turkey between March 4 and March 30, 2026, utilizing U.S. Navy destroyers equipped with SM-3 interceptors. An additional MIM-104 Patriot battery was deployed to Turkey to bolster defenses. This series of interceptions underscores vulnerabilities in Turkey's air defense and has catalyzed discussions on increased European defense spending. The situation reflects a significant military operational response to the Iranian missile threat.

Alexandra ReevesWed Apr 01 2026Loading...

The Israeli Air Force conducted an airstrike on March 31 in Maharat, Iran, resulting in the death of the head of the engineering department of the Lebanese unit of the Quds Force. This operation was carried out based on intelligence reports.