Analysis & Reports

On the 12th, Russian forces launched large-scale strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and drone production sites. In response, Ukrainian forces targeted a military ammunition depot in Volgograd Oblast and a military-industrial enterprise in Tambov Oblast using Flamingo missiles.

Russia's United Aircraft Corporation delivered a new batch of Su-57 Felon stealth fighters to the Aerospace Forces, featuring enhanced avionics and weapons integration. This delivery is part of Russia's efforts to modernize its tactical fleet, which is largely reliant on older Soviet-era aircraft. Despite international sanctions limiting production, the Su-57 is considered crucial for maintaining a credible fifth-generation capability in the face of NATO advancements.

Rostec delivered a new batch of upgraded BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles to the Russian Ministry of Defense in January, exceeding shipment targets by 40 percent. The vehicles feature enhancements in combat effectiveness and protection, including modern electronic warfare systems and improved armor. Rostec continues to modernize the BMP-3 based on operational experience from the war in Ukraine, despite reports of significant losses of this vehicle type during the conflict.

Ukrainian Defense Forces struck a major Russian ammunition storage site in Kotluban, Volgograd Region, on February 12 using FP-5 "Flamingo" cruise missiles. The attack resulted in powerful explosions and secondary detonations, despite Russian claims of interception. Local reports confirmed significant damage and a fire at the facility, which is vital for Russian military logistics.

Russia conducted a large-scale airstrike on multiple Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Odesa, on February 11-12, 2023. The attack involved 25 missiles and 219 drones, resulting in 2 fatalities and over 10 injuries. Significant damage occurred to energy infrastructure, particularly in Odesa, leaving approximately 300,000 people without water and electricity. Ukrainian air defense managed to intercept most of the incoming threats.

Construction of infrastructure for the 'Oreshnik' missile system was observed at the Krichiv-6 airfield in Belarus on February 9, 2026. The Russian Armed Forces are preparing for the deployment of 4-6 units, despite currently having only 3-4 systems available. This development indicates a strategic move to enhance military presence in Belarus and signal political integration with the country.

Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 12 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian military ammunition depot in Kotluban on February 12, causing an explosion and fire. The Russian governor reported the incident, indicating a risk of further explosions, leading to the evacuation of nearby residents.

Russia continues to perceive the U.S. as its main global adversary, engaging in talks aimed at exploiting changes in U.S. administration to restore bilateral relations. This strategy may facilitate Russian espionage and influence operations while eroding U.S. international influence. The Estonian intelligence report emphasizes the deepening cooperation between China and Russia, framing the conflict in Ukraine as a civilizational struggle against the West led by Washington.

On November 11, Russian forces conducted strikes on 141 Ukrainian military targets, including energy and transportation infrastructure. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd and military supply depots in Crimea and Zaporizhzhia. Additionally, Russian air defense systems reported the downing of 458 drones.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov criticized the U.S. for attempting to involve China in new nuclear arms control negotiations while excluding the UK and France. He emphasized that Russia respects China's self-defense nuclear strategy. The New START treaty expired on October 5, 2023, leaving the U.S. and Russia without a bilateral arms control framework. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that nuclear arms control is now a multilateral issue, implicating China as a key player.

Thermobaric weapons have been utilized by the U.S., Russia, and Israel in various conflicts, including recent reports of their use in Gaza. These weapons, known for their devastating effects, have evolved from World War II designs to modern munitions like the GBU-43/B MOAB. The U.S. military has employed them in significant battles, while allegations of their use against civilian populations raise concerns about potential war crimes.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Russia will adhere to the New START treaty's restrictions on nuclear weapons if the United States continues to comply. This statement was made during a speech in Moscow on February 11, 2023. The New START treaty, signed in 2010, aims to limit the number of nuclear warheads and delivery systems between the two nations, with an extension valid until February 2026.

Russia's S-500 missile system, designed to target stealth aircraft like the F-22 and F-35, has underperformed in combat, failing to intercept missiles in Crimea and sustaining damage from a Ukrainian drone. The system's capabilities are being marketed to foreign buyers, but its battlefield performance raises doubts about its effectiveness.

Russia is reorganizing its military to focus on drone warfare and has significantly increased its ammunition production, while Estonia is enhancing its defense capabilities with new drone technology. The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service reports that Russia is not expected to attack NATO member states in the next two years, but is preparing for future conflicts. The Baltic state is investing in unmanned systems to counter potential threats from Russia's growing military capabilities.

Russia has concentrated 15 Su-57 stealth fighter jets at Dzyomgi air base in Khabarovsk, approximately 280 kilometers from the Chinese border, as confirmed by satellite imagery dated February 9, 2024. The base also hosts additional aircraft, including Su-35S fighters and MiG-31BM interceptors. This deployment is believed to enhance force protection and support ongoing technical operations for the Su-57.

Russia has expanded production of artillery barrels and tank guns at Plant No. 9 in Yekaterinburg, utilizing European machinery. This modernization addresses the rapid wear of artillery during combat in Ukraine. The facility is set to produce components for the 152 mm 2A88 artillery system and has seen increased production of mortar rounds and artillery shells for 2024 and 2025.

Russian President Putin emphasized the critical role of diplomacy in ensuring national security during a speech on February 10. He stated that Russia will continue to utilize all diplomatic resources to create a favorable external environment for its development. Putin also highlighted the importance of strengthening relationships with CIS countries and promoting a multipolar world order based on international law.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is willing to seek dialogue to resolve the Ukraine issue during a speech in Moscow on February 10, 2023. He emphasized the importance of building a multipolar world and maintaining strategic partnerships with countries such as China and India.

Armenia acquired V-BAT drones from the U.S. as part of a security partnership, confirmed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during a visit by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance. The V-BAT system is intended for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, enhancing Armenia's military capabilities. Specific details regarding the number of drones and contract value were not disclosed.

Slovakia's state-owned defense company ZŤS Špeciál signed a contract to supply approximately 300 AM-120 automatic 120mm mortar systems to Azerbaijan. The deal, valued at $250 million, includes an initial delivery of 96 mortars, with production starting immediately. Azerbaijan is also exploring a production license for local manufacturing of the system, which features an automated loading mechanism and is mounted on a heavy truck chassis for enhanced crew protection.