Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian forces conducted 48 fire missions in January 2026 targeting Russian oil and gas infrastructure as part of the DeepStrike campaign. This resulted in a 19% reduction in Russian oil refining output, with direct losses exceeding $1.3 billion in 2025. The campaign has significantly impacted Russia's ability to sustain its military operations, as 42% of its refining infrastructure has been under attack.

Alexandra ReevesTue Feb 10 2026Loading...

Russia's military has started receiving new satellite internet terminals to replace blocked Starlink equipment. This transition involves domestic providers using the Yamal and Express satellite systems, following a disruption in command-and-control capabilities. The new antennas are larger and more visible, indicating a significant shift in military communications strategy.

Russia integrated two newly built Tu-160M strategic bombers into its inventory between late 2025 and early 2026. The Tu-160M, capable of cruising at Mach 2 and launching Kh-101 cruise missiles, serves as an interim solution while the PAK DA stealth bomber program faces delays. This move reflects Russia's need to maintain long-range strike capabilities amid industrial challenges.

Russia's defense industry delivered a batch of upgraded Su-57 fighter aircraft to the Ministry of Defense. The aircraft, accepted by technical personnel, underwent factory testing and were subsequently tested by pilots from the Aerospace Forces. The upgrades enhance avionics and weapons integration, expanding the aircraft's operational capabilities. The Su-57 has been actively used in military operations, including the conflict in Ukraine.

Russian forces attacked energy and transportation infrastructure supporting Ukrainian troops and controlled two settlements in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian forces reported 123 battles, primarily in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian air defense intercepted multiple HIMARS rockets, Neptune missiles, and drones during this period.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov warned that if European countries prepare for war and attack Russia, the response will not be limited to special military actions but will involve a complete military response. He emphasized that Russia has no plans to attack Europe and criticized certain European leaders for escalating tensions.

Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that the U.S. has proposed negotiations for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia before June 2023, coinciding with the U.S. midterm elections. Zelensky confirmed Ukraine's willingness to participate in talks in the U.S. amid concerns about potential U.S. pressure on Ukraine regarding territorial issues. The situation remains complex as both sides continue to negotiate amidst ongoing military actions.

Armenia publicly displayed new air defense and artillery systems acquired from India during an official demonstration. The showcased equipment included the Akash-1S missile system, Pinaka multiple launch rocket systems, and 155mm artillery platforms. These acquisitions are part of Armenia's efforts to enhance its military capabilities and reduce reliance on Russian arms suppliers.

A suspect with dual Russian-Ukrainian citizenship was arrested in the UAE following the attack on Russian General Vladimir Alekseyev in Moscow on February 6, 2023. Two other suspects have been charged, while a female suspect has fled to Ukraine and is wanted internationally. The incident is characterized as a response from Ukrainian terrorists against the ongoing conflict negotiations.

The Russian Navy is experiencing a severe crisis, with significant personnel losses and operational failures exposed by the Ukraine conflict. The Black Sea Fleet has retreated from Crimea to Novorossiysk following the sinking of the Moskva and other vessels. Personnel numbers for elite units have drastically decreased, reflecting systemic issues in training and equipment maintenance. Ukrainian forces have effectively targeted and damaged key naval assets, further degrading Russia's maritime capabilities.

Russia has introduced the UMPB-5 winged glide bomb, an upgraded version of the UMPK-500 guidance kit, enhancing its strike range and accuracy. The UMPB-5 can be deployed from aircraft outside air defense zones, while a powered variant, the UMPB-5R, boasts a range of up to 200 kilometers. These developments allow Russian forces to conduct strikes from safer distances, utilizing tactical aircraft like the Su-34.

Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev was shot three times outside his apartment in Moscow on February 6, 2024, in an assassination attempt that highlights ongoing power struggles within Russia's military intelligence. Two suspects have been detained, but the motive remains unclear, with speculation about internal factional payback or external threats. This incident underscores the instability within the GRU and raises concerns about the command structure as Russia prepares for a major military offensive.

Alexandra ReevesSun Feb 08 2026Loading...

Russia has introduced the Kaplya munition for FPV drones, designed to defeat armored vehicles with cope cage armor. The EFP warhead is intended to penetrate armor and neutralize nearby personnel. This development is part of a centralized supply effort to standardize drone armament across Russian forces, with additional munitions also being supplied.

Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeev survived an assassination attempt outside his home in Moscow on February 6. The Russian Investigative Committee classified the incident as an attempted murder, while Foreign Minister Lavrov described it as a terrorist act by Ukraine. Two suspects were detained in Dubai, raising questions about the security of Russian intelligence services and potential internal conflicts within the GRU and FSB.

Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 08 2026Loading...

The Russian Armed Forces plan to establish a new branch, the Unmanned Systems Troops (ВБС), comprising 87,000 personnel by February 2026. This formation will include one brigade, four regiments, and numerous battalions and companies, focusing on drone operations. However, concerns arise regarding the bureaucratic structure and the ability to recruit qualified personnel amidst existing shortages in the defense industry.

Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 07 2026Loading...

In 2025, Belarus adopted 16 new military products, indicating a shift towards deeper integration with the Russian defense industry. The Belarusian defense sector is increasingly reliant on foreign components, particularly from North Korea and China, raising concerns about its technological independence. The export of military products to 65 countries suggests Belarus is acting as an intermediary for Russian arms, further complicating its position amid sanctions.

Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 07 2026Loading...

The Russian defense industry is experiencing significant mobilization dynamics amid ongoing sanctions, with military spending projected to reach 13.5 trillion rubles by 2025. Despite employing 3.8 million workers, the sector faces structural challenges, including a decline in dual-use imports and financial difficulties. Plans for 2026 include the introduction of advanced systems like the Su-75 fighter and Sarmat ICBM, but the industry's long-term sustainability is in question due to component shortages and corruption issues.

Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 06 2026Loading...

Russia is expanding its military infrastructure along the Finnish border, notably at the Rybka military base and in Kandalaksha, with the reactivation of the 44th Army Corps and construction of new military units. This development, observed in February 2026, reflects a strategic shift in Russia's posture towards NATO, indicating long-term preparations for potential conflict. Russian officials have voiced concerns regarding NATO's presence, suggesting that this military buildup is part of a broader strategy.

Alexandra ReevesFri Feb 06 2026Loading...

An independent U.S. analyst, Decker Eveleth, rejected claims that Ukrainian missiles struck the Kapustin Yar missile test range in Russia, stating that satellite imagery shows no damage. He emphasized that the images cited as evidence were misinterpreted and that higher-resolution images taken later confirm the facility remains undamaged. This assessment challenges reports of successful Ukrainian strikes against Russian missile infrastructure.

The Russian Navy has faced severe losses, including the sinking of the Moskva and the destruction of several combatants, prompting a relocation of remaining forces to Novorossiysk. Personnel numbers in the Naval Infantry have decreased significantly, reflecting ongoing challenges in readiness and leadership. The fleet's vulnerabilities have been exposed by Ukrainian attacks, leading to a crisis in naval operations.