Analysis & Reports

On April 9, 2023, Russia transferred 1000 deceased military personnel to Ukraine, while Ukraine transferred 41 deceased personnel to Russia. This exchange was confirmed by Shamsail Saraliyev, the Deputy Chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the State Duma of Russia.

The Russian Navy is modernizing two Kirov-class battlecruisers, including the Admiral Nakhimov, which will be equipped with Zircon hypersonic missiles and S-400 air-defense systems. This modernization follows the sinking of the Moskva in 2022 and reflects a desire to restore national pride and military capability. The Kirov-class ships, originally commissioned during the Cold War, are among the largest surface combatants globally.

Ukrainian drones struck the Russian rail ferry Slavyanin on April 6, 2023, targeting a key logistical asset used to transport military supplies across the Kerch Strait into Crimea. This operation aimed to disrupt Russian military logistics, as the Slavyanin was the last ferry actively facilitating these movements. The strike follows previous damage to the ferry and highlights ongoing efforts by Ukraine to target Russian supply routes.

The Secure World Foundation reports that 13 nations are developing counterspace capabilities, with increasing jamming of GPS and satellite communications. Germany is notably expanding its military space program, while Russia and North Korea are actively jamming GPS signals. The US, Russia, and China possess significant electronic warfare capabilities, and there is a trend towards developing 'bodyguard' satellites to protect military assets.

Russian forces intensified their offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Pokrovsk, during April 2026, seizing multiple settlements. Ukrainian defenders executed precision strikes against Russian logistics and command posts, resulting in significant Russian casualties, including 1,230 personnel lost in a single day. The conflict has escalated, with both sides employing advanced military strategies and equipment.

Dmitri VolkovWed Apr 08 2026Loading...

Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) are redeploying elite units to Donetsk Oblast as of April 2026, reflecting a shift in military strategy due to significant personnel losses. The VDV's role has evolved from a strategic reserve to frontline infantry, while military cooperation with Belarus has intensified, including joint exercises and potential permanent basing. Ukrainian forces have regained territory, indicating improved operational capabilities, while Russia plans to target critical infrastructure in Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovTue Apr 07 2026Loading...

A newly identified Ukrainian sea drone was spotted during a strike attempt on Russia’s naval base at Novorossiysk. The drone, equipped with a remotely operated machine-gun mount, was destroyed by a Russian Lancet loitering munition before it could reach the port. This incident highlights the ongoing adaptation of Ukraine's naval drone capabilities in response to threats in contested waters.

A C-130 Hercules transport aircraft crashed in Colombia on March 23, 2023, resulting in at least 66 fatalities among the 128 people on board. This incident is the third significant crash of the C-130 model in five months, following similar accidents in Bolivia and Georgia. The aircraft, known for its durability, has been in service for over 60 years.

Russia has tested the Kuryer unmanned ground combat system equipped with the Bagunlnik-82 automated mortar module. The system features an automatic loading mechanism that allows for rapid firing without personnel exposure. This development is part of Russia's unmanned ground robotics program, aimed at enhancing operational capabilities while reducing crew vulnerability. The footage indicates that the system has reached a functional prototype stage capable of live fire.

Ukrainian defense forces struck the Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk on April 6, 2026, using drones to hit multiple locations within the facility. The attack has effectively halted export operations at this key Russian petroleum hub, causing significant damage to critical infrastructure, including Pier No. 1 and the SIKN control system. This operation targets Russia's revenue stream from oil exports, impacting its war funding.

Russia is developing the MiG-41 stealth fighter, intended to replace the MiG-31 and capable of intercepting hypersonic missiles. Reports indicate that development has begun, with operational capabilities expected by the late 2020s or 2030s. However, Russia's history of production challenges with advanced aircraft raises questions about the feasibility of producing the MiG-41 at scale.

Russian forces continued military operations in April 2026, claiming control over 99.84% of Luhansk Oblast while facing significant Ukrainian resistance. Ukrainian forces achieved an 89.9% success rate in intercepting Russian missiles and drones, undermining Russian strategic capabilities. NATO has increased its defensive measures along the eastern flank in response to the evolving security situation, while diplomatic efforts remain stalled.

Dmitri VolkovSun Apr 05 2026Loading...

On April 1-2, 2026, Russian forces launched 172 drones in a large-scale assault on Ukrainian territory, targeting civilian infrastructure in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa Oblast. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 147 drones, but 22 struck various targets. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces executed precision strikes in Crimea, destroying key military assets. The Kremlin also intensified its crackdown on VPNs to control information amid the escalating conflict.

Dmitri VolkovSun Apr 05 2026Loading...

On April 4, 2023, the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation (Rosatom) evacuated 198 personnel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant following an attack in the vicinity. The evacuation involved transporting staff by bus to the Iran-Armenia border, with plans to return to Russia from Yerevan. The incident resulted in the death of one Iranian citizen and raised concerns about the increasing risk of a nuclear accident.

NATO suspects Russian forces are behind recent attacks on Ukrainian grain ships in the Black Sea, prompting the deployment of a Maritime Task Force to secure shipping lanes. The MV Golden Horizon was damaged by an underwater explosion and ran aground in Romania. NATO is utilizing UUVs and drones to investigate the incidents and counter potential threats from hybrid UUV-mines. The situation poses significant risks to Ukraine's agricultural exports and global food supply.

The chairman of Russia’s state shipbuilding corporation announced that the Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia's only aircraft carrier, is likely to be sold or scrapped by July 2025. The ship has not been operational since its 2016-2017 deployment and has faced numerous setbacks during its overhaul. If scrapped, Russia will be the only permanent member of the UN Security Council without an operational aircraft carrier, marking a significant decline in its naval capabilities.

A Russian Su-30 fighter jet crashed in Crimea around 11:00 a.m. Moscow time during a scheduled training flight. Both crew members ejected safely and were recovered by a ground search-and-rescue team. The aircraft was flying without ammunition, and the incident contributes to the losses of Russia's Su-30 fleet amid ongoing military operations in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on Kirovske airfield in Crimea on April 2, 2023, destroying a Russian An-72P patrol aircraft and facilities for Orion drones. The operation was executed by the 1st Separate Center of the Unmanned Systems Forces in collaboration with Ukraine’s military intelligence agency. The strike utilized Ukrainian-made FP-2 systems.

Russia and Ukraine intensified their long-range strike operations in March 2023, with Russia conducting over 3,000 strikes and Ukraine exceeding 1,400 strikes targeting critical infrastructure. Notably, a record 948-drone attack by Russia occurred on March 23-24, while Ukrainian strikes disrupted 40% of Russia's crude export capacity. Both nations are increasingly relying on drone swarms and missile attacks, indicating a significant escalation in military operations.

Ukrainian forces attempted a breakthrough near Hryshyne on March 31, 2026, using up to four vehicles, including an M1A1 Abrams tank. Russian drone operators from the 'Rubikon' unit engaged and destroyed these vehicles, resulting in casualties among Ukrainian personnel. The 425th 'Skelia' Assault Regiment defended their actions as a successful counterattack, while public criticism arose regarding the tactics employed, which were likened to those of Russian forces. The incident highlights ongoing scrutiny of military operations under drone surveillance.