Analysis & Reports

Uzbekistan's armed forces conducted a live-fire air defense exercise using multiple Chinese-made surface-to-air missile systems, including the FD-2000B, KS-1C, and FM-90. The exercise focused on training crews in detection, tracking, and engagement of aerial threats through coordinated operations among the systems. This event highlights Uzbekistan's efforts to enhance its air defense capabilities against various airborne threats.

On February 6, the Russian Ministry of Defense successfully launched the Soyuz-2.1b rocket, deploying multiple spacecraft into their designated orbits. The launch and orbital insertion were executed as planned, with tracking conducted by the ground control system. Stable telemetry communication with the spacecraft has been established, and onboard systems are functioning normally.

On February 5, a deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Council stated that the termination of the New START treaty will not lead to a new arms race or nuclear war. He emphasized that the treaty has been ineffective in recent years and that both Russia and the U.S. will not exceed its limits for the foreseeable future, indicating a period of increasing uncertainty in global strategic nuclear forces.

The New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired, eliminating limits on their nuclear arsenals. President Trump called for a new nuclear agreement that includes China, which has declined to participate. Russia expressed regret over the treaty's end and stated it would maintain a responsible approach to nuclear stability. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military dialogue after a two-year suspension.

The New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired, eliminating limits on their nuclear arsenals. President Trump called for a new nuclear agreement that includes China, which has declined to participate. Russia expressed regret over the treaty's end and stated it would maintain a responsible approach to nuclear stability. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military dialogue after a two-year suspension.

The Russian Air Force has produced fewer than 25 Su-57 Felon stealth fighters, falling short of the planned 76 due to production delays and challenges. This significant numerical deficit compared to Western air forces raises concerns about the aircraft's operational relevance. The Su-57's capabilities, including its stealth and integration with drones, are under scrutiny as Russia struggles to match Western advancements in air combat technology.

Russia's government has introduced tax incentives for domestic companies to purchase unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as of January 1, 2023. This initiative aims to bolster the UAV sector amid ongoing military operations in Ukraine, where drones account for a significant portion of casualties. Despite these efforts, Russia remains dependent on foreign technology, particularly from China and Iran, indicating challenges in achieving technological autonomy.

Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted long-range strikes against missile infrastructure at the Kapustin Yar test range in Russia's Astrakhan region in January 2026. The strikes targeted hangar-type buildings used for pre-launch preparation of intermediate-range ballistic missiles, utilizing the FP-5 'Flamingo' missile. Damage was reported at the site, and Russian personnel were partially evacuated following the attacks. This operation is part of Ukraine's efforts to disrupt Russia's long-range strike capabilities.

Russia restarted production of the Tu-160M bombers at the Kazan Aviation Plant in 2023, promising four new units to the Russian Aerospace Forces, though only two have been delivered. These bombers are capable of launching missiles from standoff ranges, significantly enhancing Russia's long-range strike capabilities in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. The Tu-160M serves as a critical component of Russia's military strategy, especially in light of delays with the PAK DA stealth bomber program.

Russia's Foreign Ministry declared that it no longer feels bound by the New START treaty obligations following the lack of a formal U.S. response to President Putin's proposal for voluntary compliance. The ministry emphasized readiness to take military-technical countermeasures to address potential threats to national security. The New START treaty, signed in 2010, is set to expire in 2026.

Ukrainian forces launched a joint attack on Bryansk Oblast, Russia, on February 4, using HIMARS rocket systems, fixed-wing drones, and Neptune missiles. The assault resulted in damage to 20 residential buildings and injuries to one woman. Russian air defense successfully intercepted the Neptune missile and 11 drones during the attack.

NATO member states are conducting collective maritime operations to secure critical undersea infrastructure in Northern Europe, particularly in the Baltic Sea and Gulf of Finland. This includes the establishment of the Baltic Sentry operation and the use of uncrewed underwater vehicles for surveillance. The response follows significant incidents affecting undersea infrastructure, with ongoing efforts to enhance maritime readiness and situational awareness since 2016.

Ukraine has effectively neutralized the Russian Black Sea Fleet through targeted drone and missile strikes, resulting in the sinking or damage of approximately one-third of its 74 ships. The flagship Moskva was sunk in April 2022, and the fleet has since been forced to relocate to Novorossiysk due to ongoing threats. As of December 2024, the Russian Navy has shifted to a defensive posture, primarily launching long-range missile strikes from safer distances.

Uzbekistan has confirmed an order for C-390 Millennium military transport aircraft from Embraer as of February 3, 2026. This marks Uzbekistan as the first Central Asian nation to operate this aircraft, which will enhance its military transport and humanitarian capabilities. The C-390 is designed for various missions, including cargo transport and medical evacuation, and will play a key role in modernizing Uzbekistan's airlift capabilities.

The Republic of Uzbekistan has been revealed as the first Central Asian nation to operate the C-390 Millennium transport aircraft, primarily for transport and humanitarian missions. This acquisition significantly enhances the capabilities of the Uzbekistan Air Force. The announcement was made by Embraer at the Singapore Airshow on February 3, 2026, highlighting the aircraft's advanced features and versatility.

Iran's submarine fleet, including three Tareq-class and two Fateh-class submarines, is poised for potential deployment in response to U.S. military actions in the Persian Gulf and surrounding areas. Following President Trump's warnings regarding Iran's nuclear program, U.S. naval forces have increased their presence in the region. The Kilo-class submarines, known for their stealth capabilities, could complicate U.S. maritime security efforts.

The S-500 missile system, developed by Russia, is claimed to have capabilities to detect and engage advanced stealth aircraft such as the F-22 and F-35. However, reports indicate that its operational performance has been underwhelming, with failures to intercept missiles during its deployment in Crimea. The system's production has faced delays, and it has not yet been sold to major potential buyers like China or Iran.

China and Russia are struggling with the development of their next-generation stealth bombers, the H-20 and PAK DA, respectively. Both programs face technical challenges, including engine and avionics issues, and political obstacles related to collaboration. The PAK DA is not yet operational, and resource constraints in Russia are impacting its development.

Russia announced $15 billion in arms exports for 2025, focusing on military-technical cooperation with over 30 countries, particularly in Africa. President Putin stated that these contracts have been fulfilled despite Western sanctions. The revenue is intended to modernize defense enterprises and expand production capacity, although the long-term sustainability of these export levels is uncertain due to increased domestic military demand and ongoing sanctions.

Russia anticipates a significant increase in military technology exports, with orders expected to exceed 150 billion USD by 2025. President Putin announced that despite Western pressure, military contracts are being fulfilled with over 30 countries. Russia continues to strengthen military cooperation with key partners, including India, and is exploring new opportunities in Africa.