Analysis & Reports

In 2026, tensions are expected to escalate in multiple regions, including Greenland, Ukraine, Taiwan, Iran, and India-Pakistan. U.S. military readiness is under scrutiny as President Trump has threatened action over Greenland, while Ukraine faces ongoing conflict with Russia. China may see an opportunity to act against Taiwan, and Iran's internal crisis could provoke external military responses. The rivalry between India and Pakistan remains dangerous, with both nations emboldened after recent clashes.

Turkey laid the keel of the first naval support vessel for the Portuguese Navy at Ada Shipyard in Istanbul during the week of December 17, 2024. This event marks Turkey's first military ship export to a NATO member state. The contract includes two Auxiliary Oiler Replenishment Ships designed for joint operations and humanitarian missions, with delivery expected in 2028.

The Tehran City Government has initiated plans to construct wartime shelter facilities, including converting underground parking lots into dual-use spaces for parking and shelter. Two pilot locations have been identified, and existing facilities, including subway lines, may also serve as temporary shelters during emergencies. This initiative is part of a broader urban development plan to enhance civil defense capabilities in the city.

Syrian Transitional Government President Ahmad Sharrah visited Moscow on January 28, 2023, to reaffirm bilateral relations with Russia. Discussions focused on military cooperation and the geopolitical significance of Russian military bases in Syria. Sharrah acknowledged Russia's crucial role in stabilizing the region, despite previous conflicts between Syria and Russia. Experts suggest that the current military bases in Syria remain secure.

Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian stated that the Iranian armed forces are ready to respond to any aggression against the country's territory, airspace, and waters. He emphasized that the military is on high alert and prepared to act immediately. This statement reflects Iran's commitment to its territorial integrity amid recent U.S. threats of military intervention.

Iran's defense advisor warned that any U.S. military action would lead to an unprecedented response from Iran, targeting the U.S., Israel, and their allies. The U.S. has informed Israel of its military readiness, with preparations expected to conclude in two weeks. Trump indicated a significant naval presence heading towards Iran, suggesting an escalation in military tensions.

The U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier group arrived in the Persian Gulf on January 27, raising concerns about military buildup near Iran. The UN Secretary-General's spokesperson urged all parties to exercise maximum restraint to avoid escalating tensions and emphasized the importance of dialogue and diplomacy in addressing issues related to Iran.

U.S. President Trump announced that a fleet is heading towards Iran during a speech in Iowa on January 27, aiming to prompt Iran to negotiate an agreement with the United States.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel will not permit reconstruction in the Gaza Strip until it is fully demilitarized. He emphasized the focus on disarming Hamas and eliminating weapons and tunnels. Netanyahu also denied rumors of Turkish and Qatari involvement in Gaza's stabilization and reiterated Israel's opposition to a Palestinian state, asserting continued security control over the region. Additionally, he warned Iran of severe consequences if it attacks Israel.

The U.S. has indicated that Ukraine can only receive security guarantees after signing a peace agreement with Russia. Negotiations are ongoing in Abu Dhabi, with progress reported. Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that any peace agreement must uphold Ukraine's territorial integrity, while the U.S. has not imposed specific terms regarding territorial concessions. The Trump administration has signaled that U.S. security commitments may be contingent on Ukraine's acceptance of a peace agreement.

Iran's leadership issued a warning that any U.S. military strike would be treated as all-out war, coinciding with the deployment of the U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the U.S. 5th Fleet/CENTCOM waters on January 26, 2025. The presence of U.S. naval forces has heightened tensions, as Iran maintains a significant missile arsenal capable of targeting U.S. assets in the region. Recent military operations have not diminished Iran's missile capabilities, which remain a credible threat.

Hamas senior official Husam Badran stated that Hamas has fulfilled all terms of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip as of January 27. He accused Israel of delaying the implementation, particularly regarding the Rafah crossing and the withdrawal from occupied areas. Badran emphasized that the delay in transferring the last Israeli hostage's body was due to technical reasons and not Hamas's actions, and he expressed Hamas's willingness to transfer Gaza's management to a recognized committee.

A committee identified systemic flaws in Israel's arms procurement process on January 25, 2023, particularly concerning submarine and corvette purchases from Germany amid bribery allegations. The Israeli Navy's dealings and the handling of arms sales to Egypt were criticized for lacking clear leadership, jeopardizing national security. Prime Minister Netanyahu was criticized for approving arms sales without consulting senior security officials.

Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that a new round of negotiations involving Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia is scheduled for February 1 in Abu Dhabi. This follows the conclusion of the first round of talks on January 24, which addressed security issues among the three nations. U.S. Special Envoy Whitaker confirmed the plans via social media.

NATO experts highlighted the critical role of unmanned systems in maintaining strategic dominance in the Arctic during a briefing on January 22. They noted increasing incursions by Russian and Chinese vessels, emphasizing the need for unmanned vehicles to address maritime threats. The discussion included concerns over sabotage of underwater cables and the potential for conflict in the region, underscoring the importance of persistent surveillance capabilities.

Experts from the Center for European Policy Analysis emphasized the critical role of unmanned systems in maintaining NATO's strategic dominance in the Arctic during a briefing on January 22. They highlighted increasing incursions by Russian and Chinese vessels as a significant threat, with a focus on the need for unmanned underwater vehicles to protect against potential sabotage of underwater cables. The discussion underscored the challenges posed by harsh weather conditions in the region.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that the Iranian armed forces will respond forcefully to any infringement, emphasizing that Iran does not welcome war but will defend itself if necessary. He accused the U.S. of undermining negotiations and stated that Iran has taken all feasible diplomatic measures to avoid conflict. If war is imposed, Iran will have no choice but to resist.

Hezbollah leader Naeem Qassem stated that the group will not remain neutral in the face of any military actions against Iran, warning that such actions could lead to a broader regional conflict. He reaffirmed Hezbollah's support for the Iran-led resistance against Israel and highlighted the potential consequences of threats against Iran's leadership on regional stability.

The United Arab Emirates reaffirmed that it will not permit its territory, airspace, or waters to be used for any military actions against Iran. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized the importance of dialogue, de-escalation, and adherence to international law in addressing regional issues. This statement was made on January 26.

U.S. President Trump has threatened military action regarding Greenland, while Russia continues to gain ground in Ukraine. China views Taiwan as a potential target for military action, and Iran remains vulnerable yet capable of retaliation. Tensions between India and Pakistan persist following recent military skirmishes, indicating a precarious geopolitical landscape leading into 2026.