Borgu confirms the porosity of the Niger-Nigeria border — 46 dead in three villages targeted by motorcycle fighters

On February 15 at dawn, armed men on motorcycles attacked three villages in the local government area of Borgu, in Nigeria's Niger State — Tungan Makeri, Konkoso, and Alissa. Preliminary toll: 46 dead, dozens of abductions, houses burned. The deadliest attack occurred in Konkoso, where at least 38 people were shot or slaughtered. This is not an isolated incident. It confirms that the Kainji Forest, a protected area of 5,341 km² on the border between Niger and Kwara States, is no longer just a corridor for banditry — it has become a deployment zone for jihadist groups coming from the Sahel.

A geography that fosters insecurity

Borgu is located at the northwestern tip of Niger State, wedged between the border with Benin to the west and Kainji National Park to the south. This forest reserve, which was meant to protect wildlife, has become a sanctuary for a mosaic of armed groups: local criminal gangs (the "bandits"), factions of Boko Haram, and especially the newcomers — Lakurawa and the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM).

Lakurawa, a Hausa term likely derived from the French "les recrues," began operating in the states of Sokoto and Kebbi in 2018, initially presenting itself as protectors against bandits. Since 2025, the group has expanded southeast, towards Borgu. In July 2025, Lakurawa even raised its flag in the village of Kemenji, in Borgu, killing four people. The expansion is not accidental — it follows the logic of areas with low state presence.

The operational signature reveals Sahelian influence

The attacks on February 15 bear the marks of tactics developed in the Sahel: dawn raids by motorcycle fighters, indiscriminate shooting, burning of buildings to destroy symbols of the state (a police station was burned), and mass abductions. Jeremiah Timothy, a resident of Konkoso, told Reuters that the assailants entered the village around 6 a.m., shooting indiscriminately. Military aircraft flew over the area, but according to another resident, Abdullahi Adamu, "they operated freely without the presence of any security."

This freedom of movement is not new. In October 2025, JNIM claimed its first attack on Nigerian soil, near Woro, in Kwara State, killing more than 160 people. Woro is located just south of Kainji Park — exactly the same geographical area as Borgu. Last week, religious and community leaders from Borgu called on President Bola Tinubu to establish a military base in the region to put an end to the recurring attacks. The call went unheard in time.

Lakurawa, JNIM, or bandits? The distinction becomes blurred

Officially, the Niger State police refer to "suspected bandits." Spokesperson Wasiu Abiodun confirmed the attack on Tungan Makeri, mentioning six dead, houses set on fire, and abductions. But humanitarian sources on the ground speak of a methodology that goes beyond simple banditry. The Arise TV network explicitly compares the attacks to the operational modes of Boko Haram.

On the ground, the line between organized crime and jihadist insurgency is increasingly porous. Lakurawa has recruited local bandits by offering them protection, money, and religious legitimacy. JNIM, for its part, exploits the same grievances as in the Sahel — marginalization of pastoral Fulani communities, absence of the state, revenge against self-defense militias. On February 11, four days before the massacres in Borgu, the Nigerian armed forces announced the launch of an offensive against Boko Haram. The attack on the 15th could be a response.

The southern front of the Sahel is widening

From experience, when a jihadist group publicly claims its first attack in a new area (as JNIM did in Woro in October), it is never an isolated operation. It is a territorial marker. The three months between Woro and Borgu show a consolidation dynamic: the group tests security responses, recruits locally, establishes supply lines.

The Kainji Forest is becoming what the Malian Gourma or the Dori Forest in Burkina Faso were five years ago — a gray area where the state only controls the main roads during the day. At night, the territory belongs to armed groups. Nigeria is facing a "jihadization of banditry" in the northwest, combined with an intentional expansion of Sahelian groups like JNIM and Lakurawa to the south.

Next target: central Nigeria

If the trend continues, the states of Kwara and Niger will not be the only ones affected. The Kainji corridor offers direct access to Nigeria's Middle Belt, an area already weakened by intercommunal violence and farmer-herder conflicts. The Nigerian army is stretched between the Northeast (Boko Haram/ISWAP), the Northwest (bandits/Lakurawa), and now the central belt. Calls for the establishment of a military base in Borgu are rational, but they come too late. In the absence of a permanent presence, Kainji will remain what it is: a rear base for the next wave of attacks.

The 46 dead in Borgu are not an anomaly. It is the new norm for a region that is becoming the southern front of the Sahelian jihadist expansion.