Summary and Key Points: Canada’s plan to buy 88 F-35s is in limbo as Prime Minister Mark Carney weighs how much sovereignty the country cedes inside an American-run sustainment and software ecosystem.
-Senior leaders traveled to Lockheed Martin’s Fort Worth plant to celebrate the completion of the first Canadian jet, signaling that the initial 16 aircraft will likely be accepted.
-But Sweden’s Saab JAS 39 Gripen offer—built around jobs and national control—remains a live alternative. With Donald Trump applying pressure, the decision tests NORAD interoperability versus procurement independence.
Canada’s F-35 Deal Is Back in Play—But Mark Carney Still Won’t Commit to All 88
The Canadian military always astounds me. It goes back to when I was in the U.S. Army Basic Combat Training: a group of Canadian soldiers observing us asked if we ever took beer breaks.
I’m not sure to this day if that was a joke or a real concern.
So, it should not surprise me that the Canadian armed forces are still sending mixed messages to the United States.
I’m referring to the U.S.-Canada F-35 Lightning II saga. The Great White North is supposed to fully honor a deal for Lockheed Martin to send 88 F-35s to the Canadian air force.
But Prime Minister Mark Carney is playing hard-to-get.
U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning ll aircraft with Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 121 prepare for takeoff from Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, April 8, 2021. VMFA-121 is the first forward deployed Marine F-35B squadron, capable of providing close air support and conducting strike missions in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Jackson Ricker)
U.S. Air Force Maj. Kristin “BEO” Wolfe, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team commander and pilot, performs an aerial demonstration during the 2021 Thunder and Lightning Over Arizona Air Show and Open House at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Arizona, Nov. 5, 2021. The last air show and open house DM held showcasing U.S. military capabilities was in 2019. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Kaitlyn Ergish)
Capt. Andrew “Dojo” Olson, F-35 Demonstration Team pilot and commander performs a high-speed pass in an F-35A Lightning II during the Arctic Lightning Airshow July 13, 2019, at Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska. The aerial demonstration consists of 16 maneuvers that fully showcase the capabilities of the F-35A Lightning II. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Alexander Cook)
F-35. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.
He is coming off a curious speech he gave at the World Economic Forum in Davos, in which he lamented the lack of complete U.S. global hegemony and called for a new era with China as the pre-eminent world power. In Carney’s new construct, Canada may look to China for leadership rather than to its southern neighbors in North America.
Sweden Has a Good Offer on the Table
Does that mean Carney doesn’t see the United States as the main Canadian ally? This could be the case, and if so, Canada may just cancel the F-35 order and buy Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen instead.
The Gripen is a high-quality 4.5-generation warbird that would satisfy customers worldwide and enable Canada to protect its vast borders in style.
However, there is one stipulation in all of this. Canada has already paid for 16 F-35s. So they may receive the first batch and either cancel the rest or go all in on the full 88-airplane order.
Somebody’s Having a Party
So what should Canada do next? The Air Force decided to send a contingent to the Lockheed Martin facility in Fort Worth, Texas, for a celebration. This was a rousing reception to trumpet the first F-35 produced for Canada.
This was a decent gesture from the Canadians, a people who are known for their kindness and even-temperedness.
The commander of the Canadian air force even signed the fuselage of the first F-35.
Reading the Tea Leaves
What does this mean?
Will Canada honor the full F-35 agreement now?
This situation is becoming concerning. Perhaps America’s ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, is working behind the scenes with Carney’s national security team to coax the Canadians to buy more than the first 16 fighters.
Why else would Canada’s air force venture down to Texas for a party?
Trump is Being a Burr in the Saddle
That first F-35 with Canada’s name on it is receiving its final touches, and the air force representatives from Ottawa are paying proper respects despite the constant hectoring and needling from President Donald Trump.
“In his most recent salvo, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to withdraw certification and impose tariffs on Canadian-made aircraft. He has also recently threatened 100 per cent tariffs on all Canadian imports if Ottawa ‘makes a deal with China.,’” CBC Canada said to remind their readers that Trump’s antics are still a problem.
It’s All About Jobs
Now what?
Carney has not yet made a final decision on the remaining ordered F-35s. Sweden is making a deal that will allow parts and components, as well as final assembly, of some of the Gripens to be produced in Canada. This will bring more jobs to the country’s defense industrial base, although many F-35 parts are also produced in Canada. Either choice will spur economic development in Toronto and other cities.
Is This the End of a Good Relationship with the Americans?
Carney’s speech in Davos could mean different things vis-à-vis the United States. This could be a complete 180-degree turn for the Americans, allowing the Canadians to work more closely with Sweden. Or it could be a means of pressuring Trump to ease some of the tariff warfare tactics.
The Canadian government has not yet made a decision on the F-35 agreement, and Americans are wondering whether the whole deal will be in jeopardy. To be sure, the Canadian air force contingent visiting the Lockheed Martin plant is a good sign, but Carney is still keeping his cards close to his chest.
President Trump should make a personal plea to Carney to honor the 88 F-35 commitment. But pride always seems to get in the way. Why should Carney budge if he thinks that Sweden could sweeten their already enticing offer? Does that mean Canada could choose the Gripen if the Swedes cut the price tag on the JAS 39? That remains to be seen.
New Development Could Be a Positive Sign for the F-35
The latest celebration with Lockheed Martin is a good sign for the Americans, though. It looks like Ottawa will take the first tranche of fighters. It would be a pity if the Canadians went for the Gripen. NORAD has raised concerns that Canada’s potential mix of F-35s and JAS 39 Gripens would be disadvantageous to North American security. The idea is that both nations should always have interoperable communications and connectivity in future warfare. Canadian F-35s square the circle.
The Indians Excel at Economic Statecraft
Carney may listen to these worries about NORAD. The Canadians seem to be playing the game like India. The Indians are known for being unaligned with the Americans and Russians. This dates back to the Cold War, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi just struck a trade deal with Trump that will help relations.
Carney may copy how the Indians used geoeconomics and play the Americans off against the Swedes. If that’s the case, the F-35 complete deal may remain on pause. We will continue to cover this story to see what happens with the full F-35 agreement. The suspense is palpable, and a final decision could come any day. Hopefully, the Canadians can still consider the Americans to be great allies and end up flying 88 F-35s someday.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Author of now over 3,000 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.