Congress’s defense advocates take big hit in 2026 midterm elections

WASHINGTON — The Democratic wave that swept control of Congress on Tuesday took with it a number of notable defense experts from the House and Senate, with potentially huge consequences for defense policy on Capitol Hill looming. 

Results are still flowing in, but Democrats will go into the 120th Congress with at least 228 seats in the House, having picked up 25 so far. NBC News projects that Democrats will ultimately win around 258 seats when all 435 seats have been decided — a decisive margin that gives Democrat leaders in the House a mandate to take bolder legislative action.

Senate races in two states — Alaska and Mississippi — have yet to be called, but as of publication, Democrats have gained seven seats in the upper chamber, taking a 54-44 lead. Even if Democrats take both outstanding seats, the party will lack the 60 votes needed to bypass the filibuster without GOP support. 

What does seem clear: Expect major reshufflings of both the House and Senate defense related committees, thanks to a mix of upsets and retirements. 

The so-called “blue tsunami” resulted in a loss for Maine Sen. Susan Collins, chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Other GOP lawmakers in the defense world — such as Virginia Rep. Rob Wittman, head of the House Armed Services Committee’s (SASC) tactical air and land subpanel — find themselves still gripped in a competitive fight this morning, with some big defense names in predominantly red states potentially facing a shocking upset. 

Meanwhile, Democrat defense leaders — including Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed, currently the ranking member on the Senate Armed Services Committee, Delaware Sen. Chris Coons, ranking member on the Senate appropriations defense subcommittee, and Washington Rep. Adam Smith, HASC ranking member — all handily won their reelection races and are poised to take over their respective defense committees.

Here’s a breakdown of what happened in the most important defense races: 

Maine: Sen. Susan Collins loses to Troy Jackson

Sen. Susan Collins’s 30-year Senate career ended last night after Democrat challenger Troy Jackson emerged victorious in one of the most dramatic races of the midterms. 

As chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Collins is one of the most consequential deciders of the defense budget, having a key role in setting defense and nondefense topline spending levels. Before claiming the gavel, Collins led its defense subcommittee, where she advocated for higher defense budgets and aid for Ukraine. She was one of three Senate Republicans to vote against the confirmation of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. 

ProPublica recently reported that in 2024 the FBI intended to launch a pay-to-play investigation after a former defense contractor told the agency his company had donated to Collins’s political action committee in exchange for winning government contracts in Maine. Collins’s office called the claims “categorically false.”  

Jackson is a fifth-generation logger who became the Democratic challenger after Marine Corps veteran Graham Platner withdrew due to allegations of sexual misconduct. He did not make national security issues a centerpiece of his campaign, but listed“No U.S. tax dollars to Israel’s military” as a priority policy on his website. 

Virginia: Rep. Rob Wittman vs Shannon Taylor still undecided

The Associated Press has not called the race for Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, but signs don’t look great for Rep. Rob Wittman, who currently sits as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee’s (HASC) Tactical Air and Land Subcommittee. 

Wittman faces Democratic challenger Shannon Taylor, a prosecutor who centered her campaign on anti-corruption and affordability, who has already claimed victory. With 98 percent of votes in, Taylor leads by about 2 percent, according to the AP.

If Wittman does survive, he will likely make a play to become the HASC’s top republican, should current chairman Mike Rogers, R-Ala., not seek a waiver to retain his place on the committee.  (Under current House GOP rules, Republicans can only spend three consecutive terms as a committee’s chairperson or ranking member without seeking a waiver.)

Reps. Trent Kelly, who leads the seapower subcommittee, and Ronny Jackson, who leads the intelligence and special operations subcommittee, have also expressed interest in the top GOP spot.

Wittman is highly influential on matters concerning the Air Force and Navy, having previously served as the head of HASC’s Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee. He has championed higher defense spending and larger investments in low-cost attritable weaponry.

California: Rep. Ken Calvert vs. Rep. Young Kim still undecided

The intra-GOP battle for California’s 40th Congressional District is still ongoing, with only about 40 percent of votes recorded at the time of publication. Rep. Ken Calvert, chairman of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, currently has a 9 percent lead over fellow Republican Rep. Young Kim. (There is no Democratic challenger in this race, as only the top two vote-getters advance from the primary to the general election.) 

As the top House defense appropriator, Calvert has endorsed higher defense spending, and has taken particular interest in efforts to increase defense manufacturing and boost Defense Department organizations aimed at bolstering innovation. 

Should Calvert emerge victorious in the midterms, he will need to seek a waiver to remain as HAC-D’s top Republican and has indicated he will do so. 

Kim, who was first elected to Congress in 2020, does not sit on any of the congressional defense committees. However, she is a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee as the chairwoman of its East Asia and Pacific subcommittee. She is also a member of the House select committee on China. 

Other Key Races:

Rep. Adam Smith defeats Doug Basler: Smith, HASC’s top Democrat, beat Republican challenger Doug Basler for Washington’s 9th Congressional District. With Democrats set to control the House, Smith is poised to once again become HASC chairman. 

Rep. Mike Rogers defeats Lee McInnis: The race between HASC Chairman Rogers and Democrat challenger Lee McInnis was not expected to be competitive, and Rogers won handily in Alabama’s solidly Republican 3rd District. Now the big question is whether he seeks a waiver to stay on as HASC’s top Republican.

Rep. Mike Turner vs Kristina Knickerbocker still undecided: Turner, a longtime HASC member and previous chairman of the House intelligence committee, is still locked in a battle for Ohio’s 10th District against Democrat challenger Kristina Knickerbocker. With 98 percent of the votes counted, Knickerbocker is up by about 1 percent, according to the AP. 

Rep. Scott DesJarlais vs Victoria Broderick still undecided: The AP hasn’t called the race for Tennessee’s Fourth District, which could be an upset if Democrat challenger Victoria Broderick ousts GOP Rep. DesJarlais, who leads HASC’s strategic forces committee. Broderick is up by only a couple fractions of a percentage point. 

Rep. Joe Wilson vs Zyon Khalifa still undecided: Wilson, another longtime HASC member, is still locking horns with Democrat challenger Zyon Khalifa for South Carolina’s 2nd District. Wilson currently leads by 1 percent, according to the AP. 

Rep. Jen Kiggans loses to former Rep. Elaine Luria: Former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria defeated Kiggans, a Republican member of HASC, for Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District. Kiggans is a former Navy helicopter pilot, while Luria is a former naval officer who operated naval reactors onboard warships. Both are strong advocates for shipbuilding. 

Rep. Eugene Vindman defeats Douglas Ollivant: Vindman, a Democrat who currently serves on HASC, won a second term representing Virginia’s 7th District after defeating Republican Douglas Ollivant. Both Vindman and Ollivant are retired Army lieutenant colonels who listed veterans’ issues as key priorities.

Rep. Marcy Kaptur defeats Derek Merrin: Kaptur, a Democratic defense appropriator, emerged victorious in Ohio’s 9th District— a seat that Republicans had hoped to flip after recent redistricting made it more GOP-friendly. Kaptur beat Republican Derek Merrin, a former state representative. 

Rep. David Valadao vs Randy Villegas still undecided: The race between Valadao, a Republican on the defense appropriations subcommittee, and Democrat Randy Villegas has not been called. Valadao faces the same conundrum as Kaptur, as California’s 22nd District was recently redrawn and is considered a tossup.

Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart vs Nicole Locklin still undecided: The AP hasn’t called the race for Florida’s 26 District. With 99 percent of votes in, Diaz-Balart, a House defense appropriator, leads Democrat challenger Nicole Locklin by less than one percent.

Sen. Dan Sullivan vs former Rep. Mary Peltola still undecided: The Associated Press has not yet called Alaska’s Senate race, with Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, a longtime member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, currently leading by less than a percentage point. Sullivan finds himself embroiled in a four-way race with a strange twist. Not only is he taking on former Rep. Mary Peltola, his Democratic challenger, he also faces an independent candidate who shares his name: former schoolteacher Dan J. Sullivan Jr. The Trump administration has sued to block the certification of the race if a Republican loses, citing name confusion.

Former Rep. Mike Rogers loses to Abdul El-Sayed:  Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a public health administrator, won the Michigan senate seat. He beat former Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican and former chairman of the United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.