Cut to US aid would impact Israeli acquisition timelines, spending: Analysts

PORTLAND, Maine — US President Donald Trump’s statement that he would be ending aid to Israel by the end of 2026 has been met largely with confusion and non-comments within Jerusalem, as it is unclear exactly what he meant or how that plan would go into effect.

However, if aid is cut off, it would have a negative impact on Israeli defense spending and the ability to quickly procure new weapon systems, analysts told Breaking Defense this week.

Israel receives $4 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) money — funds that are gifted from the US to a partner country which must be reinvested in American weapons — annually as part of a ten-year agreement reached during the Obama administration. That agreement expires next year, so there has been an expectation that something would change; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has for months been focusing on Israel becoming more self-sufficient during the recent war, advocating for Israel to be a “super Sparta” in the region.  

But the sudden announcement from Trump comes at a delicate time for Netanyahu, who is trying to form a government following an Oct. 27 election. Opposition leaders slammed the prime minister in the wake of the US statement.

It also reflects a growing anti-Israel sentiment in the United States on both sides of the political aisle. Trump made the announcement on election day, in what some viewed as a last minute attempt to woo voters, and days after Trump’s statement, US Vice President JD Vance pointed to the need to change the US relationship with Israel as an issue.  

Gadi Eisenkot, the former IDF chief of staff who is the leading contender to replace Netanyahu, said the US announcement reflects badly on Netanyahu, noting that “the fact that the security establishment, along with Israeli citizens, is learning about a change in the strategic relationship framework through the media highlights just how much Benjamin Netanyahu’s conduct poses a genuine danger.”

On a structural level, “Ending aid won’t necessarily change anything immediately, but it does make deals for different weaponry a little more complicated to be able to get for them approval,” Yaakov Katz, a fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute and author of “Shadow Strike,” a book about Israel’s raid on Syria’s nuclear program, told Breaking Defense.

Katz, who called Trump’s decision to end aid a year early “deeply concerning” in a post on X, told Breaking Defense that the US has also benefitted by the relationship with Israel.

“When you have the money that’s on the table and you have to spend it in America, then you have an additional pressure point to be able to get approval for those arms sales to go through,” he said. “When that money is not there and no longer available or no longer immediate, then you are like every other country that comes to ask to buy weapons.”

Israel is already scrambling to make sure that a deal for more Apache helicopters goes through. Israel is also in the midst of acquiring more F-15s, F-35s, refuelers, heavy-lift helicopters and numerous munitions.

Jacob Nagel, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Breaking Defense that cutting military aid to Israel will have a “big impact” for Jerusalem.

Nagel, who served as Netanyahu’s national security adviser and as acting head of Israel’s National Security Council, has played a key role in Israel’s procurement program, heading a committee examining recommendations for the defense budget. While Israel’s economy is strong and the aid represents less than one percent of Israel’s $600 billion GDP, Israel’s record-breaking recent defense budget leaves the country “stretched to the end,” he added.

Losing that funding “will come at the expense of important issues,” Nagel warned.

Eran Lerman, a former deputy for foreign policy and international affairs at the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, agreed the announcement came as an abrupt surprise.

However, Lerman, who currently serves as the vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, was less concerned than others, saying: “Ultimately it is not difficult for a nation with a GDP of $600 billion to find 0.6% from other sources — such as coalition handouts — as long as the commitment to Israel’s QME [Qualitative Military Edge].”

The issue of maintaining Israel’s QME has been under the spotlight over the last several years as Israel seeks to acquire more advanced systems.

Part of Lerman’s thinking is that Israeli funding has dropped off before. In the 1980s, Israel benefitted from an Economic Support Fund (ESF) which included $1.5 billion of annual aid. “When we chose to end the ESF back in the 1990s we did so gradually over ten years; this sounds different, but the devil is in the details,” he said, but ultimately, Israel was ok.

Whether Trump will actually follow through on threats to end the aid agreement early, whether Congress will allow it, and if a new memorandum of understanding will be negotiated are all issues that will be sorted out in the coming weeks — one way or another. 

Just last month, Nagel wrote that “signing a new MOU adapted to changing realities will require a focused, uncompromising effort by all relevant parties. It will preserve the strategic alliance and cooperation with the United States and reaffirm America’s long-standing commitment to Israel, despite the changes taking place in the relationship.”